{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,13]],"date-time":"2026-10-13T11:46:05Z","timestamp":1791891965062,"version":"4.3.4"},"reference-count":47,"publisher":"The Royal Society","issue":"6","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2024,6,1]],"date-time":"2024-06-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1717200000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2024,6,1]],"date-time":"2024-06-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1717200000000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"name":"Infected Blood Inquiry"},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100018336","name":"National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100018336","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"name":"MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis"},{"name":"MRC Biostatistics Unit"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["royalsocietypublishing.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["R. Soc. Open Sci."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2024,6]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>The Statistics Expert Group was convened at the request of the Infected Blood Inquiry to provide estimates of the number of infections and deaths from blood-borne infections including hepatitis B virus, human immunodeficiency virus, hepatitis C virus (HCV) and variant Creutzfeldt Jakob disease, as a direct result of contaminated blood and blood products administered in the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland (UK). In the absence of databases of HCV infections and related deaths for all nations of the UK, a statistical model was required to estimate the number of infections and subsequent deaths from HCV acquired from blood transfusions from January 1970 to August 1991. We present this statistical model in detail alongside the results of its application to each of the four nations in the UK. We estimated that 26\u2009800 people (95% uncertainty interval 21 300\u201338 800) throughout the UK were chronically infected with HCV because of contaminated blood transfusions between January 1970 and August 1991. The number of deaths up to the end of 2019 that occurred as a result of this chronic infection is estimated to be 1820 (95% uncertainty interval 650\u20133320).<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1098\/rsos.231722","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2024,6,5]],"date-time":"2024-06-05T03:39:39Z","timestamp":1717558779000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1098\/crossmark-policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":2,"title":["Modelling hepatitis C infection acquired from blood transfusions in the UK between 1970 and 1991 for the Infected Blood Inquiry"],"prefix":"10.1098","volume":"11","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-9976-6537","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Sarah","family":"Hayes","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Statistics, University of Oxford","place":["Oxford, UK"]},{"name":"NIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Emerging and Zoonotic Infections","place":["Liverpool, UK"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-6368-9103","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Ruth","family":"McCabe","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Statistics, University of Oxford","place":["Oxford, UK"]},{"name":"NIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Emerging and Zoonotic Infections","place":["Liverpool, UK"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-6619-6112","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Daniela","family":"De Angelis","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"MRC Biostatistics Unit, School of Clinical Medicine, University of Cambridge","place":["Cambridge, UK"]},{"name":"NIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Behavioural Science and Evaluation","place":["Bristol, UK"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-0195-2463","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Christl A.","family":"Donnelly","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Statistics, University of Oxford","place":["Oxford, UK"]},{"name":"NIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Emerging and Zoonotic Infections","place":["Liverpool, UK"]},{"name":"Pandemic Sciences Institute, University of Oxford","place":["Oxford, UK"]},{"name":"MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London","place":["London, UK"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Stephen J. W.","family":"Evans","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine","place":["London, UK"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Graham F.","family":"Medley","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine","place":["London, UK"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"David J.","family":"Spiegelhalter","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre for Mathematical Sciences, University of Cambridge","place":["Cambridge, UK"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Sheila M.","family":"Bird","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"MRC Biostatistics Unit, School of Clinical Medicine, University of Cambridge","place":["Cambridge, UK"]},{"name":"Edinburgh University\u2019s College of Medicine and Veterinary Medicine","place":["Edinburgh, UK"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"175","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2024,6,5]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_3_8_2_2","unstructured":"National Health Service . 2017 PM statement on contaminated blood inquiry: 11 July 2017. 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