{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,14]],"date-time":"2026-10-14T11:02:12Z","timestamp":1791975732266,"version":"4.4.0"},"reference-count":39,"publisher":"The Royal Society","issue":"4","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,4,1]],"date-time":"2025-04-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1743465600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,4,1]],"date-time":"2025-04-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1743465600000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100000196","name":"Canada Foundation for Innovation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100000196","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100000024","name":"Canadian Institutes of Health Research","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100000024","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100000038","name":"Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100000038","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["royalsocietypublishing.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["R. Soc. Open Sci."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2025,4]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>Edge-based network models, especially those based on bond percolation methods, can be used to model disease transmission on complex networks and accommodate social heterogeneity while keeping tractability. Here we present an application of an edge-based network model to the spread of syphilis in the Kingston, Frontenac and Lennox &amp; Addington region of southeastern Ontario, Canada. We compared the results of using a network-based susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) model to those generated from using a traditional mass action SIR model. We found that the network model yields very different predictions, including a much lower estimate of the final epidemic size. We also used the network model to estimate the potential impact of introducing a rapid syphilis point of care test and treatment intervention strategy that has recently been implemented by the public health unit to mitigate syphilis transmission.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1098\/rsos.250032","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,4,29]],"date-time":"2025-04-29T19:09:23Z","timestamp":1745953763000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1098\/crossmark-policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":3,"title":["Edge-based modelling for disease transmission on random graphs: an application to mitigate a syphilis outbreak"],"prefix":"10.1098","volume":"12","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0000-9741-0548","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Sicheng","family":"Zhao","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Mathematics and Statistics, McMaster University","place":["Hamilton, Canada"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Sahar","family":"Saeed","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Public Health Sciences, Queen's University","place":["Kingston, Canada"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Megan","family":"Carter","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Public Health Sciences, Queen's University","place":["Kingston, Canada"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Bradley","family":"Stoner","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Public Health Sciences, Queen's University","place":["Kingston, Canada"]},{"name":"Centers for Disease Control and Prevention","place":["Atlanta, USA"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Maggie","family":"Hoover","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Kingston Frontenac and Lennox and Addington Public Health","place":["Kingston, Canada"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Hugh","family":"Guan","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Kingston Frontenac and Lennox and Addington Public Health","place":["Kingston, Canada"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-1064-0357","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Felicia Maria G.","family":"Magpantay","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Queen's University","place":["Kingston, Canada"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"175","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,4,30]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_3_8_2_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1046\/j.1537-2995.1990.30991048793.x"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_3_2","first-page":"1983","volume-title":"Goldman-cecil medicine, vol. 2, 26th edn","author":"Ghanem K","year":"2020","unstructured":"Ghanem K, Hook E. 2020 Syphilis. In Goldman-cecil medicine, vol. 2, 26th edn (eds L Goldman, AI Schafer), pp. 1983\u20131989. Philadelphia, PA: Elsevier."},{"key":"e_1_3_8_4_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.14745\/ccdr.v48i23a01"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_5_2","unstructured":"Public Health Ontario (PHO). 2024 Syphilis in Ontario- focus on 2022. See https:\/\/www.publichealthontario.ca\/-\/media\/Documents\/S\/2023\/syphilis-ontario-focus-2022.pdf."},{"key":"e_1_3_8_6_2","unstructured":"Public Health Ontario (PHO). 2024 Maternal and early congenital syphilis in Ontario: 2020-2022. See https:\/\/www.publichealthontario.ca\/-\/media\/Documents\/S\/2023\/syphilis-ontario-focus-2022.pdf."},{"key":"e_1_3_8_7_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1128\/CMR.12.2.187"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_8_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1097\/OLQ.0000000000000842"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_9_2","unstructured":"Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC). 2024 Syphilis: symptoms and treatment. See https:\/\/www.canada.ca\/en\/public-health\/services\/diseases\/syphilis.html."},{"key":"e_1_3_8_10_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/bmj.39085.518148.BE"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_11_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/bmjopen-2024-089021"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_12_2","unstructured":"The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). 2023 About syphilis. See https:\/\/www.cdc.gov\/ syphilis\/about\/."},{"key":"e_1_3_8_13_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rspa.1927.0118"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_14_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1103\/PhysRevE.64.026118"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_15_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0195-6698(80)80030-8"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_16_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1103\/PhysRevE.66.016128"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_17_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1137\/0111066"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_18_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0025-5564(82)90036-0"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_19_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jtbi.2012.06.012"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_20_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rspb.1999.0716"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_21_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rsif.2008.0218"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_22_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rsif.2011.0403"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_23_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/mma.10963"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_24_2","unstructured":"Statistics Canada. 2011 Low-income measure after tax (LIM-AT). See https:\/\/www12.statcan.gc.ca\/nhs-enm\/2011\/ref\/dict\/fam021-eng.cfm."},{"key":"e_1_3_8_25_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1097\/00007435-200104000-00003"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_26_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/jurban\/78.3.433"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_27_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1097\/OLQ.0000000000000784"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_28_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.14745\/ccdr.v44i02a05"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_29_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S1286-4579(02)00058-8"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_30_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/35082140"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_31_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1097\/00007435-200406000-00012"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_32_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/30918"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_33_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1137\/070710111"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_34_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1137\/S003614450342480"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_35_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3389\/fvets.2020.00596"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_36_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1097\/OLQ.0000000000000412"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_37_2","first-page":"03","article-title":"Continuous counterparts of Poisson and binomial distributions and their properties","volume":"39","author":"Ilienko A","year":"2013","unstructured":"Ilienko A. 2013 Continuous counterparts of Poisson and binomial distributions and their properties. Annales Universitatis Scientiarum Budapestinensis de Rolando E\u00f6tv\u00f6s Nominatae. Sectio Computatorica 39, 03. (doi:10.48550\/arXiv.1303.5990)","journal-title":"Annales Universitatis Scientiarum Budapestinensis de Rolando E\u00f6tv\u00f6s Nominatae. Sectio Computatorica"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_38_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1097\/OLQ.0000000000001353"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_39_2","unstructured":"Zhao S. 2025 RichardSichengZhao\/Data-Repository-for-EBM\u2009forDisTransOnRandGraphs-An\u2009-Application-to-Mitigate-a-Syphilis-Outbreak: Release for RSOS submission (v2.0.1). Zenodo. (doi:10.5281\/zenodo.15090772)"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_40_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Zhao S Saeed S Carter M Stoner B Hoover M Guan H. 2025 Supplementary material from: Edge-based modeling for disease transmission on random graphs: an application to mitigate a syphilis outbreak. Figshare. (doi:10.6084\/m9.figshare.c.7750313)","DOI":"10.1002\/mma.10963"}],"container-title":["Royal Society Open Science"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/royalsocietypublishing.org\/doi\/pdf\/10.1098\/rsos.250032","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/royalsocietypublishing.org\/doi\/full-xml\/10.1098\/rsos.250032","content-type":"application\/xml","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/royalsocietypublishing.org\/doi\/pdf\/10.1098\/rsos.250032","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,4,29]],"date-time":"2025-04-29T19:09:27Z","timestamp":1745953767000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/royalsocietypublishing.org\/doi\/10.1098\/rsos.250032"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2025,4]]},"references-count":39,"journal-issue":{"issue":"4","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2025,4]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1098\/rsos.250032"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1098\/rsos.250032","relation":{"has-review":[{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.1098\/RSOS.250032\/v1\/review1","asserted-by":"object"},{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.1098\/RSOS.250032\/v1\/review2","asserted-by":"object"},{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.1098\/RSOS.250032\/v2\/decision1","asserted-by":"object"},{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.1098\/RSOS.250032\/v1\/decision1","asserted-by":"object"},{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.1098\/RSOS.250032\/v2\/response1","asserted-by":"object"}]},"ISSN":["2054-5703"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2054-5703","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2025,4]]},"assertion":[{"value":"2025-01-06","order":0,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2025-03-26","order":1,"name":"revised","label":"Revised","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2025-03-27","order":2,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2025-04-30","order":3,"name":"published","label":"Published","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}}],"article-number":"250032"}}