{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,3]],"date-time":"2026-10-03T18:19:59Z","timestamp":1791051599974,"version":"4.1.0"},"reference-count":28,"publisher":"The Royal Society","issue":"1623","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2007,7,20]],"date-time":"2007-07-20T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1184889600000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/royalsociety.org\/journals\/ethics-policies\/data-sharing-mining\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Proc. R. Soc. B."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2007,9,22]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>The identification of H5N1 in domestic poultry in Europe has increased the risk of infection reaching most industrialized poultry populations. Here, using detailed data on the poultry population in Great Britain (GB), we show that currently planned interventions based on movement restrictions can be expected to control the majority of outbreaks. The probability that controls fail to keep an outbreak small only rises to significant levels if most transmission occurs via mechanisms which are both untraceable and largely independent of the local density of premises. We show that a predictor of the need to intensify control efforts in GB is whether an outbreak exceeds 20 infected premises. In such a scenario neither localized reactive vaccination nor localized culling are likely to have a substantial impact. The most effective of these contingent interventions are large radius (10\u200akm) localized culling and national vaccination. However, the modest impact of these approaches must be balanced against their substantial inconvenience and cost.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1098\/rspb.2007.0542","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2007,7,25]],"date-time":"2007-07-25T20:05:25Z","timestamp":1185393925000},"page":"2287-2295","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":56,"title":["Control of a highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza outbreak in the GB poultry flock"],"prefix":"10.1098","volume":"274","author":[{"given":"James","family":"Truscott","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College LondonNorfolk Place, St Mary's Campus, London W2 1PG, UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Tini","family":"Garske","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College LondonNorfolk Place, St Mary's Campus, London W2 1PG, UK"},{"name":"Department of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical MedicineLondon WC1E 7HT, UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Irina","family":"Chis-Ster","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College LondonNorfolk Place, St Mary's Campus, London W2 1PG, UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Javier","family":"Guitian","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Epidemiology Unit, Royal Veterinary CollegeLondon NW1 0TU, UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Dirk","family":"Pfeiffer","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Epidemiology Unit, Royal Veterinary CollegeLondon NW1 0TU, UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Lucy","family":"Snow","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre for Epidemiology and Risk Analysis, Veterinary Laboratories AgencyWeybridge, New Haw, Surrey KT15 3NB, UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"John","family":"Wilesmith","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical MedicineLondon WC1E 7HT, UK"},{"name":"Department for the Environment, Food and Rural AffairsLondon SE1 7TL, UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Neil M","family":"Ferguson","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College LondonNorfolk Place, St Mary's Campus, London W2 1PG, UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Azra C","family":"Ghani","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical MedicineLondon WC1E 7HT, UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"175","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2007,7,20]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_3_2_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pcbi.0030071"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_3_1","unstructured":"Canadian Food Inspection Agency 2004 A short summary of the 2004 outbreak of high pathogenicity avian influenza (H7N3) in British Columbia Canada."},{"key":"e_1_3_2_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/03079450600717174"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/0307945031000121077"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.vaccine.2004.04.017"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_7_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/0307945021000070714"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0000502"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_9_1","unstructured":"Department for the Environment Food and Rural Affairs 2006 a The Avian Influenza and Influenza of Avian Origin in Mammals (England) Order 2006."},{"key":"e_1_3_2_10_1","unstructured":"Department for the Environment Food and Rural Affairs 2006 b Exotic Animal Generic Contingency Plan: 2006 Draft Consultation Document July 2006."},{"key":"e_1_3_2_11_1","unstructured":"Department for the Environment Food and Rural Affairs 2007 Avian influenza (bird flu): news archive."},{"key":"e_1_3_2_12_1","unstructured":"Domenech J. Lubroth J. & Martin V. 2006 Avian influenza: global situation. In FAO\/OIE Int. Scientific Conf. on Avian Influenza and Wild Birds Rome Italy ."},{"key":"e_1_3_2_13_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/03079450410001724012"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_14_1","unstructured":"Essen S. Gardner R. Outtrim L. Koylass M. McCauley J. Iqbal M. & Brown I. 2006 Comparison of infectivity duration and levels of shedding of low and high-pathogenicity avian influenza A H7N1 viruses in chickens and turkeys. 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