{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,26]],"date-time":"2026-09-26T03:37:35Z","timestamp":1790393855516,"version":"4.1.0"},"reference-count":68,"publisher":"The Royal Society","issue":"216","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2024,7,1]],"date-time":"2024-07-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1719792000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2024,7,1]],"date-time":"2024-07-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1719792000000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001509","name":"Royal Society Te Ap\u0101rangi","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001509","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["royalsocietypublishing.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["J. R. Soc. Interface."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2024,7]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>\n            Lassa fever is a West African rodent-borne viral haemorrhagic fever that kills thousands of people a year, with 100\u2009000 to 300\u2009000 people a year probably infected by Lassa virus (LASV). The main reservoir of LASV is the Natal multimammate mouse,\n            <jats:italic>Mastomys natalensis<\/jats:italic>\n            . There is reported asynchrony between peak infection in the rodent population and peak Lassa fever risk among people, probably owing to differing seasonal contact rates. Here, we developed a susceptible-infected-recovered (\n            <jats:inline-formula>\n              <mml:math xmlns:mml=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1998\/Math\/MathML\" display=\"inline\" overflow=\"scroll\">\n                <mml:mrow>\n                  <mml:mi>S<\/mml:mi>\n                  <mml:mi>I<\/mml:mi>\n                  <mml:mi>R<\/mml:mi>\n                <\/mml:mrow>\n              <\/mml:math>\n            <\/jats:inline-formula>\n            )-based model of LASV dynamics in its rodent host,\n            <jats:italic>M. natalensis<\/jats:italic>\n            , with a persistently infected class and seasonal birthing to test the impact of changes to seasonal birthing in the future owing to climate and land use change. Our simulations suggest shifting rodent birthing timing and synchrony will alter the peak of viral prevalence, changing risk to people, with viral dynamics mainly stable in adults and varying in the young, but with more infected individuals. We calculate the time-average basic reproductive number,\n            <jats:inline-formula>\n              <mml:math xmlns:mml=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1998\/Math\/MathML\" display=\"inline\" overflow=\"scroll\">\n                <mml:mstyle displaystyle=\"true\" scriptlevel=\"0\">\n                  <mml:mrow>\n                    <mml:msub>\n                      <mml:mrow>\n                        <mml:mrow>\n                          <mml:mover>\n                            <mml:mi class=\"mathcal\" mathvariant=\"script\">R<\/mml:mi>\n                            <mml:mo class=\"mathcal\" mathvariant=\"script\">~<\/mml:mo>\n                          <\/mml:mover>\n                        <\/mml:mrow>\n                      <\/mml:mrow>\n                      <mml:mrow>\n                        <mml:mi>p<\/mml:mi>\n                      <\/mml:mrow>\n                    <\/mml:msub>\n                  <\/mml:mrow>\n                <\/mml:mstyle>\n              <\/mml:math>\n            <\/jats:inline-formula>\n            , for this infectious disease system with periodic changes to population sizes owing to birthing using a time-average method and with a sensitivity analysis show four key parameters: carrying capacity, adult mortality, the transmission parameter among adults and additional disease-induced mortality impact the maintenance of LASV in\n            <jats:italic>M. natalensis<\/jats:italic>\n            most, with carrying capacity and adult mortality potentially changeable owing to human activities and interventions.\n          <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1098\/rsif.2024.0106","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2024,7,24]],"date-time":"2024-07-24T08:44:54Z","timestamp":1721810694000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1098\/crossmark-policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":11,"title":["Modelling Lassa virus dynamics in West African\n            <i>Mastomys natalensis<\/i>\n            and the impact of human activities"],"prefix":"10.1098","volume":"21","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5024-3700","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Reju Sam","family":"John","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Massey University, Private Bag, 11 222 , Palmerston North 4442, New Zealand"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-6036-2957","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Hammed Olawale","family":"Fatoyinbo","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Massey University, Private Bag, 11 222 , Palmerston North 4442, New Zealand"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-0087-3015","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"David T. S.","family":"Hayman","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Massey University, Private Bag, 11 222 , Palmerston North 4442, New Zealand"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"175","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2024,7,24]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_3_9_2_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0008589"},{"key":"e_1_3_9_3_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/s12879-021-05837-x"},{"key":"e_1_3_9_4_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/22221751.2023.2290834"},{"key":"e_1_3_9_5_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1089\/vbz.2006.0520"},{"key":"e_1_3_9_6_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1089\/15303660160025912"},{"key":"e_1_3_9_7_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.4269\/ajtmh.1996.55.661"},{"key":"e_1_3_9_8_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.aau9343"},{"key":"e_1_3_9_9_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJMoa1804498"},{"key":"e_1_3_9_10_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0003398"},{"key":"e_1_3_9_11_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(23)00048-X"},{"key":"e_1_3_9_12_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3201\/eid2204.150155"},{"key":"e_1_3_9_13_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.ppat.1006073"},{"key":"e_1_3_9_14_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rstb.2018.0268"},{"key":"e_1_3_9_15_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1089\/vbz.2007.0118"},{"key":"e_1_3_9_16_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1128\/spectrum.00366-22"},{"key":"e_1_3_9_17_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0011543"},{"key":"e_1_3_9_18_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/22221751.2024.2341141"},{"key":"e_1_3_9_19_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3201\/eid2010.140696"},{"key":"e_1_3_9_20_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/2041-210X.12549"},{"key":"e_1_3_9_21_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41467-022-33112-3"},{"key":"e_1_3_9_22_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.heliyon.2021.e07760"},{"key":"e_1_3_9_23_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.nonrwa.2021.103310"},{"key":"e_1_3_9_24_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/22221751.2019.1605846"},{"key":"e_1_3_9_25_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1749-4877.2007.00063.x"},{"key":"e_1_3_9_26_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1071\/WR11028"},{"key":"e_1_3_9_27_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/ps.3346"},{"key":"e_1_3_9_28_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10144-013-0393-2"},{"key":"e_1_3_9_29_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/23311932.2018.1507509"},{"key":"e_1_3_9_30_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1515\/MAMM.2008.007"},{"key":"e_1_3_9_31_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rsif.2018.0403"},{"key":"e_1_3_9_32_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1088\/1748-9326\/ab7fde"},{"key":"e_1_3_9_33_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/1365-2656.13107"},{"key":"e_1_3_9_34_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/s42787-022-00138-x"},{"key":"e_1_3_9_35_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/s13071-018-2674-2"},{"key":"e_1_3_9_36_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0007920"},{"key":"e_1_3_9_37_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1890\/08-1494.1"},{"key":"e_1_3_9_38_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/pnasnexus\/pgac114"},{"key":"e_1_3_9_39_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/22221751.2021.2008773"},{"key":"e_1_3_9_40_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1089\/vbz.2013.1484"},{"key":"e_1_3_9_41_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/srep10445"},{"key":"e_1_3_9_42_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1089\/vbz.2010.0010"},{"key":"e_1_3_9_43_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/s13071-017-2146-0"},{"key":"e_1_3_9_44_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rsif.2021.0638"},{"key":"e_1_3_9_45_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/B978-008045405-4.00468-7"},{"key":"e_1_3_9_46_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/jzs.12569"},{"key":"e_1_3_9_47_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41597-023-02700-3"},{"key":"e_1_3_9_48_2","unstructured":"Rohatgi A . 2024 WebPlotDigitizer. 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