{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,28]],"date-time":"2026-09-28T18:33:07Z","timestamp":1790620387332,"version":"4.1.0"},"reference-count":25,"publisher":"The Royal Society","issue":"22","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2007,8,28]],"date-time":"2007-08-28T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1188259200000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/royalsociety.org\/journals\/ethics-policies\/data-sharing-mining\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["royalsocietypublishing.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["J. R. Soc. Interface."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2008,5,6]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>Disease control programmes for an influenza pandemic will rely initially on the deployment of antiviral drugs such as Tamiflu, until a vaccine becomes available. However, such control programmes may be severely hampered by logistical constraints such as a finite stockpile of drugs and a limit on the distribution rate. We study the effects of such constraints using a compartmental modelling approach.<\/jats:p>\n                  <jats:p>\n                    We find that the most aggressive possible antiviral programme minimizes the final epidemic size, even if this should lead to premature stockpile run-out. Moreover, if the basic reproductive number\n                    <jats:italic>R<\/jats:italic>\n                    <jats:sub>0<\/jats:sub>\n                    is not too high, such a policy can avoid run-out altogether. However, where run-out would occur, such benefits must be weighed against the possibility of a higher epidemic peak than if a more conservative policy were followed.\n                  <\/jats:p>\n                  <jats:p>Where there is a maximum number of treatment courses that can be dispensed per day, reflecting a manpower limit on antiviral distribution, our results suggest that such a constraint is unlikely to have a significant impact (i.e. increasing the final epidemic size by more than 10%), as long as drug courses sufficient to treat at least 6% of the population can be dispensed per day.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1098\/rsif.2007.1152","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2007,8,30]],"date-time":"2007-08-30T10:54:40Z","timestamp":1188471280000},"page":"545-553","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1098\/crossmarkpolicy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":40,"title":["Antiviral treatment for the control of pandemic influenza: some logistical constraints"],"prefix":"10.1098","volume":"5","author":[{"given":"N","family":"Arinaminpathy","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute for Emergent Infections of Humans, James Martin 21st Century School, Department of Zoology, University of OxfordOxford OX1 3PS, UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"A.R","family":"McLean","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute for Emergent Infections of Humans, James Martin 21st Century School, Department of Zoology, University of OxfordOxford OX1 3PS, UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"175","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2007,8,28]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_3_3_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rsif.2006.0112"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_3_1","unstructured":"Barnes B. Glass K. & Becker N. G. In press. The role of health care workers and antiviral drugs in the control of pandemic influenza. Math. Biosci . (doi:10.1016\/j.mbs.2007.02.008)."},{"key":"e_1_3_3_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJMra052211"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jtbi.2005.11.026"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rsif.2006.0161"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_7_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pmed.0040013"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/infdis\/124.5.473"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_9_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJMoa054512"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_10_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1086\/375056"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_11_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/nature04017"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_12_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.vaccine.2006.05.079"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_13_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3201\/eid1209.041344"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_14_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rspa.1927.0118"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_15_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/nature02746"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_16_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pmed.0040015"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_17_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1115717"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_18_1","unstructured":"McCaw J. M. & McVernon J. In press. Prophylaxis or treatment? Optimal use of an antiviral stockpile during an influenza pandemic. Math. Biosci . (doi:10.1016\/j.mbs.2007.02.003)."},{"key":"e_1_3_3_19_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/nature03063"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_20_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Murray J.D. 1989 Mathematical biology. Berlin Germany:Springer.","DOI":"10.1007\/978-3-662-08539-4"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_21_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1001\/jama.283.8.1016"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_22_1","unstructured":"UK Health Departments 2005 Pandemic flu\u2014UK influenza pandemic contingency plan . See. http:\/\/www.dh.gov.uk\/assetRoot\/04\/12\/17\/44\/04121744.pdf."},{"key":"e_1_3_3_23_1","unstructured":"US Department of Health and Human Services 2005 HHS pandemic influenza plan . See. http:\/\/www.hhs.gov\/pandemicflu\/plan\/pdf\/HHSPandemicInfluenzaPlan.pdf."},{"key":"e_1_3_3_24_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0025-5564(02)00108-6"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_25_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/jac\/dki018"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_26_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1090350"}],"container-title":["Journal of The Royal Society Interface"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/royalsocietypublishing.org\/doi\/pdf\/10.1098\/rsif.2007.1152","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/royalsocietypublishing.org\/doi\/full-xml\/10.1098\/rsif.2007.1152","content-type":"application\/xml","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/royalsocietypublishing.org\/doi\/pdf\/10.1098\/rsif.2007.1152","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,12]],"date-time":"2026-05-12T21:19:53Z","timestamp":1778620793000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"http:\/\/royalsocietypublishing.org\/rsif\/article\/5\/22\/545-553\/65363"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2007,8,28]]},"references-count":25,"journal-issue":{"issue":"22","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2008,5,6]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1098\/rsif.2007.1152"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1098\/rsif.2007.1152","relation":{},"ISSN":["1742-5689","1742-5662"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1742-5689","type":"print"},{"value":"1742-5662","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2007,8,28]]}}}