{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,23]],"date-time":"2026-04-23T07:30:06Z","timestamp":1776929406047,"version":"3.51.2"},"reference-count":46,"publisher":"The Royal Society","issue":"235","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,25]],"date-time":"2026-02-25T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1771977600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,25]],"date-time":"2026-02-25T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1771977600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100000925","name":"National Health and Medical Research Council","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100000925","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100003921","name":"Department of Health and Aged Care, Australian Government","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100003921","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,25]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>We developed a flexible infectious disease model framework that combines a detailed individual-based model of arrival pathways (quarantine model) and an individual-based model of the arrivals environment (community model) to inform border risk assessments. The work was motivated by Australia\u2019s desire to safely increase international arrival volumes, which had been heavily constrained since early 2020 as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. These analyses supported decisions on quarantine and border policy in the context of the Australian government\u2019s national reopening plan in late 2021. The quarantine model provides a detailed representation of transmission within quarantine and time-varying infectiousness and test sensitivity within individuals, to characterize the likelihood and infectiousness of breaches from quarantine. The community model subsequently captures the impact on these infectious individuals in the presence of varying vaccination coverage, arrival volumes, public health and social measures (PHSMs) and test-trace-isolate-quarantine system effectiveness in the Australian context. Our results showed that high vaccination coverage would be required to safely reopen with support from ongoing PHSMs, and quarantine pathways have minimal impact on infection dynamics in the presence of existing local transmission. The modelling pipeline we present can be flexibly adapted to a range of scenarios, and thus provides a useful framework for generating timely risk assessments in the event of future pandemics.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1098\/rsif.2025.0144","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,27]],"date-time":"2026-02-27T21:55:31Z","timestamp":1772229331000},"source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":1,"title":["Border quarantine, vaccination and public health measures to mitigate the impact of COVID-19 importations in Australia: a modelling study"],"prefix":"10.1098","volume":"23","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-6515-827X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Michael","family":"Lydeamore","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Monash University 1 , , ,","place":["Clayton, Victoria, Australia"],"department":["Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics"]}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-0578-4049","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Cameron","family":"Zachreson","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"The University of Melbourne 2 , , ,","place":["Melbourne, Victoria, Australia"],"department":["School of Computing and Information Systems"]}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Eamon","family":"Conway","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Walter and Eliza Hall Institute of Medical Research 3 , , ,","place":["Melbourne, Victoria, Australia"]}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-9600-3473","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Freya M.","family":"Shearer","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"The University of Melbourne 4 , , ,","place":["Melbourne, Victoria, Australia"],"department":["Melbourne School of Population and Global Health"]}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Christopher M.","family":"Baker","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"The University of Melbourne 5 , , ,","place":["Melbourne, Victoria, Australia"],"department":["School of Mathematics and Statistics"]},{"name":"The University of Melbourne 6 , , ,","place":["Melbourne, Victoria, Australia"],"department":["Melbourne Centre for Data Science"]},{"name":"The University of Melbourne 7 , , ,","place":["Melbourne, Victoria, Australia"],"department":["Centre of Excellence for Biosecurity Risk Analysis"]}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Joshua V.","family":"Ross","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"The University of Adelaide 8 , , ,","place":["Adelaide, South Australia, Australia"]}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Joel","family":"Miller","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"La Trobe University 9 , ,","place":["Melbourne, Australia"]}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-2452-3098","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"James M.","family":"McCaw","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"The University of Melbourne 4 , , ,","place":["Melbourne, Victoria, Australia"],"department":["Melbourne School of Population and Global Health"]},{"name":"The University of Melbourne 5 , , ,","place":["Melbourne, Victoria, Australia"],"department":["School of Mathematics and Statistics"]}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-0069-2281","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Nicholas L.","family":"Geard","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"The University of Melbourne 2 , , ,","place":["Melbourne, Victoria, Australia"],"department":["School of Computing and Information Systems"]}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Jodie","family":"McVernon","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"The University of Melbourne 10 , , ,","place":["Melbourne, Victoria, Australia"],"department":["Department of Infectious Diseases"]},{"name":"Victorian Infectious Diseases Reference Laboratory 11 , , ,","place":["North Melbourne, Victoria, Australia"],"department":["Epidemiology Unit"]}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-0076-3123","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"David J.","family":"Price","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"The University of Melbourne 4 , , ,","place":["Melbourne, Victoria, Australia"],"department":["Melbourne School of Population and Global Health"]},{"name":"The University of Melbourne 10 , , ,","place":["Melbourne, Victoria, Australia"],"department":["Department of Infectious Diseases"]}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"175","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,25]]},"reference":[{"key":"2026031004092168000_R1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"413","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jinf.2021.07.017","article-title":"Public health effects of travel-related policies on the COVID-19 pandemic: a mixed-methods systematic review","volume":"83","author":"Bou-Karroum","year":"2021","journal-title":"J. Infect."},{"key":"2026031004092168000_R2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"710","DOI":"10.1080\/10255842.2020.1759560","article-title":"Outbreak dynamics of COVID-19 in Europe and the effect of travel restrictions","volume":"23","author":"Linka","year":"2020","journal-title":"Comput. Methods Biomech. Biomed. Engin."},{"key":"2026031004092168000_R3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1093\/jtm\/taaa081","article-title":"The effectiveness of full and partial travel bans against COVID-19 spread in Australia for travellers from China during and after the epidemic peak in China","volume":"27","author":"Costantino","year":"2020","journal-title":"J. Travel Med."},{"key":"2026031004092168000_R4","unstructured":"Halton\n              J\n            \n          . 2020National review of quarantine. National Cabinet, Government of Australia. Seehttps:\/\/www.health.gov.au\/resources\/publications\/national-review-of-hotel-quarantine."},{"key":"2026031004092168000_R5","unstructured":"Halton\n              J\n            , HeadG, CollignonP. 2021National review of quarantine. Department of Prime Minister & Cabinet, Government of Australia. Seehttps:\/\/www.pmc.gov.au\/publications\/national-review-quarantine."},{"key":"2026031004092168000_R6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"100297","DOI":"10.1016\/j.lanwpc.2021.100297","article-title":"Population-based analysis of the epidemiological features of COVID-19 epidemics in Victoria, Australia, January 2020 \u2013 March 2021, and their suppression through comprehensive control strategies","volume":"17","author":"Sullivan","year":"2021","journal-title":"Lancet Regional Health - Western Pacific"},{"key":"2026031004092168000_R7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1126\/sciadv.abm3624","article-title":"COVID-19 in low-tolerance border quarantine systems: impact of the delta variant of SARS-CoV-2","volume":"8","author":"Zachreson","year":"2022","journal-title":"Sci. Adv."},{"key":"2026031004092168000_R8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3292","DOI":"10.1016\/j.vaccine.2023.03.069","article-title":"Vaccine effectiveness against transmission of alpha, delta and omicron SARS-COV-2-infection, Belgian contact tracing, 2021-2022","volume":"41","author":"Braeye","year":"2023","journal-title":"Vaccine (Auckl)."},{"key":"2026031004092168000_R9","unstructured":"Commonwealth Government of Australia\n          . 2021National plan to transition Australia\u2019s National COVID-19 Response. Seehttps:\/\/www.australia.gov.au\/national-plan."},{"key":"2026031004092168000_R10","article-title":"COVID-19 vaccine coverage targets to inform reopening plans in a low incidence setting","volume":"290","author":"Conway","year":"2023","journal-title":"Proc. R. Soc. B Biol. Sci."},{"key":"2026031004092168000_R11","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2844","DOI":"10.3201\/eid2612.202530","article-title":"Coronavirus disease model to inform transmission-reducing measures and health system preparedness, Australia","volume":"26","author":"Moss","year":"2020","journal-title":"Emerging Infect. Dis."},{"key":"2026031004092168000_R12","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1205","DOI":"10.1038\/s41591-020-0962-9","article-title":"Age-dependent effects in the transmission and control of COVID-19 epidemics","volume":"26","author":"Davies","year":"2020","journal-title":"Nat. Med."},{"key":"2026031004092168000_R13","first-page":"100573","article-title":"Learnings from the Australian first few X household transmission project for COVID-19","volume":"28","author":"Marcato","year":"2022","journal-title":"Lancet Reg. Health. West. Pac."},{"key":"2026031004092168000_R14","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1017\/CBO9780511810633","volume-title":"Markov chains","author":"Norris","year":"1997"},{"key":"2026031004092168000_R15","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1459","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(21)00675-9","article-title":"SARS-CoV-2 infection rates of antibody-positive compared with antibody-negative health-care workers in England: a large, multicentre, prospective cohort study (SIREN)","volume":"397","author":"Hall","year":"2021","journal-title":"The Lancet"},{"key":"2026031004092168000_R16","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"348","DOI":"10.1038\/s41591-023-02219-5","article-title":"Real-world COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness against the Omicron BA.2 variant in a SARS-CoV-2 infection-naive population","volume":"29","author":"Lau","year":"2023","journal-title":"Nat. Med."},{"key":"2026031004092168000_R17","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2024.100763","article-title":"Estimating measures to reduce the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Australia to guide a \u2018national plan\u2019 to reopening","volume":"47","author":"Ryan","year":"2024","journal-title":"Epidemics"},{"key":"2026031004092168000_R18","article-title":"Estimating the impact of test-trace-isolate-quarantine systems on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Australia","author":"Shearer","year":"2023","journal-title":"medRxiv"},{"key":"2026031004092168000_R19","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2022.100549","article-title":"Rapid assessment of the risk of SARS-CoV-2 importation: case study and lessons learned","volume":"38","author":"Shearer","year":"2022","journal-title":"Epidemics"},{"key":"2026031004092168000_R20","unstructured":"Australian Government\n          . National plan to transition Australia\u2019s National COVID-19 Response. Seehttps:\/\/www.pmc.gov.au\/national-plan-transition-australias-national-covid-response (accessed2-July-2021)."},{"key":"2026031004092168000_R21","unstructured":"Chief medical officer statement\n          . Seehttps:\/\/www.health.gov.au\/news\/recommencing-quarantine-free-travel-from-new-zealand-to-australia (accessed30-October-2021)."},{"key":"2026031004092168000_R22","unstructured":"Fighting the delta outbreak with new restrictions for local government areas (lLGAs) of concern. Seehttps:\/\/www.health.nsw.gov.au\/news\/Pages\/20210730_01.aspx (accessed30-July-2021)."},{"key":"2026031004092168000_R23","unstructured":"Stay-at-home orders - Western NSW\n          . Seehttps:\/\/www.health.nsw.gov.au\/news\/Pages\/20210811_02.aspx (accessed11-August-2021)."},{"key":"2026031004092168000_R24","unstructured":"COVID-19 vaccine rollout update\n          . Seehttps:\/\/www.health.gov.au\/resources\/publications\/covid-19-vaccine-rollout-update-17-october-2021 (accessed17-October-2021)."},{"key":"2026031004092168000_R25","unstructured":"NSW flying towards 80 per cent double dose target\n          . 2021Seehttps:\/\/www.health.nsw.gov.au\/news\/Pages\/20211015_01.aspx (accessed15-October-2021)."},{"key":"2026031004092168000_R26","unstructured":"Western Australia COVID-19 vaccine roll-out\n          . 2021Seehttps:\/\/audit.wa.gov.au\/reports-and-publications\/reports\/was-covid-19-vaccine-roll-out\/."},{"key":"2026031004092168000_R27","unstructured":"Western Australia safe transition plan\n          . 2021Seehttps:\/\/www.wa.gov.au\/government\/announcements\/wa-proceed-safe-transition-plan-february-5-2022."},{"key":"2026031004092168000_R28","unstructured":"Western Australia updated safe transition plan\n          . 2022Seehttps:\/\/www.wa.gov.au\/government\/announcements\/was-updated-safe-transition-plan-5-february-2022."},{"key":"2026031004092168000_R29","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1093\/jtm\/taab088","article-title":"Determining quarantine length and testing frequency for international border opening during the COVID-19 pandemic","volume":"28","author":"Dickens","year":"2021","journal-title":"J. Travel Med."},{"key":"2026031004092168000_R30","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1098\/rsif.2021.0063","article-title":"Managing the risk of a COVID-19 outbreak from border arrivals","volume":"18","author":"Steyn","year":"2021","journal-title":"J. R. Soc. Interface"},{"key":"2026031004092168000_R31","article-title":"Quarantine and testing strategies to ameliorate transmission due to travel during the COVID-19 pandemic: a modelling study","volume":"14","author":"Wells","year":"2022","journal-title":"Lancet Reg. Health Eur."},{"key":"2026031004092168000_R32","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.2807\/1560-7917.ES.2021.26.39.2001440","article-title":"Strategies to reduce the risk of SARS-CoV-2 importation from international travellers: modelling estimations for the United Kingdom, July 2020","volume":"26","author":"Clifford","year":"2021","journal-title":"Eurosurveillance"},{"key":"2026031004092168000_R33","first-page":"184","article-title":"Effect of vaccination, border testing, and quarantine requirements on the risk of COVID-19 in New Zealand: a modelling study","volume":"7","author":"Steyn","year":"2022","journal-title":"Infect. Dis. Model."},{"key":"2026031004092168000_R34","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e674","DOI":"10.1016\/S2468-2667(21)00167-5","article-title":"Effects of adjusting public health, travel, and social measures during the roll-out of COVID-19 vaccination: a modelling study","volume":"6","author":"Leung","year":"2021","journal-title":"Lancet Public Health"},{"key":"2026031004092168000_R35","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1098\/rsos.220766","article-title":"Modelling Aotearoa New Zealand\u2019s COVID-19 protection framework and the transition away from the elimination strategy","volume":"10","author":"Vattiato","year":"2023","journal-title":"R. Soc. Open Sci."},{"key":"2026031004092168000_R36","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1303","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(22)00462-7","article-title":"Comparative analysis of the risks of hospitalisation and death associated with SARS-CoV-2 omicron (B.1.1.529) and delta (B.1.617.2) variants in England: a cohort study","volume":"399","author":"Nyberg","year":"2022","journal-title":"The Lancet"},{"key":"2026031004092168000_R37","unstructured":"Australian Government. Doherty Institute modelling by jurisdiction sizes\n          . Seehttps:\/\/www.health.gov.au\/resources\/publications\/doherty-institute-modelling-by-jurisdiction-sizes."},{"key":"2026031004092168000_R38","unstructured":"COVID-19 vaccine rollout update\n          . Seehttps:\/\/www.health.gov.au\/resources\/publications\/covid-19-vaccine-rollout-update-6-november-2021 (accessed6-November-2021)."},{"key":"2026031004092168000_R39","unstructured":"COVID-19 vaccine rollout update\n          . Seehttps:\/\/www.health.gov.au\/resources\/publications\/covid-19-vaccine-rollout-update-6-december-2021 (accessed6-December-2021)."},{"key":"2026031004092168000_R40","unstructured":"Omicron variant in confirmed NSW cases\n          . Seehttps:\/\/www.health.nsw.gov.au\/news\/Pages\/20211128_02.aspx (accessed28-November-2021)."},{"key":"2026031004092168000_R41","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"361","DOI":"10.1038\/s41579-023-00878-2","article-title":"The evolution of SARS-CoV-2","volume":"21","author":"Markov","year":"2023","journal-title":"Nat. Rev. Microbiol."},{"key":"2026031004092168000_R42","first-page":"12","article-title":"Optimal COVID-19 quarantine and testing strategies","volume":"18","author":"Wells","year":"2021","journal-title":"Nat. Commun"},{"key":"2026031004092168000_R43","article-title":"A cross-sectional investigation of the mental health and wellbeing among individuals who have been negatively impacted by the COVID-19 international border closure in Australia","volume":"18","author":"Ali","year":"2022","journal-title":"Global. Health"},{"key":"2026031004092168000_R44","unstructured":"Reserve Bank of Australia\n          . 2021Statement on Monetary Policy May 2021. Seehttps:\/\/www.rba.gov.au\/publications\/smp\/2021\/may\/."},{"key":"2026031004092168000_R45","article-title":"aus-covid-modelling\/NationalCabinetModelling-OctNov21: Code used to produce RSIF Publication (v1.0). Zenodo.","author":"Lydeamore","year":"2025"},{"key":"2026031004092168000_R46","article-title":"Supplementary material from: Border quarantine, vaccination and public health measures to mitigate the impact of COVID-19 importations in Australia: a modelling study. Figshare.","author":"Lydeamore","year":"2026"}],"container-title":["Journal of the Royal Society Interface"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/royalsocietypublishing.org\/rsif\/article-pdf\/doi\/10.1098\/rsif.2025.0144\/6114637\/rsif.2025.0144.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"syndication"},{"URL":"https:\/\/royalsocietypublishing.org\/rsif\/article-pdf\/doi\/10.1098\/rsif.2025.0144\/6114637\/rsif.2025.0144.pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,3,10]],"date-time":"2026-03-10T08:09:46Z","timestamp":1773130186000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/royalsocietypublishing.org\/rsif\/article\/23\/235\/20250144\/480481\/Border-quarantine-vaccination-and-public-health"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,25]]},"references-count":46,"journal-issue":{"issue":"235","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,25]]}},"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1098\/rsif.2025.0144","relation":{},"ISSN":["1742-5662"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1742-5662","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,25]]},"article-number":"20250144"}}