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Interface."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2016,8]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>Infectious diseases exert a large and in many contexts growing burden on human health, but violate most of the assumptions of classical epidemiological statistics and hence require a mathematically sophisticated approach. Viral shedding data are collected during human studies\u2014either where volunteers are infected with a disease or where existing cases are recruited\u2014in which the levels of live virus produced over time are measured. These have traditionally been difficult to analyse due to strong, complex correlations between parameters. Here, we show how a Bayesian approach to the inverse problem together with modern Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms based on information geometry can overcome these difficulties and yield insights into the disease dynamics of two of the most prevalent human pathogens\u2014influenza and norovirus\u2014as well as Ebola virus disease.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1098\/rsif.2016.0279","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2016,8,24]],"date-time":"2016-08-24T09:08:14Z","timestamp":1472029694000},"page":"20160279","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1098\/crossmark-policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":17,"title":["Bayesian uncertainty quantification for transmissibility of influenza, norovirus and Ebola using information geometry"],"prefix":"10.1098","volume":"13","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-5835-8062","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Thomas","family":"House","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Mathematics, University of Manchester, Oxford Road, Manchester M13 9PL, UK"},{"name":"Warwick Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research Centre (WIDER), Warwick Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Gibbet Hill Road, Coventry CV4 7AL, UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Ashley","family":"Ford","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Mathematics, University of Bristol, Bristol BS8 1TW, UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Shiwei","family":"Lan","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Statistics, University of Warwick, Gibbet Hill Road, Coventry CV4 7AL, UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Samuel","family":"Bilson","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Warwick Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research Centre (WIDER), Warwick Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Gibbet Hill Road, Coventry CV4 7AL, UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Elizabeth","family":"Buckingham-Jeffery","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Warwick Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research Centre (WIDER), Warwick Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Gibbet Hill Road, Coventry CV4 7AL, UK"},{"name":"Complexity Science Doctoral Training Centre, University of Warwick, Gibbet Hill Road, Coventry CV4 7AL, UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Mark","family":"Girolami","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Statistics, University of Warwick, Gibbet Hill Road, Coventry CV4 7AL, UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"175","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2016,8]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_3_3_2_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.aaa4339"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_3_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2014.09.004"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_4_2","volume-title":"Modeling infectious diseases in humans and animals","author":"Keeling MJ","year":"2007"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_5_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1515\/9781400845620","volume-title":"Mathematical tools for understanding infectious diseases dynamics","author":"Diekmann O","year":"2013"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_6_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.mbs.2015.04.006"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_7_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.0307506101"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_8_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S1473-3099(09)70069-6"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_9_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.vaccine.2010.01.002"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_10_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3201\/eid1209.041344"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_11_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S2213-2600(14)70041-4"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_12_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1001076"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_13_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S1473-3099(09)70176-8"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_14_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3201\/eid1908.130472"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_15_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.287.5453.667"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_16_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/1471-2334-9-187"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_17_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2011.03.003"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_18_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.mbs.2007.07.005"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_19_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1086\/657088"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_20_2","article-title":"Temporal changes in Ebola transmission in Sierra Leone and implications for control requirements: a real-time modelling study","volume":"7","author":"Camacho A","year":"2015","journal-title":"PLoS Curr. 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