{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,6]],"date-time":"2026-06-06T08:58:43Z","timestamp":1780736323700,"version":"3.54.1"},"reference-count":26,"publisher":"The Royal Society","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2019,1,1]],"date-time":"2019-01-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1546300800000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/royalsociety.org\/journals\/ethics-policies\/data-sharing-mining\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100015226","name":"Royal Veterinary College","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","award":["Royal Veterinary College Internal PhD Scholarship"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["Royal Veterinary College Internal PhD Scholarship"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100015226","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"crossref"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["royalsocietypublishing.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["R. Soc. open sci."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2019,1]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>\n            Predicting the likelihood of rare events is increasingly demanded by risk managers. A key challenge is dealing with different types of uncertainty, including epistemic uncertainties (lack of knowledge), stochasticity (inherent randomness) and natural variation. One potentially catastrophic event which is impacted by high levels of all three of these uncertainty types is the transmission of livestock pathogens to wildlife, particularly for endangered species. There is often a lack of basic information, e.g. about a given pathogen's presence in local livestock populations or the susceptibility of a given wildlife species to infection by the pathogen. We adapted the OIE (World Organisation for Animal Health) risk assessment framework to rapidly assess and prioritize the risks of livestock pathogens for wildlife, taking account of epistemic uncertainties, stochasticity, seasonal movement of animals and interaction between different species at different spatial and temporal scales. We demonstrate the approach using the endangered saiga antelope (\n            <jats:italic>Saiga tatarica tatarica<\/jats:italic>\n            ) as a case study. We conclude that, in general, transmission events are likely to be rare and limited to small geographical areas; however, their impact could be high.\n            <jats:italic>Brucella<\/jats:italic>\n            spp. and foot-and-mouth disease virus are among those most likely to be transmitted from livestock to the Betpak-Dala saiga population.\n          <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1098\/rsos.181043","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2019,1,16]],"date-time":"2019-01-16T08:09:14Z","timestamp":1547626154000},"page":"181043","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1098\/crossmark-policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":17,"title":["Rapidly assessing the risks of infectious diseases to wildlife species"],"prefix":"10.1098","volume":"6","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-7634-3331","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Wendy","family":"Beauvais","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Royal Veterinary College, Hatfield, UK"},{"name":"Cornell University College of Veterinary Medicine, Ithaca, NY, USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Steffen","family":"Zuther","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Association for the Conservation of Biodiversity of Kazakhstan, Astana, Kazakhstan"},{"name":"Frankfurt Zoological Society, Frankfurt am Main, Germany"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Chantal","family":"Villeneuve","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Royal Veterinary College, Hatfield, UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Richard","family":"Kock","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Royal Veterinary College, Hatfield, UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Javier","family":"Guitian","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Royal Veterinary College, Hatfield, UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"175","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2019,1,16]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_3_6_2_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rsob.170189"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_3_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1890\/1051-0761(2002)012[0618:ATATOU]2.0.CO;2"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_4_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1155\/2013\/571939"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_5_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2903\/j.efsa.2015.3985"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_6_2","unstructured":"Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Crisis Management Centre for Animal Health Mongolia. 2017 Investigation of peste des petits ruminants (PPR) among wild animals and its potential impact on the current PPR situation in livestock. Mission Report."},{"key":"e_1_3_6_7_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.20506\/rst.32.1.2185"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_8_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.7589\/0090-3558-45.1.128"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_9_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1523-1739.2006.00524.x"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_10_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.icesjms.2005.06.005"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_11_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.20506\/rst.14.4.891"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_12_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.20506\/rst.21.1.1324"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_13_2","volume-title":"Handbook on import risk analysis for animals and animal products","author":"Murray N","year":"2004"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_14_2","first-page":"12","article-title":"Saiga aerial survey results for Kazakhstan in 2017","volume":"22","author":"Grachev YA","year":"2017","journal-title":"Saiga News"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_15_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1046\/j.1365-2907.1998.281024.x"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_16_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/sciadv.aao2314"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_17_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.prevetmed.2016.03.016"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_18_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/tbed.12398"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_19_2","unstructured":"Lundervold M. 2001 Infectious diseases of saiga antelopes and domestic livestock in Kazakhstan. PhD thesis University of Warwick Coventry UK."},{"key":"e_1_3_6_20_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.vetpar.2006.02.016"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_21_2","volume-title":"The OIE worldwide monitoring system for wild animal diseases","author":"World Organisation for Animal Health","year":"2014"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_22_2","volume-title":"OIE-listed diseases 2013","author":"OIE","year":"2013"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_23_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/jech.2003.011593"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_24_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.prevetmed.2011.01.001"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_25_2","unstructured":"Lenk M. 2008 [ Demographic and socio-economic situation of the \u2018Altyn Dala Conservation Initiative\u2019 (Kazakhstan) ] [in Russian]. Greifswald Germany."},{"key":"e_1_3_6_26_2","unstructured":"R Core Team. 2015 R: a language and environment for statistical computing. Vienna Austria: R Foundation for Statistical Computing. See https:\/\/www.R-project.org\/."},{"key":"e_1_3_6_27_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s00705-017-3456-4"}],"container-title":["Royal Society Open Science"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/royalsocietypublishing.org\/doi\/pdf\/10.1098\/rsos.181043","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/royalsocietypublishing.org\/doi\/full-xml\/10.1098\/rsos.181043","content-type":"application\/xml","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/royalsocietypublishing.org\/doi\/pdf\/10.1098\/rsos.181043","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2021,2,18]],"date-time":"2021-02-18T06:22:50Z","timestamp":1613629370000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/royalsocietypublishing.org\/doi\/10.1098\/rsos.181043"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2019,1]]},"references-count":26,"journal-issue":{"issue":"1","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2019,1]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1098\/rsos.181043"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1098\/rsos.181043","relation":{},"ISSN":["2054-5703"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2054-5703","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2019,1]]},"assertion":[{"value":"2018-06-26","order":0,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2018-11-30","order":1,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2019-01-16","order":2,"name":"published","label":"Published","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}}]}}