{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,4]],"date-time":"2026-10-04T00:28:07Z","timestamp":1791073687116,"version":"4.1.0"},"reference-count":29,"publisher":"The Royal Society","issue":"1621","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2007,6,5]],"date-time":"2007-06-05T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1181001600000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/royalsociety.org\/journals\/ethics-policies\/data-sharing-mining\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Proc. R. Soc. B."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2007,8,22]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>\n            In central Asia, the great gerbil (\n            <jats:italic>Rhombomys opimus<\/jats:italic>\n            ) is the main host for the bacterium\n            <jats:italic>Yersinia pestis<\/jats:italic>\n            , the cause of bubonic plague. In order to prevent plague outbreaks, monitoring of the great gerbil has been carried out in Kazakhstan since the late 1940s. We use the resulting data to demonstrate that climate forcing synchronizes the dynamics of gerbils over large geographical areas. As it is known that gerbil densities need to exceed a threshold level for plague to persist, synchrony in gerbil abundance across large geographical areas is likely to be a condition for plague outbreaks at similar large scales. Here, we substantiate this proposition through autoregressive modelling involving the normalized differentiated vegetation index as a forcing covariate. Based upon predicted climate changes, our study suggests that during the next century, plague epizootics may become more frequent in central Asia.\n          <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1098\/rspb.2007.0568","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2007,6,5]],"date-time":"2007-06-05T20:58:48Z","timestamp":1181077128000},"page":"1963-1969","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":77,"title":["Climatically driven synchrony of gerbil populations allows large-scale plague outbreaks"],"prefix":"10.1098","volume":"274","author":[{"given":"Kyrre","family":"Linn\u00e9 Kausrud","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES), Department of Biology, University of OsloPO Box 1066, 0316 Oslo, Norway"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Hildegunn","family":"Viljugrein","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES), Department of Biology, University of OsloPO Box 1066, 0316 Oslo, Norway"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Arnoldo","family":"Frigessi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Statistics for Innovation, University of Oslo0317 Oslo, Norway"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Mike","family":"Begon","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Biological Sciences, University of LiverpoolLiverpool L69 7ZB, UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Stephen","family":"Davis","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Biology, University of AntwerpGroenenborgerlaan 171, 2020 Antwerp, Belgium"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Herwig","family":"Leirs","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Biology, University of AntwerpGroenenborgerlaan 171, 2020 Antwerp, Belgium"},{"name":"Faculty of Agricultural Sciences, University of AarhusPO Box 50, 8830 Tjele, Kongens Lyngby, Denmark"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Vladimir","family":"Dubyanskiy","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Kazakh Scientific Centre for Quarantine and Zoonotic Diseases14 Kapalskaya Street, Almaty 480074, Republic of Kazakhstan"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Nils Chr","family":"Stenseth","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES), Department of Biology, University of OsloPO Box 1066, 0316 Oslo, Norway"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"175","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2007,6,5]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_3_2_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3201\/eid1202.050651"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1023\/A:1009601932481"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0169-5347(99)01677-8"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.7589\/0090-3558-8.1.85"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1095854"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_7_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1089\/vbz.2005.5.305"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_8_1","unstructured":"Davis S. 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