{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2025,4,9]],"date-time":"2025-04-09T16:52:44Z","timestamp":1744217564938,"version":"3.37.3"},"reference-count":62,"publisher":"The Royal Society","issue":"11","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2017,11,1]],"date-time":"2017-11-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1509494400000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/royalsociety.org\/journals\/ethics-policies\/data-sharing-mining\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000011","name":"Howard Hughes Medical Institute","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["52006939"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["52006939"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000011","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["royalsocietypublishing.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["R. Soc. open sci."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2017,11]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>The number of Lyme disease (LD) cases in the northeastern United States has been dramatically increasing with over 300\u2009000 new cases each year. This is due to numerous factors interacting over time including low public awareness of LD, risk behaviours and clothing choices, ecological and climatic factors, an increase in rodents within ecologically fragmented peri-urban built environments and an increase in tick density and infectivity in such environments. We have used a system dynamics (SD) approach to develop a simulation tool to evaluate the significance of risk factors in replicating historical trends of LD cases, and to investigate the influence of different interventions, such as increasing awareness, controlling clothing risk and reducing mouse populations, in reducing LD risk. The model accurately replicates historical trends of LD cases. Among several interventions tested using the simulation model, increasing public awareness most significantly reduces the number of LD cases. This model provides recommendations for LD prevention, including further educational programmes to raise awareness and control behavioural risk. This model has the potential to be used by the public health community to assess the risk of exposure to LD.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1098\/rsos.170841","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2017,11,15]],"date-time":"2017-11-15T10:10:15Z","timestamp":1510740615000},"page":"170841","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1098\/crossmark-policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":12,"title":["Model-based risk assessment and public health analysis to prevent Lyme disease"],"prefix":"10.1098","volume":"4","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-9552-2028","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Nasser","family":"Sharareh","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Systems Science and Industrial Engineering Department, The State University of New York at Binghamton, Binghamton, NY, USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Nasim S.","family":"Sabounchi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Systems Science and Industrial Engineering Department, The State University of New York at Binghamton, Binghamton, NY, USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Amanda","family":"Roome","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Anthropology Department, The State University of New York at Binghamton, Binghamton, NY, USA"},{"name":"Laboratory of Biomedical Anthropology and Neurosciences, Anthropology Department, The State University of New York at Binghamton, Binghamton, NY, USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Rita","family":"Spathis","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Anthropology Department, The State University of New York at Binghamton, Binghamton, NY, USA"},{"name":"Laboratory of Biomedical Anthropology and Neurosciences, Anthropology Department, The State University of New York at Binghamton, Binghamton, NY, USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Ralph M.","family":"Garruto","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Anthropology Department, The State University of New York at Binghamton, Binghamton, NY, USA"},{"name":"Laboratory of Biomedical Anthropology and Neurosciences, Anthropology Department, The State University of New York at Binghamton, Binghamton, NY, USA"},{"name":"Biological Sciences Department, The State University of New York at Binghamton, Binghamton, NY, USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"175","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2017,11,15]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_3_7_2_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0149-2918(98)80081-7"},{"key":"e_1_3_7_3_2","first-page":"30","article-title":"Prevention of tick-borne diseases","volume":"74","author":"Piesman J","year":"2012","journal-title":"J. Environ. Health"},{"key":"e_1_3_7_4_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3201\/eid0804.000413"},{"key":"e_1_3_7_5_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1001\/jama.2013.278331"},{"key":"e_1_3_7_6_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s11136-012-0126-6"},{"key":"e_1_3_7_7_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0116767"},{"key":"e_1_3_7_8_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ttbdis.2014.01.008"},{"key":"e_1_3_7_9_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3201\/eid2108.141878"},{"key":"e_1_3_7_10_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.4269\/ajtmh.2012.11-0630"},{"key":"e_1_3_7_11_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rsif.2016.0140"},{"key":"e_1_3_7_12_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10393-004-0139-x"},{"key":"e_1_3_7_13_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/2269360"},{"key":"e_1_3_7_14_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s00442-005-0251-9"},{"key":"e_1_3_7_15_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ttbdis.2016.02.008"},{"key":"e_1_3_7_16_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jtbi.2008.06.020"},{"key":"e_1_3_7_17_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/ije\/dyi284"},{"key":"e_1_3_7_18_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.4269\/ajtmh.2012.11-0395"},{"key":"e_1_3_7_19_2","first-page":"15","volume-title":"Institute of Medicine Committee on Lyme Disease and Other Tick-borne Diseases: The State of the Science Workshop","author":"Munderloh GU","year":"2010"},{"volume-title":"Business dynamics: systems thinking and modeling for a complex world","year":"2000","author":"Sterman JD","key":"e_1_3_7_20_2"},{"key":"e_1_3_7_21_2","unstructured":"McBurney SH. 2016 Limiting Lyme disease: using system dynamics simulation to target health interventions. Master's thesis Dalhousie University Nova Scotia Canada. Available from: https:\/\/dalspace.library.dal.ca\/handle\/10222\/71380."},{"volume-title":"Proc. of the 30th Int. Conf. of the System Dynamics Society","year":"2012","author":"Pruyt E","key":"e_1_3_7_22_2"},{"key":"e_1_3_7_23_2","unstructured":"NYSDOH. 2015 Communicable disease annual reports and related information. See http:\/\/www.health.ny.gov\/statistics\/diseases\/communicable\/."},{"volume-title":"38th Annual Meeting of the Human Biology Association","year":"2013","author":"Darcy IJ","key":"e_1_3_7_24_2"},{"volume-title":"39th Annual Meeting of the Human Biology Association","year":"2014","author":"Roome A","key":"e_1_3_7_25_2"},{"key":"e_1_3_7_26_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1239401"},{"key":"e_1_3_7_27_2","first-page":"139","article-title":"Study on public perceptions and protective behaviors regarding Lyme disease among the general public in the Netherlands","volume":"13","author":"Beaujean DJ","year":"2013","journal-title":"Outbreaks Emerg. Infect. Dis."},{"key":"e_1_3_7_28_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jaad.2010.03.046"},{"key":"e_1_3_7_29_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.puhe.2014.06.016"},{"key":"e_1_3_7_30_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/jvec.12153"},{"key":"e_1_3_7_31_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0084758"},{"key":"e_1_3_7_32_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1139\/z00-162"},{"key":"e_1_3_7_33_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1518\/001872095779049426"},{"key":"e_1_3_7_34_2","unstructured":"Hayes C. 2016 Ecological and evolutionary trends of Lyme disease in the northeastern United States. Verge: the Goucher Journal of Undergraduate Writing . Available from: http:\/\/hdl.handle.net\/11603\/2683."},{"key":"e_1_3_7_35_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ttbdis.2014.09.006"},{"key":"e_1_3_7_36_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/1756-3305-5-8"},{"key":"e_1_3_7_37_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/nrmicro1475"},{"key":"e_1_3_7_38_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"226","DOI":"10.1603\/ME13101","article-title":"Prevalence of Borrelia burgdorferi (Spirochaetales: Spirochaetaceae), Anaplasma phagocytophilum (Rickettsiales: Anaplasmataceae), and Babesia microti (Piroplasmida: Babesiidae) in Ixodes scapularis (Acari: Ixodidae) collected from recreational lands in the Hudson Valley Region, New York State","volume":"51","author":"Prusinski M","year":"2014","journal-title":"J. Med. Entomol."},{"key":"e_1_3_7_39_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"56","DOI":"10.26443\/msurj.v6i1.96","article-title":"Assessment of human health risk for Lyme disease in a periurban park in southern Quebec","volume":"6","author":"Tadiri C","year":"2011","journal-title":"McGill Sci. Undergrad. Res. J."},{"key":"e_1_3_7_40_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rsif.2009.0131"},{"key":"e_1_3_7_41_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2105\/AJPH.93.9.1446"},{"key":"e_1_3_7_42_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1046\/j.1523-1739.2003.01260.x"},{"key":"e_1_3_7_43_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/BF01219108"},{"key":"e_1_3_7_44_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.meegid.2013.12.011"},{"key":"e_1_3_7_45_2","unstructured":"Aguilar S. 2011 Peromyscus leucopus (On-line) Animal Diversity Web [cited 7 November 2016]. See http:\/\/animaldiversity.org\/accounts\/Peromyscus_leucopus\/."},{"key":"e_1_3_7_46_2","unstructured":"Leary S et al. 2013 AVMA guidelines for the euthanasia of animals. Schaumburg IL: American Veterinary Medical Association. Available from: https:\/\/www.avma.org\/KB\/Policies\/Pages\/Euthanasia-Guidelines.aspx."},{"key":"e_1_3_7_47_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S1473-3099(03)00722-9"},{"key":"e_1_3_7_48_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/jmedent\/37.3.357"},{"key":"e_1_3_7_49_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/1935216"},{"key":"e_1_3_7_50_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0013350"},{"key":"e_1_3_7_51_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ergon.2008.10.010"},{"key":"e_1_3_7_52_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1046\/j.1523-1739.2000.99014.x"},{"key":"e_1_3_7_53_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/jmedent\/33.1.140"},{"key":"e_1_3_7_54_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1603\/0022-2585-41.4.622"},{"key":"e_1_3_7_55_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1603\/ME12060"},{"key":"e_1_3_7_56_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/BF01065964"},{"key":"e_1_3_7_57_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"25","DOI":"10.36019\/9780813556031-004","volume-title":"Ecology and environmental management of Lyme disease","author":"Fish D","year":"1993"},{"key":"e_1_3_7_58_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/jmedent\/34.4.461"},{"key":"e_1_3_7_59_2","unstructured":"BU. 2017 Binghamton University Statistics 2017 [updated 17 March 2016]. See http:\/\/www.binghamton.edu\/oira\/bu-data\/index.html."},{"key":"e_1_3_7_60_2","unstructured":"Census. Broome County New York\/Population 2016 [updated 11 October 2016]. See https:\/\/www.google.com\/publicdata\/explore?ds=kf7tgg1uo9ude_&met_y=population&idim=county:36007&hl=en&dl=enn."},{"key":"e_1_3_7_61_2","article-title":"Lyme disease surveillance in New York state: an assessment of case underreporting","author":"White J","year":"2016","journal-title":"Zoonoses Public Health"},{"key":"e_1_3_7_62_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rsif.2015.0666"},{"key":"e_1_3_7_63_2","first-page":"46","article-title":"Knowledge, attitudes, and practices regarding Lyme disease prevention among employees, day visitors, and campers at Greenbelt Park","volume":"32","author":"Jones EH","year":"2016","journal-title":"Park Sci."}],"container-title":["Royal Society Open Science"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/royalsocietypublishing.org\/doi\/pdf\/10.1098\/rsos.170841","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/royalsocietypublishing.org\/doi\/full-xml\/10.1098\/rsos.170841","content-type":"application\/xml","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/royalsocietypublishing.org\/doi\/pdf\/10.1098\/rsos.170841","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2024,6,28]],"date-time":"2024-06-28T17:18:50Z","timestamp":1719595130000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/royalsocietypublishing.org\/doi\/10.1098\/rsos.170841"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2017,11]]},"references-count":62,"journal-issue":{"issue":"11","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2017,11]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1098\/rsos.170841"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1098\/rsos.170841","relation":{},"ISSN":["2054-5703"],"issn-type":[{"type":"electronic","value":"2054-5703"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2017,11]]},"assertion":[{"value":"2017-07-05","order":0,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2017-10-12","order":1,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2017-11-15","order":2,"name":"published","label":"Published","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}}]}}