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Such inferences are important as they can help to guide the targeting of mitigation strategies and to evaluate the potential effectiveness of such strategies. This article reviews the process of back-calculation with a particular emphasis on more recent applications concerning deliberate and naturally occurring aerosolized releases. The techniques can be broadly split into two themes: the simpler temporal models and the more sophisticated spatio-temporal models. The former require input data in the form of cases' symptom onset times, whereas the latter require additional spatial information such as the cases' home and work locations. A key aspect in the back-calculation process is the incubation period distribution, which forms the initial topic for consideration. Links between atmospheric dispersion modelling, within-host dynamics and back-calculation are outlined in detail. An example of how back-calculation can inform mitigation strategies completes the review by providing improved estimates of the duration of antibiotic prophylaxis that would be required in the response to an inhalational anthrax outbreak.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1098\/rsif.2015.0096","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2015,4,17]],"date-time":"2015-04-17T18:23:51Z","timestamp":1429295031000},"page":"20150096","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1098\/crossmark-policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":22,"title":["A review of back-calculation techniques and their potential to inform mitigation strategies with application to non-transmissible acute infectious diseases"],"prefix":"10.1098","volume":"12","author":[{"given":"Joseph R.","family":"Egan","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Bioterrorism and Emerging Disease Analysis, Microbial Risk Assessment and Behavioural Science, Emergency Response Department, Health Protection and Medical Directorate, Public Health England, Porton Down SP4 0JG, UK"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Ian M.","family":"Hall","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Bioterrorism and Emerging Disease Analysis, Microbial Risk Assessment and Behavioural Science, Emergency Response Department, Health Protection and Medical Directorate, Public Health England, Porton Down SP4 0JG, UK"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"175","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2015,5,6]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_3_3_2_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/01621459.1988.10478599"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_3_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/jnci\/80.12.900"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_4_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.4780080105"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_5_2","unstructured":"Department of Health and The Welsh Office. 1988 Short-term prediction of HIV infection and AIDS in England and Wales. 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