{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,19]],"date-time":"2026-06-19T01:01:51Z","timestamp":1781830911042,"version":"3.54.5"},"reference-count":41,"publisher":"The Royal Society","issue":"232","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,11,1]],"date-time":"2025-11-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1761955200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/royalsociety.org\/-\/media\/journals\/author\/Licence-to-Publish-20062019-final.pdf"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,11,1]],"date-time":"2025-11-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1761955200000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/royalsociety.org\/journals\/ethics-policies\/data-sharing-mining\/"}],"funder":[{"name":"Science and Technology Project of Guangxi"},{"name":"the Innovation Project of GUET Graduate Education"},{"name":"Guangxi Natural Science Foundation"},{"name":"Innovation Project of Guangxi Graduate Education"},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001809","name":"National Natural Science Foundation of China","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001809","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["royalsocietypublishing.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["J. R. Soc. Interface."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2025,11]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) remains a major public health challenge in China, exhibiting distinct seasonal patterns. This study integrates meteorological, behavioural and social determinants to elucidate the transmission dynamics of HFMD in Guangzhou. Utilizing surveillance data from 2012 to 2022, we employed regression analysis and developed a mechanistic transmission model incorporating absolute humidity (AH), the Baidu search index (BDI) as a proxy for health-seeking behaviour and holiday effects. The model, calibrated via Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, explained 91.4% of the case variance and estimated a mean time-varying reproduction number of 2.29. Our findings demonstrate that AH and BDI act as significant nonlinear drivers of transmission, while holidays reduced incidence by an average of 21.3%. The implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions during the COVID-19 pandemic was associated with a substantial reduction in HFMD incidence, with cases declining by 88.1% in 2020, 36.6% in 2021 and 72.2% in 2022. This integrative modelling framework effectively captures the multifactorial drivers of HFMD seasonality and provides a robust tool for forecasting outbreaks and informing targeted public health interventions.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1098\/rsif.2025.0337","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,11,26]],"date-time":"2025-11-26T00:05:47Z","timestamp":1764115547000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1098\/crossmark-policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":1,"title":["Meteorological, behavioural and social determinants in HFMD transmission: a modelling study in Guangzhou, China"],"prefix":"10.1098","volume":"22","author":[{"given":"Yanying","family":"Mo","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Mathematics and Computing Science, Guilin University of Electronic Technology","place":["Guilin, People\u2019s Republic of China"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Lingming","family":"Kong","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Mathematics and Computing Science, Guilin University of Electronic Technology","place":["Guilin, People\u2019s Republic of China"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Yangling","family":"Shen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Mathematics and Computing Science, Guilin University of Electronic Technology","place":["Guilin, People\u2019s Republic of China"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Yingtao","family":"Zhang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention","place":["Guangzhou, People\u2019s Republic of China"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Biao","family":"Zeng","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention","place":["Guangzhou, People\u2019s Republic of China"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jianpeng","family":"Xiao","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health","place":["Guangzhou, People\u2019s Republic of China"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Min","family":"Kang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention","place":["Guangzhou, People\u2019s Republic of China"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-1416-1476","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Guanghu","family":"Zhu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Mathematics and Computing Science, Guilin University of Electronic Technology","place":["Guilin, People\u2019s Republic of China"]},{"name":"Guangxi Colleges and Universities Key Laboratory of Data Analysis and Computation, Guilin University of Electronic Technology","place":["Guilin, People\u2019s Republic of China"]},{"name":"Center for Applied Mathematics of Guangxi (GUET)","place":["Guilin, People\u2019s Republic of China"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"175","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,11,26]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_3_8_2_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S1473-3099(13)70342-6"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_3_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/emi.2013.41"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_4_2","first-page":"24","article-title":"Application of meteorological factors and Baidu index in the prediction model of hand, foot, and mouth disease","volume":"48","author":"Zhou J","year":"2022","unstructured":"Zhou J, Peng L, Fu S. 2022 Application of meteorological factors and Baidu index in the prediction model of hand, foot, and mouth disease. Lanzhou Univ. J. 48, 24\u201329. (doi:10.13885\/j.issn.1000-2812.2022.05.005)","journal-title":"Lanzhou Univ. J."},{"key":"e_1_3_8_5_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3934\/mbe.2013.10.1159"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_6_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3934\/mbe.2019022"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_7_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1155\/2020\/5902698"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_8_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1155\/2018\/9254794"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_9_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/s12889-018-5169-3"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_10_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.heliyon.2023.e18212"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_11_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.biosystems.2015.12.001"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_12_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.amc.2015.11.035"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_13_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2020.138548"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_14_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/srep27500"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_15_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/S0950268819002139"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_16_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1155\/2021\/6697522"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_17_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rspb.2013.1345"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_18_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.envres.2020.110465"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_19_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3934\/mbe.2019106"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_20_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/s12889-024-20342-x"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_21_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1201\/9781315370279"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_22_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3390\/ijerph192416880"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_23_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1155\/2023\/9326843"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_24_2","unstructured":"National Health Commission PRC. 2018 Hand-foot-and-mouth disease diagnosis and treatment guidelines (2018 edn). See http:\/\/www.weihaicdc.cn\/module."},{"key":"e_1_3_8_25_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-017-16705-7"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_26_2","first-page":"415","article-title":"Epidemiological study of an \u2018hand-foot-and-mouth disease\u2019 outbreak observed in Rome in the fall of 1973","volume":"230","author":"Tosato G","year":"1975","unstructured":"Tosato G, Rocchi G, Archetti I. 1975 Epidemiological study of an \u2018hand-foot-and-mouth disease\u2019 outbreak observed in Rome in the fall of 1973. Zentralbl. Bakteriol. Orig. A 230, 415\u2013421.","journal-title":"Zentralbl. Bakteriol. Orig. A"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_27_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2011.09.055"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_28_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s11222-006-9438-0"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_29_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jtbi.2008.04.011"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_30_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s11538-008-9299-0"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_31_2","unstructured":"Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). 2021 Viruses that cause hand foot and mouth disease. See https:\/\/www.cdc.gov\/hand-foot-mouth\/about\/transmission.html."},{"key":"e_1_3_8_32_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1128\/AEM.02426-18"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_33_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.4269\/ajtmh.18-0099"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_34_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0011286"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_35_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0179623"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_36_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/17513758.2023.2244968"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_37_2","first-page":"513","article-title":"A dynamic model of hand, foot and mouth disease under different vaccine coverage conditions in Shanghai and Zhejiang province","volume":"47","author":"Li YX","year":"2020","unstructured":"Li YX, Wang Y, Wang WB. 2020 A dynamic model of hand, foot and mouth disease under different vaccine coverage conditions in Shanghai and Zhejiang province. Fudan Univ. J. Med. Sci. 47, 513\u2013520. (doi:10.3969\/j.issn.1672-8467.2020.04.008)","journal-title":"Fudan Univ. J. Med. Sci."},{"key":"e_1_3_8_38_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jtbi.2019.110027"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_39_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3389\/fpubh.2023.1307321"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_40_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2024.100797"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_41_2","unstructured":"Mo Y. 2025 HFMD transmission determinants: meteorological behavioral & social data. Zenodo. (doi:10.5281\/zenodo.17247605)"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_42_2","unstructured":"Mo Y Kong L Shen Y Zhang Y Zeng B Xiao J et al. 2025 Supplementary material from: Meteorological behavioral and social determinants in HFMD transmission: A modeling study in Guangzhou China. Figshare. (doi:10.6084\/m9.figshare.c.8141322)"}],"container-title":["Journal of The Royal Society Interface"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/royalsocietypublishing.org\/doi\/pdf\/10.1098\/rsif.2025.0337","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/royalsocietypublishing.org\/doi\/full-xml\/10.1098\/rsif.2025.0337","content-type":"application\/xml","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/royalsocietypublishing.org\/doi\/pdf\/10.1098\/rsif.2025.0337","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,11,26]],"date-time":"2025-11-26T00:06:09Z","timestamp":1764115569000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/royalsocietypublishing.org\/doi\/10.1098\/rsif.2025.0337"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2025,11]]},"references-count":41,"journal-issue":{"issue":"232","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2025,11]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1098\/rsif.2025.0337"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1098\/rsif.2025.0337","relation":{},"ISSN":["1742-5662"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1742-5662","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2025,11]]},"assertion":[{"value":"2025-04-30","order":0,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2025-09-07","order":1,"name":"revised","label":"Revised","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2025-10-08","order":2,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2025-11-26","order":3,"name":"published","label":"Published","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}}],"article-number":"20250337"}}