{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,9]],"date-time":"2026-10-09T06:33:53Z","timestamp":1791527633706,"version":"4.3.4"},"reference-count":38,"publisher":"The Royal Society","issue":"220","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2024,11,1]],"date-time":"2024-11-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1730419200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/royalsociety.org\/-\/media\/journals\/author\/Licence-to-Publish-20062019-final.pdf"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2024,11,1]],"date-time":"2024-11-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1730419200000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/royalsociety.org\/journals\/ethics-policies\/data-sharing-mining\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100000923","name":"Australian Research Council","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100000923","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"name":"Collaborative Research Grant"},{"name":"the Hong Kong Research Grants Council Theme-based Research Scheme fund"},{"name":"the National Science Foundation of China"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["royalsocietypublishing.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["J. R. Soc. Interface."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2024,11]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>\n            Previous work has failed to fit classic SEIR epidemic models satisfactorily to the prevalence data of the famous English boarding school 1978 influenza A\/H1N1 outbreak during the children\u2019s pandemic. It is still an open question whether a biologically plausible model can fit the prevalence time series and the attack rate correctly. To construct the final model, we first used an intentionally very flexible and overfitted discrete-time epidemiologic model to learn the epidemiological features from the data. The final model was a susceptible (\n            <jats:italic>S<\/jats:italic>\n            ) \u2013 exposed (\n            <jats:italic>E<\/jats:italic>\n            ) \u2013 infectious (\n            <jats:italic>I<\/jats:italic>\n            ) \u2013 confined-to-bed (\n            <jats:italic>B<\/jats:italic>\n            ) \u2013 convalescent (\n            <jats:italic>C<\/jats:italic>\n            ) \u2013 recovered (\n            <jats:italic>R<\/jats:italic>\n            ) model with time delay (constant residence time) in\n            <jats:italic>E<\/jats:italic>\n            and\n            <jats:italic>I<\/jats:italic>\n            compartments and multi-stage (Erlang-distributed residence time) in\n            <jats:italic>B<\/jats:italic>\n            and\n            <jats:italic>C<\/jats:italic>\n            compartments. We simultaneously fitted the reported\n            <jats:italic>B<\/jats:italic>\n            and\n            <jats:italic>C<\/jats:italic>\n            prevalence curves as well as the attack rate (proportion of children infected during the outbreak). The non-exponential residence times were crucial for good fits. The estimates of the generation time and the basic reproductive number (\n            <jats:inline-formula>\n              <mml:math xmlns:mml=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1998\/Math\/MathML\" display=\"inline\" overflow=\"scroll\">\n                <mml:mstyle displaystyle=\"true\" scriptlevel=\"0\">\n                  <mml:mrow>\n                    <mml:msub>\n                      <mml:mrow>\n                        <mml:mi class=\"mathcal\" mathvariant=\"script\">R<\/mml:mi>\n                      <\/mml:mrow>\n                      <mml:mrow>\n                        <mml:mn>0<\/mml:mn>\n                      <\/mml:mrow>\n                    <\/mml:msub>\n                  <\/mml:mrow>\n                <\/mml:mstyle>\n              <\/mml:math>\n            <\/jats:inline-formula>\n            ) were biologically reasonable. A simplified discrete-time model was built and fitted using the Bayesian procedure. Our work not only provided an answer to the open question, but also demonstrated an approach to constructive model generation.\n          <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1098\/rsif.2024.0394","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2024,11,20]],"date-time":"2024-11-20T08:05:24Z","timestamp":1732089924000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1098\/crossmark-policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":6,"title":["The 1978 English boarding school influenza outbreak: where the classic SEIR model fails"],"prefix":"10.1098","volume":"21","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-1711-5659","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Konstantin K.","family":"Avilov","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Applied Mathematics, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong SAR, People\u2019s Republic of China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-6199-9039","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Qiong","family":"Li","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Interdisciplinary Research and Application for Data Science, BNU-HKBU United International College, Zhuhai, People\u2019s Republic of China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-8339-5965","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Lixin","family":"Lin","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Mathematical Sciences, School of Science, Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology (RMIT) University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8565-4710","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Haydar","family":"Demirhan","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Mathematical Sciences, School of Science, Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology (RMIT) University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Lewi","family":"Stone","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Mathematical Sciences, School of Science, Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology (RMIT) University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia"},{"name":"Biomathematics Unit, Faculty of Life Sciences, Tel Aviv University, Ramat Aviv, Israel"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3253-654X","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Daihai","family":"He","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Applied Mathematics, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong SAR, People\u2019s Republic of China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"175","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2024,11,20]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_3_8_2_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.0611071104"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_3_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rspb.2013.1345"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_4_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rspb.2011.0300"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_5_2","first-page":"264","article-title":"Transmission potential of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) onboard the Diamond Princess cruises ship, 2020","volume":"5","author":"Mizumoto K","year":"2020","unstructured":"Mizumoto K, Chowell G. 2020 Transmission potential of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) onboard the Diamond Princess cruises ship, 2020. Infect. Dis. Model. 5, 264\u2013270. (doi:10.1016\/j.idm.2020.02.003)","journal-title":"Infect. Dis. Model."},{"key":"e_1_3_8_6_2","first-page":"587","article-title":"Influenza in a boarding school","volume":"1","author":"Anonymous","year":"1978","unstructured":"Anonymous. 1978 Influenza in a boarding school. Br. Med. J. 1, 587.","journal-title":"Br. Med. J."},{"key":"e_1_3_8_7_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3390\/v11020122"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_8_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0163-4453(82)91743-1"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_9_2","article-title":"A course in mathematical biology: quantitative modeling with mathematical and computational methods","author":"Vries G","year":"2006","unstructured":"Vries G, Hillen T, Lewis M, M\u00fcller J, Sch\u00f6nfisch B. 2006 A course in mathematical biology: quantitative modeling with mathematical and computational methods. SIAM (doi:10.1137\/1.9780898718256)","journal-title":"SIAM"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_10_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.9164"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_11_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/978-1-4899-7612-3"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_12_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.30707\/LiB6.2Raissi"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_13_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/j.ctvcm4gk0"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_14_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/tbed.14732"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_15_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1128\/mBio.01013-15"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_16_2","volume-title":"2023 Canadian Mathematical Society Summer Meeting","author":"Li MY","year":"2023","unstructured":"Li MY. 2023 An epidemic enigma: challenges in modeling the influenza epidemic in a boarding school. In 2023 Canadian Mathematical Society Summer Meeting. Ottawa, Canada."},{"key":"e_1_3_8_17_2","first-page":"72","article-title":"Revisiting classical SIR modelling in light of the COVID-19 pandemic","volume":"8","author":"Kalachev L","year":"2023","unstructured":"Kalachev L, Landguth EL, Graham J. 2023 Revisiting classical SIR modelling in light of the COVID-19 pandemic. Infect. Dis. Model. 8, 72\u201383. (doi:10.1016\/j.idm.2022.12.002)","journal-title":"Infect. Dis. Model."},{"key":"e_1_3_8_18_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/515018a"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_19_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/bmj.m1632"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_20_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/BF00178324"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_21_2","unstructured":"Jombart T Frost S Nouvellet P Campbell F Sudre B Park SW Pulliam JRC Schumacher J Brown E. 2020 Outbreaks: a collection of disease outbreak data version 1.9.0. See https:\/\/CRAN.R-project.org\/package=outbreaks."},{"key":"e_1_3_8_22_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-022-08233-w"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_23_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1099\/vir.0.033076-0"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_24_2","unstructured":"Guo J Gabry J Goodrich B Weber S. 2020 R package \u2018rstan.\u2019 (doi:10.32614\/CRAN.package.rstan)"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_25_2","unstructured":"Stan Development Team.2024. Stan modeling language users guide and reference manual version 2.35. See https:\/\/mc-stan.org."},{"key":"e_1_3_8_26_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/1471-2334-14-480"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_27_2","article-title":"Validating Bayesian inference algorithms with simulation-based calibration","author":"Talts S","year":"2018","unstructured":"Talts S, Betancourt M, Simpson D, Vehtari A, Gelman A. 2018 Validating Bayesian inference algorithms with simulation-based calibration. arXiv. (doi:10.48550\/arXiv.1804.06788)","journal-title":"arXiv."},{"key":"e_1_3_8_28_2","volume-title":"Package \u2018Epiestim","author":"Cori A","year":"2020","unstructured":"Cori A et al. 2020 Package \u2018Epiestim. Vienna, Austria: CRAN."},{"key":"e_1_3_8_29_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2019.100356"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_30_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1097\/INF.0000000000001083"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_31_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jcv.2009.01.010"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_32_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rsif.2013.0098"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_33_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1097\/EDE.0b013e31819d1092"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_34_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/aje\/kwm375"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_35_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s40615-021-01148-8"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_36_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S1473-3099(20)30120-1"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_37_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S1473-3099(22)00434-0"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_38_2","article-title":"Materials for paper Avilov et al. \"The 1978 English boarding school influenza outbreak: where the classic SEIR model fails\" in JRS Interface","author":"Avilov KK","year":"2024","unstructured":"Avilov KK, Li Q, Lin L, Demirhan H, Stone L, He D. 2024 Materials for paper Avilov et al. \"The 1978 English boarding school influenza outbreak: where the classic SEIR model fails\" in JRS Interface. Zenodo. (doi:10.5281\/zenodo.13753468)","journal-title":"Zenodo."},{"key":"e_1_3_8_39_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Avilov KK Li Q Lin L Demirhan H Stone L He D. 2024 Supplementary material from: The 1978 English boarding school influenza outbreak: where the classic SEIR model fails. Figshare. (doi:10.6084\/m9.figshare.c.7525001)","DOI":"10.2139\/ssrn.4586177"}],"container-title":["Journal of The Royal Society Interface"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/royalsocietypublishing.org\/doi\/pdf\/10.1098\/rsif.2024.0394","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/royalsocietypublishing.org\/doi\/full-xml\/10.1098\/rsif.2024.0394","content-type":"application\/xml","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/royalsocietypublishing.org\/doi\/pdf\/10.1098\/rsif.2024.0394","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2024,11,20]],"date-time":"2024-11-20T08:05:40Z","timestamp":1732089940000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/royalsocietypublishing.org\/doi\/10.1098\/rsif.2024.0394"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2024,11]]},"references-count":38,"journal-issue":{"issue":"220","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2024,11]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1098\/rsif.2024.0394"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1098\/rsif.2024.0394","relation":{},"ISSN":["1742-5689","1742-5662"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1742-5689","type":"print"},{"value":"1742-5662","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2024,11]]},"assertion":[{"value":"2023-11-20","order":0,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2024-08-05","order":1,"name":"revised","label":"Revised","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2024-09-17","order":2,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2024-11-20","order":3,"name":"published","label":"Published","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}}],"article-number":"20240394"}}