{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,27]],"date-time":"2026-02-27T01:33:52Z","timestamp":1772156032964,"version":"3.50.1"},"reference-count":35,"publisher":"The Royal Society","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2019,1,1]],"date-time":"2019-01-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1546300800000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/royalsociety.org\/journals\/ethics-policies\/data-sharing-mining\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100011199","name":"FP7 Ideas: European Research Council","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","award":["324249"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["324249"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100011199","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"crossref"}]},{"name":"Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis, Universitetet i Oslo"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["royalsocietypublishing.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["R. Soc. open sci."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2019,1]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>\n                    On 3 August 1900, bubonic plague (\n                    <jats:italic>Yersinia pestis<\/jats:italic>\n                    ) broke out in Glasgow for the first time during the Third Pandemic. The local sanitary authorities rigorously tracked the spread of the disease and they found that nearly all of the 35 cases could be linked by contact with a previous case. Despite trapping hundreds of rats in the area, there was no evidence of a rat epizootic and the investigators speculated that the outbreak could be due to human-to-human transmission of bubonic plague. Here we use a likelihood-based method to reconstruct transmission trees for the outbreak. From the description of the outbreak and the reconstructed trees, we infer several epidemiological parameters. We found that the estimated mean serial interval was 7.4\u20139.2 days and the mean effective reproduction number dropped below 1 after implementation of control measures. We also found a high rate of secondary transmissions within households and observations of transmissions from individuals who were not terminally septicaemic. Our results provide important insights into the epidemiology of a bubonic plague outbreak during the Third Pandemic in Europe.\n                  <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1098\/rsos.181695","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2019,1,28]],"date-time":"2019-01-28T05:43:08Z","timestamp":1548654188000},"page":"181695","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1098\/crossmark-policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":23,"title":["Epidemiology of a bubonic plague outbreak in Glasgow, Scotland in 1900"],"prefix":"10.1098","volume":"6","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-2262-0385","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Katharine R.","family":"Dean","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Biosciences, Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES), University of Oslo, 0316 Oslo, Norway"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Fabienne","family":"Krauer","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Biosciences, Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES), University of Oslo, 0316 Oslo, Norway"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Boris V.","family":"Schmid","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Biosciences, Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES), University of Oslo, 0316 Oslo, Norway"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"175","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2019,1,2]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_3_6_2_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/ng.705"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_3_2","first-page":"1","volume-title":"Plague manual: epidemiology, distribution, surveillance and control","author":"Dennis DT","year":"1999"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_4_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1365-3156.2006.01677.x"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_5_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3201\/eid2101.140564"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_6_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1146\/annurev.ento.50.071803.130337"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_7_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3201\/eid1903.121542"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_8_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3201\/eid1305.061084"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_9_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3201\/eid2008.130629"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_10_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1086\/508995"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_11_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/S0022050717000092"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_12_2","unstructured":"Chalmers AK. 1901 Report on certain cases of plague occuring in Glasgow in 1900 pp. 1-104. Glasgow UK: Robert Anderson."},{"key":"e_1_3_6_13_2","unstructured":"Hens N Calatayud L Kurkela S Tamme T Wallinga J. 2012 Robust reconstruction and analysis of outbreak data: influenza A(H1N1)v transmission in a school-based population. Am. J. Epidemiol. 176 196-203. (doi:10.1093\/aje\/kws006)"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_14_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rspb.2015.2026"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_15_2","first-page":"758","article-title":"The plague in Glasgow","volume":"156","year":"1990","journal-title":"Lancet."},{"key":"e_1_3_6_16_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/bmj.2.2071.683"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_17_2","first-page":"625","article-title":"La propagation de la peste","volume":"12","author":"Simond PL","year":"1898","journal-title":"Annales de l'Institut Pasteur"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_18_2","first-page":"357","article-title":"Great Britain: report from Glasgow\u2013verification of plague cases reported in October, 1907\u2013examination of rats for plague-infection, 1900\u20131907","volume":"23","year":"1908","journal-title":"Public Health Rep. (1896\u20131970)"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_19_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/S0022172400033684"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_20_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/S0022172400003284"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_21_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1715640115"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_22_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/clinids\/1.3.563"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_23_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rspb.2016.0618"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_24_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/ehr.12097"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_25_2","first-page":"xv, 180","volume-title":"Plague and the poor in Renaissance Florence","author":"Carmichael AG","year":"1986"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_26_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1162\/jinh.2007.38.2.177"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_27_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/ajpa.23266"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_28_2","first-page":"693","article-title":"Clinical and epidemiological observations on an outbreak of plague in Nepal","volume":"45","author":"LaForce FM","year":"1971","journal-title":"Bull. World Health Organ."},{"key":"e_1_3_6_29_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/S0022172400033702"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_30_2","first-page":"1","volume-title":"Department of public","author":"Thompson JA","year":"1900"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_31_2","first-page":"3457","article-title":"Weekly reports for December 25, 1914","volume":"29","year":"1914","journal-title":"Public Health Rep."},{"key":"e_1_3_6_32_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1469-0691.2012.03778.x"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_33_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S1473-3099(06)70438-8"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_34_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/jme\/tjv128"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_35_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/jme\/tjw004"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_36_2","first-page":"34","article-title":"On the date of appearance and duration of bacillus pestis in the peripheral blood of cases of bubonic plague in India","volume":"7","author":"Greig EDW","year":"1906","journal-title":"J. R Army Med. Corps."}],"container-title":["Royal Society Open Science"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/royalsocietypublishing.org\/doi\/pdf\/10.1098\/rsos.181695","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/royalsocietypublishing.org\/doi\/full-xml\/10.1098\/rsos.181695","content-type":"application\/xml","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/royalsocietypublishing.org\/doi\/pdf\/10.1098\/rsos.181695","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2021,2,18]],"date-time":"2021-02-18T01:16:10Z","timestamp":1613610970000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/royalsocietypublishing.org\/doi\/10.1098\/rsos.181695"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2019,1]]},"references-count":35,"journal-issue":{"issue":"1","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2019,1]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1098\/rsos.181695"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1098\/rsos.181695","relation":{"has-preprint":[{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.1101\/340547","asserted-by":"object"}]},"ISSN":["2054-5703"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2054-5703","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2019,1]]},"assertion":[{"value":"2018-10-10","order":0,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2018-11-26","order":1,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2019-01-02","order":2,"name":"published","label":"Published","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}}]}}