{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2025,7,30]],"date-time":"2025-07-30T12:14:19Z","timestamp":1753877659927,"version":"3.41.2"},"reference-count":59,"publisher":"The Royal Society","issue":"190","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2022,5,1]],"date-time":"2022-05-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1651363200000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/royalsociety.org\/journals\/ethics-policies\/data-sharing-mining\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["royalsocietypublishing.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["J. R. Soc. Interface."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2022,5]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>Deciphering the properties of vaccines against an emerging pathogen is essential for optimizing immunization strategies. Early after vaccine roll-out, however, uncertainties about vaccine immunity raise the question of how much time is needed to estimate these properties, particularly the durability of vaccine protection. Here we designed a simulation study, based on a generic transmission model of vaccination, to simulate the impact of a breadth of vaccines with different mean (range: 10 months\u20132 years) and variability (coefficient of variation range: 50\u2013100%) of the duration of protection. Focusing on the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2\u2006in the year after start of mass immunization in Germany as a case study, we then assessed how confidently the duration of protection could be estimated under a range of epidemiological scenarios. We found that lower mean and higher heterogeneity facilitated estimation of the duration of vaccine protection. Across the vaccines tested, rapid waning and high heterogeneity permitted complete identification of the duration of protection; by contrast, slow waning and low heterogeneity allowed only estimation of the fraction of vaccinees with rapid loss of immunity. These findings suggest that limited epidemiological data can inform the duration of vaccine immunity. More generally, they highlight the need to carefully consider immunological heterogeneity when designing transmission models to evaluate vaccines.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1098\/rsif.2022.0070","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2022,5,25]],"date-time":"2022-05-25T07:53:07Z","timestamp":1653465187000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1098\/crossmark-policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":2,"title":["Immunological heterogeneity informs estimation of the durability of vaccine protection"],"prefix":"10.1098","volume":"19","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-9302-4858","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Matthieu","family":"Domenech de Cell\u00e8s","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Infectious Disease Epidemiology group, Max Planck Institute for Infection Biology, 10117 Berlin, Germany"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5421-8692","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Anabelle","family":"Wong","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Infectious Disease Epidemiology group, Max Planck Institute for Infection Biology, 10117 Berlin, Germany"},{"name":"Institute of Public Health, Charit\u00e9\u2014Universit\u00e4tsmedizin Berlin, 10117 Berlin, Germany"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-4607-2101","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Laura","family":"Andrea Barrero Guevara","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Infectious Disease Epidemiology group, Max Planck Institute for Infection Biology, 10117 Berlin, Germany"},{"name":"Institute of Public Health, Charit\u00e9\u2014Universit\u00e4tsmedizin Berlin, 10117 Berlin, Germany"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-7221-3801","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Pejman","family":"Rohani","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Odum School of Ecology, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602, USA"},{"name":"Department of Infectious Diseases, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602, USA"},{"name":"Center for Influenza Disease &amp; Emergence Research (CIDER), University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602, USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"175","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2022,5,25]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_3_6_2_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1515\/9781400841035"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_3_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/978-0-387-68636-3"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_4_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1137\/140956695"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_5_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.ppat.1003849"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_6_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/s12879-017-2716-y"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_7_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/1475-2875-9-82"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_8_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pbio.2006601"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_9_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41577-020-00479-7"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_10_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.abm0829"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_11_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/cid\/ciaa518"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_12_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/ije\/13.1.87"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_13_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1001\/jamapediatrics.2019.0711"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_14_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1586\/erv.12.109"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_15_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/21645515.2018.1549432"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_16_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/s12916-017-0985-3"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_17_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1097\/EDE.0b013e31825902ab"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_18_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1220908110"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_19_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/s12916-016-0642-2"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_20_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/scitranslmed.aaj1748"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_21_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/scitranslmed.aao5945"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_22_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.abg3055"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_23_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41591-020-0962-9"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_24_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.abb3221"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_25_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pmed.0050074"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_26_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1194134"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_27_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2807\/1560-7917.ES.2021.26.24.2100509"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_28_2","unstructured":"Abbott S Bennett C Hickson J Allen J Sherratt K Funk S. 2020 National and subnational estimates of the Covid 19 reproduction number (R) for Germany based on test results. 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