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A predominantly positive relationship of persistence with birth rate is complicated by the accompanying dynamical transitions of the underlying deterministic process. We show that these transitions imply a lower CCS for high birth rate less developed countries and contrary to the experience in lower birth rate, industrial countries, the CCS may increase after vaccination. We also consider the evolutionary implications of the CCS for the origin of measles; this analysis explores how the deterministic and stochastic thresholds for invasion and persistence set limits on the mechanism by which this highly infectious pathogen could have successfully colonized its human host.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1098\/rspb.2006.0030","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2007,2,27]],"date-time":"2007-02-27T21:24:24Z","timestamp":1172611464000},"page":"1133-1141","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":68,"title":["Seasonality and the persistence and invasion of measles"],"prefix":"10.1098","volume":"274","author":[{"given":"Andrew J.K","family":"Conlan","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"DAMTP, Centre for Mathematical SciencesWilberforce Road, Cambridge CB3 0WA, UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Bryan T","family":"Grenfell","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, The Pennsylvania State University208 Mueller Lab, University Park, PA 16802, USA"},{"name":"Fogarty International Center, US National Institutes of HealthBethesda, MD 20892, USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"175","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2007,2,27]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_3_2_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.90.24.11698"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Anderson R& May R Infectious diseases of humans: dynamics and control. 1991 New York NY:Oxford University Press.","DOI":"10.1093\/oso\/9780198545996.001.0001"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/biomet\/67.1.191"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0040-5809(90)90003-E"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0022-5193(84)80150-2"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_7_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/S0950268800057976"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/2342553"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_9_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/2343186"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_10_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rspb.2003.2410"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_11_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0022-5193(66)90161-5"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_12_1","unstructured":"Black F.L Viral infections of humans\u2014epidemiology and control. 2nd edn. 1984 New York NY:Plenum Medical Book Co ch. 15."},{"key":"e_1_3_2_13_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rstb.1995.0070"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_14_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.93.22.12648"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_15_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.micinf.2004.12.018"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_16_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.0954-6820.1953.tb15701.x"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_17_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.0954-6820.1953.tb15717.x"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_18_1","first-page":"2","article-title":"Measles in virgin soil Greenland 1951","volume":"1","author":"Christensen P.E","year":"1954","journal-title":"Dan. 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