{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,1]],"date-time":"2026-04-01T21:29:30Z","timestamp":1775078970638,"version":"3.50.1"},"reference-count":65,"publisher":"The Royal Society","issue":"167","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2020,6,1]],"date-time":"2020-06-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1590969600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2020,6,1]],"date-time":"2020-06-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1590969600000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000082","name":"Division of Graduate Education","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","award":["1735359"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["1735359"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000082","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"crossref"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000121","name":"Division of Mathematical Sciences","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","award":["1761612"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["1761612"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000121","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"crossref"}]},{"name":"Mansueto Institute for Urban Innovation"},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000057","name":"National Institute of General Medical Sciences","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000057","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"crossref"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["royalsocietypublishing.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["J. R. Soc. Interface."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2020,6]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>\n                    Predicting arbovirus re-emergence remains challenging in regions with limited off-season transmission and intermittent epidemics. Current mathematical models treat the depletion and replenishment of susceptible (non-immune) hosts as the principal drivers of re-emergence, based on established understanding of highly transmissible childhood diseases with frequent epidemics. We extend an analytical approach to determine the number of \u2018skip\u2019 years preceding re-emergence for diseases with continuous seasonal transmission, population growth and under-reporting. Re-emergence times are shown to be highly sensitive to small changes in low\n                    <jats:italic>R<\/jats:italic>\n                    <jats:sub>0<\/jats:sub>\n                    (secondary cases produced from a primary infection in a fully susceptible population). We then fit a stochastic Susceptible\u2013Infected\u2013Recovered (SIR) model to observed case data for the emergence of dengue serotype DENV1 in Rio de Janeiro. This aggregated city-level model substantially over-estimates observed re-emergence times either in terms of skips or outbreak probability under forward simulation. The inability of susceptible depletion and replenishment to explain re-emergence under \u2018well-mixed\u2019 conditions at a city-wide scale demonstrates a key limitation of SIR aggregated models, including those applied to other arboviruses. The predictive uncertainty and high skip sensitivity to epidemiological parameters suggest a need to investigate the relevant spatial scales of susceptible depletion and the scaling of microscale transmission dynamics to formulate simpler models that apply at coarse resolutions.\n                  <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1098\/rsif.2020.0273","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2020,6,23]],"date-time":"2020-06-23T19:05:28Z","timestamp":1592939128000},"page":"20200273","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1098\/crossmark-policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":9,"title":["Predicting re-emergence times of dengue epidemics at low reproductive numbers: DENV1 in Rio de Janeiro, 1986\u20131990"],"prefix":"10.1098","volume":"17","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-1131-9952","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Rahul","family":"Subramanian","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Division of Biological Sciences, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-7458-2782","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Victoria","family":"Romeo-Aznar","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Ecology and Evolution, and, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, USA"},{"name":"Manseuto Institute for Urban Innovation, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-4190-0174","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Edward","family":"Ionides","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Statistics, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Claudia T.","family":"Code\u00e7o","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Programa de Computa\u00e7\u00e3o Cient\u00edfica, Funda\u00e7\u00e3o Oswaldo Cruz, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3575-7233","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Mercedes","family":"Pascual","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Ecology and Evolution, and, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, USA"},{"name":"Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, NM, 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