{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,9]],"date-time":"2026-10-09T06:41:43Z","timestamp":1791528103452,"version":"4.3.4"},"reference-count":51,"publisher":"The Royal Society","issue":"116","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2016,3,1]],"date-time":"2016-03-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1456790400000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/royalsociety.org\/journals\/ethics-policies\/data-sharing-mining\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100003976","name":"Israel National Institute for Health Policy Research","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","award":["2011\/24\/\u0273"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["2011\/24\/\u0273"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100003976","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"crossref"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["royalsocietypublishing.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["J. R. Soc. Interface."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2016,3]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>Intensified surveillance during the 2009 A\/H1N1 influenza pandemic in Israel resulted in large virological and serological datasets, presenting a unique opportunity for investigating the pandemic dynamics. We employ a conditional likelihood approach for fitting a disease transmission model to virological and serological data, conditional on clinical data. The model is used to reconstruct the temporal pattern of the pandemic in Israel in five age-groups and evaluate the factors that shaped it. We estimate the reproductive number at the beginning of the pandemic to be<jats:italic>R<\/jats:italic>= 1.4. We find that the combined effect of varying absolute humidity conditions and school vacations (SVs) is responsible for the infection pattern, characterized by three epidemic waves. Overall attack rate is estimated at 32% (28\u201335%) with a large variation among the age-groups: the highest attack rates within school children and the lowest within the elderly. This pattern of infection is explained by a combination of the age-group contact structure and increasing immunity with age. We assess that SVs increased the overall attack rates by prolonging the pandemic into the winter. Vaccinating school children would have been the optimal strategy for minimizing infection rates in all age-groups.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1098\/rsif.2016.0099","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2016,3,30]],"date-time":"2016-03-30T09:15:26Z","timestamp":1459329326000},"page":"20160099","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1098\/crossmark-policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":7,"title":["Model-based reconstruction of an epidemic using multiple datasets: understanding influenza A\/H1N1 pandemic dynamics in Israel"],"prefix":"10.1098","volume":"13","author":[{"given":"R.","family":"Yaari","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Bio-statistical Unit, The Gertner Institute for Epidemiology and Health Policy Research, Chaim Sheba Medical Center, Tel-Hashomer 52621, Israel"},{"name":"Zoology Department, Tel-Aviv University, Ramat Aviv 69778, Israel"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"G.","family":"Katriel","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Mathematics, ORT Braude College, Karmiel 21610, Israel"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"L.","family":"Stone","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Zoology Department, Tel-Aviv University, Ramat Aviv 69778, Israel"},{"name":"School of Mathematical and Geospatial Sciences, RMIT University, Melbourne, Victoria 3001, Australia"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"E.","family":"Mendelson","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Central Virology Laboratory, Ministry of Health, Chaim Sheba Medical Center, Tel-Hashomer 52621, Israel"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"M.","family":"Mandelboim","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Central Virology Laboratory, Ministry of Health, Chaim Sheba Medical Center, Tel-Hashomer 52621, Israel"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"A.","family":"Huppert","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Bio-statistical Unit, The Gertner Institute for Epidemiology and Health Policy Research, Chaim Sheba Medical Center, Tel-Hashomer 52621, Israel"},{"name":"Sackler Faculty of Medicine, Tel-Aviv University, Ramat Aviv 69778, Israel"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"175","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2016,3]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_3_5_2_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.aaa4339"},{"key":"e_1_3_5_3_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/1471-2334-11-92"},{"key":"e_1_3_5_4_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rsif.2010.0515"},{"key":"e_1_3_5_5_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.0806852106"},{"key":"e_1_3_5_6_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1128\/AEM.02674-09"},{"key":"e_1_3_5_7_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pbio.1000316"},{"key":"e_1_3_5_8_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/aje\/kws259"},{"key":"e_1_3_5_9_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rsif.2013.0298"},{"key":"e_1_3_5_10_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/aje\/kwq347"},{"key":"e_1_3_5_11_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.7326\/0003-4819-156-3-201202070-00005"},{"key":"e_1_3_5_12_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/1471-2334-12-298"},{"key":"e_1_3_5_13_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1004337"},{"key":"e_1_3_5_14_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/nature06732"},{"key":"e_1_3_5_15_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/S0950268809002556"},{"key":"e_1_3_5_16_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1002425"},{"key":"e_1_3_5_17_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pmed.1000436"},{"key":"e_1_3_5_18_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2013.08.001"},{"key":"e_1_3_5_19_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1097\/EDE.0000000000000055"},{"key":"e_1_3_5_20_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1103002108"},{"key":"e_1_3_5_21_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rsif.2014.1244"},{"key":"e_1_3_5_22_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/irv.12071"},{"key":"e_1_3_5_23_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2011.11.001"},{"key":"e_1_3_5_24_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pmed.1001527"},{"key":"e_1_3_5_25_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1303117110"},{"key":"e_1_3_5_26_2","unstructured":"Sever L. 2011 Characteristics of the 2009 A\/H1N1 influenza patients in the community and hospitals (table\u00a013). Master's thesis School of Public Health Tel-Aviv University."},{"key":"e_1_3_5_27_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pmed.0050074"},{"key":"e_1_3_5_28_2","unstructured":"Israel Meteorological Service (IMS). Meteorological database archive. See https:\/\/data.gov.il\/\/ims (accessed 15 March 2016)."},{"key":"e_1_3_5_29_2","unstructured":"Google Trends: Results of search for \u2018Flu\u2019 in Israel between June 2009 and March 2010. See https:\/\/www.google.com\/trends\/explore#q=%D7%A9%D7%A4%D7%A2%D7%AA&geo=IL&date=6%2F200910m&cmpt=geo&tz=Etc%2FGMT-3 (accessed 16 July 2015)."},{"key":"e_1_3_5_30_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1142\/S1793524512500660"},{"key":"e_1_3_5_31_2","unstructured":"Israel Central Bureau of Statistics. 2010 Statistical abstract of Israel 2010 Table 2.19. 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