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Soc. open sci."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2023,5]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>The distribution and transmission of<jats:italic>Yersinia pestis<\/jats:italic>, the bacterial agent of plague, responds dynamically to climate, both within wildlife reservoirs and human populations. The exact mechanisms mediating plague's response to climate are still poorly understood, particularly across large environmentally heterogeneous regions encompassing several reservoir species. A heterogeneous response to precipitation was observed in plague intensity across northern and southern China during the Third Pandemic. This has been attributed to the response of reservoir species in each region. We use environmental niche modelling and hindcasting methods to test the response of a broad range of reservoir species to precipitation. We find little support for the hypothesis that the response of reservoir species to precipitation mediated the impact of precipitation on plague intensity. We instead observed that precipitation variables were of limited importance in defining species niches and rarely showed the expected response to precipitation across northern and southern China. These findings do not suggest that precipitation\u2013reservoir species dynamics never influence plague intensity but that instead, the response of reservoir species to precipitation across a single biome cannot be assumed and that limited numbers of reservoir species may have a disproportional impact upon plague intensity.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1098\/rsos.230021","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2023,5,17]],"date-time":"2023-05-17T07:27:45Z","timestamp":1684308465000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1098\/crossmark-policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":4,"title":["The role of reservoir species in mediating plague's dynamic response to climate"],"prefix":"10.1098","volume":"10","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-6009-4270","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Henry Gillies","family":"Fell","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Geography, University of Nottingham, Nottingham NG7 2RD, UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-8116-5568","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Matthew","family":"Jones","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Geography, University of Nottingham, Nottingham NG7 2RD, UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5705-8727","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Steve","family":"Atkinson","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre for Biomolecular Sciences, Nottingham University, Nottingham NG7 2JE, UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-1591-5399","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Nils Christian","family":"Stenseth","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Biosciences, Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis, University of Oslo, Oslo 0316, Norway"},{"name":"Department of Earth System Science, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-8095-0097","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Adam C.","family":"Algar","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Biology, Lakehead University, Ontario P7B 5E1, Canada"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"175","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2023,5,17]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_3_6_2_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.0602447103"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_3_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/s13071-016-1366-z"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_4_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1412887112"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_5_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.4269\/ajtmh.2010.09-0775"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_6_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rspb.2007.0568"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_7_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.ppat.1002160"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_8_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1019486108"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_9_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/1749-4877.12511"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_10_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pmed.0050003"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_11_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/geb.13453"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_12_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rspb.2014.1846"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_13_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41467-019-14099-w"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_14_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/1741-7007-8-112"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_15_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1515\/9781503616134"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_16_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1110585109"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_17_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1128\/CMR.00044-19"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_18_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s00376-009-0109-x"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_19_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10393-005-3877-5"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_20_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1749-4877.2010.00199.x"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_21_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/s13071-016-1466-9"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_22_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1015946108"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_23_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1095854"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_24_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/ecog.02125"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_25_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e05877","DOI":"10.1111\/ecog.05877","article-title":"Species distribution models rarely predict the biology of real populations","volume":"2022","author":"A. 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