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Soc. open sci."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2020,12]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>We study a general multi-host model of visceral leishmaniasis including both humans and animals, and where host and vector characteristics are captured via host competence along with vector biting preference. Additionally, the model accounts for spatial heterogeneity in human population and heterogeneity in biting behaviour of sandflies. We then use parameters for visceral leishmaniasis in the Indian subcontinent as an example and demonstrate that the model exhibits backward bifurcation, i.e. it has a human infection and a sandfly population threshold, characterized by a bi-stable region. These thresholds shift as a function of host competence, host population size, vector feeding preference, spatial heterogeneity, biting heterogeneity and control efforts. In particular, if control is applied through human treatment a new and lower human infection threshold is created, making elimination difficult to achieve, before eventually the human infection threshold no longer exists, making it impossible to control the disease by only reducing the infection levels below a certain threshold. A better strategy would be to reduce the human infection below a certain threshold potentially by early diagnosis, control animal population levels and keep the vector population under check. Spatial heterogeneity in human populations lowers the overall thresholds as a result of weak migration between patches.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1098\/rsos.200904","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2020,12,16]],"date-time":"2020-12-16T08:07:19Z","timestamp":1608106039000},"page":"200904","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1098\/crossmark-policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Complexity and critical thresholds in the dynamics of visceral leishmaniasis"],"prefix":"10.1098","volume":"7","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-4425-0805","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Shakir","family":"Bilal","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Amity Institute of Integrative Sciences and Health, Amity University Haryana, Gurugram (Manesar), Haryana 122 413, India"},{"name":"Department of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN 46556, USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Rocio","family":"Caja Rivera","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN 46556, USA"},{"name":"Center for Global Health Infectious Disease Research, University of South Florida, 3720 Spectrum Blvd, Suite 304, Tampa, FL 33612, USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Anuj","family":"Mubayi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"College of Health Solutions, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85281, USA"},{"name":"Department of Mathematics, Illinois State University, IL, Normal, USA"},{"name":"PRECISIONheor, Los Angeles, CA, USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Edwin","family":"Michael","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN 46556, USA"},{"name":"Center for Global Health Infectious Disease Research, University of South Florida, 3720 Spectrum Blvd, Suite 304, Tampa, FL 33612, USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"175","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2020,12,16]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_3_9_2_2","first-page":"33","article-title":"Contributions to the mathematical theory of epidemics\u2014I","volume":"53","author":"Kermack WO","year":"1991","journal-title":"Bull. 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