{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,30]],"date-time":"2026-04-30T07:00:15Z","timestamp":1777532415341,"version":"3.51.4"},"reference-count":38,"publisher":"The Royal Society","issue":"169","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2020,8,1]],"date-time":"2020-08-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1596240000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/royalsociety.org\/-\/media\/journals\/author\/Licence-to-Publish-20062019-final.pdf"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2020,8,1]],"date-time":"2020-08-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1596240000000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/royalsociety.org\/journals\/ethics-policies\/data-sharing-mining\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100003844","name":"Inamori Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","award":["NA"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["NA"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100003844","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"crossref"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001700","name":"Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","award":["NA"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["NA"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001700","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"crossref"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100003382","name":"Core Research for Evolutional Science and Technology","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","award":["JPMJCR1413"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["JPMJCR1413"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100003382","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"crossref"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001691","name":"Japan Society for the Promotion of Science","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","award":["17H04701, 17H05808, 18H04895 and 19H01074"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["17H04701, 17H05808, 18H04895 and 19H01074"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001691","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"crossref"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100009619","name":"Japan Agency for Medical Research and Development","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","award":["JP18fk0108050"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["JP18fk0108050"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100009619","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"crossref"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["royalsocietypublishing.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["J. R. Soc. Interface."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2020,8]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>The mainstream interventions used during the 2014\u20132016 Ebola epidemic were contact tracing and case isolation. The Ebola outbreak in Nigeria that formed part of the 2014\u20132016 epidemic demonstrated the effectiveness of control interventions with a 100% hospitalization rate. Here, we aim to explicitly estimate the protective effect of case isolation, reconstructing the time events of onset of illness and hospitalization as well as the transmission network. We show that case isolation reduced the reproduction number and shortened the serial interval. Employing Bayesian inference with the Markov chain Monte Carlo method for parameter estimation and assuming that the reproduction number exponentially declines over time, the protective effect of case isolation was estimated to be 39.7% (95% credible interval: 2.4%\u201382.1%). The individual protective effect of case isolation was also estimated, showing that the effectiveness was dependent on the speed, i.e. the time from onset of illness to hospitalization.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1098\/rsif.2020.0498","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2020,8,19]],"date-time":"2020-08-19T07:05:26Z","timestamp":1597820726000},"page":"20200498","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1098\/crossmark-policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":8,"title":["Estimating the protective effect of case isolation with transmission tree reconstruction during the Ebola outbreak in Nigeria, 2014"],"prefix":"10.1098","volume":"17","author":[{"given":"Yat Hin","family":"Chan","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-0941-8537","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Hiroshi","family":"Nishiura","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"175","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2020,8,19]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_3_6_2_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"571","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(77)92001-3","article-title":"Viral haemorrhagic fever in southern Sudan and northern Zaire. Preliminary studies on the aetiological agent","volume":"309","author":"Bowen ET","year":"1977","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_3_2","first-page":"569","article-title":"Isolation and partial characterisation of a new virus causing acute haemorrhagic fever in Zaire","volume":"1","author":"Pattyn S","year":"1977","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_4_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"573","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(77)92002-5","article-title":"Isolation of Marburg-like virus from a case of haemorrhagic fever in Zaire","volume":"309","author":"Pattyn SW","year":"1977","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_5_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJMoa1411100"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_6_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3130","DOI":"10.3934\/mbe.2019155","article-title":"Exploring the human-animal interface of Ebola virus disease outbreaks","volume":"16","author":"Ponce L","year":"2019","journal-title":"Math. Biosci. Eng."},{"key":"e_1_3_6_7_2","unstructured":"Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. 2019 2014\u20132016 Ebola outbreak in West Africa . See https:\/\/www.cdc.gov\/vhf\/ebola\/history\/2014-2016-outbreak\/index.html."},{"key":"e_1_3_6_8_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(15)61117-5"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_9_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(16)32621-6"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_10_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"105","DOI":"10.3201\/eid2201.151410","article-title":"Effectiveness of ring vaccination as control strategy for Ebola virus disease","volume":"22","author":"Kucharski AJ","year":"2016","journal-title":"Emerg. Infect. Dis."},{"key":"e_1_3_6_11_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1260612"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_12_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"15818","DOI":"10.1038\/srep15818","article-title":"Modeling the effect of comprehensive interventions on Ebola virus transmission","volume":"5","author":"Shen M","year":"2015","journal-title":"Sci. Rep."},{"key":"e_1_3_6_13_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pbio.1002056"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_14_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"148","DOI":"10.1016\/S1473-3099(14)71084-9","article-title":"Modelling the effect of early detection of Ebola","volume":"15","author":"Chowell D","year":"2015","journal-title":"Lancet Infect. Dis."},{"key":"e_1_3_6_15_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1518587113"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_16_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"14366","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1508814112","article-title":"Measuring the impact of Ebola control measures in Sierra Leone","volume":"112","author":"Kucharski AJ","year":"2015","journal-title":"Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_17_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e0004498","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0004498","article-title":"Successful control of Ebola virus disease: analysis of service based data from rural Sierra Leone","volume":"10","author":"Lokuge K","year":"2016","journal-title":"PLoS Negl. Trop. Dis."},{"key":"e_1_3_6_18_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3201\/eid2103.141892"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_19_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S1473-3099(14)71074-6"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_20_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.7326\/M14-2255"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_21_2","article-title":"Modeling the impact of interventions on an epidemic of Ebola in Sierra Leone and Liberia","volume":"6","author":"Rivers CM","year":"2014","journal-title":"PLoS Curr."},{"key":"e_1_3_6_22_2","article-title":"A model of the 2014 Ebola epidemic in West Africa with contact tracing","volume":"7","author":"Webb G","year":"2015","journal-title":"PLoS Curr."},{"key":"e_1_3_6_23_2","article-title":"Temporal changes in Ebola transmission in Sierra Leone and implications for control requirements: a real-time modelling study","volume":"7","author":"Camacho A","year":"2015","journal-title":"PLoS Curr."},{"key":"e_1_3_6_24_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S1473-3099(14)70995-8"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_25_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"S102","DOI":"10.1093\/infdis\/jiw190","article-title":"Ebola virus epidemiology and evolution in Nigeria","volume":"214","author":"Folarin OA","year":"2016","journal-title":"J. Infect. Dis."},{"key":"e_1_3_6_26_2","first-page":"867","article-title":"Ebola virus disease outbreak\u2014Nigeria, July\u2013September 2014","volume":"63","author":"Shuaib F","year":"2014","journal-title":"MMWR Morb. Mortal. Wkly Rep."},{"key":"e_1_3_6_27_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/aje\/kwg103"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_28_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"13","DOI":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2016.11.005","article-title":"Modelling and Bayesian analysis of the Abakaliki smallpox data","volume":"19","author":"Stockdale JE","year":"2017","journal-title":"Epidemics"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_29_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0000758"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_30_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.plrev.2007.12.001"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_31_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/aje\/kwh255"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_32_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/aje\/kws006"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_33_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1519235113"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_34_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/jech.2005.042424"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_35_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1201\/b16018"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_36_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"833","DOI":"10.1093\/bioinformatics\/btm607","article-title":"Bayesian ranking of biochemical system models","volume":"24","author":"Vyshemirsky V","year":"2007","journal-title":"Bioinformatics"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_37_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/978-0-387-68636-3"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_38_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/s12916-014-0196-0"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_39_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/1742-4682-12-1"}],"container-title":["Journal of The Royal Society Interface"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/royalsocietypublishing.org\/doi\/pdf\/10.1098\/rsif.2020.0498","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/royalsocietypublishing.org\/doi\/full-xml\/10.1098\/rsif.2020.0498","content-type":"application\/xml","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/royalsocietypublishing.org\/doi\/pdf\/10.1098\/rsif.2020.0498","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2021,2,19]],"date-time":"2021-02-19T17:40:00Z","timestamp":1613756400000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/royalsocietypublishing.org\/doi\/10.1098\/rsif.2020.0498"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2020,8]]},"references-count":38,"journal-issue":{"issue":"169","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2020,8]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1098\/rsif.2020.0498"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1098\/rsif.2020.0498","relation":{},"ISSN":["1742-5689","1742-5662"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1742-5689","type":"print"},{"value":"1742-5662","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2020,8]]},"assertion":[{"value":"2020-06-24","order":0,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2020-07-29","order":1,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2020-08-19","order":2,"name":"published","label":"Published","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}}]}}