{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,12]],"date-time":"2026-05-12T08:01:42Z","timestamp":1778572902014,"version":"3.51.4"},"reference-count":54,"publisher":"The Royal Society","issue":"1720","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2011,2,23]],"date-time":"2011-02-23T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1298419200000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/royalsociety.org\/journals\/ethics-policies\/data-sharing-mining\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["royalsocietypublishing.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Proc. R. Soc. B."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2011,10,7]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>Predicting the dynamics of zoonoses in wildlife is important not only for prevention of transmission to humans, but also for improving the general understanding of epidemiological processes. A large dataset on sylvatic plague in the Pre-Balkhash area of Kazakhstan (collected for surveillance purposes) provides a rare opportunity for detailed statistical modelling of an infectious disease. Previous work using these data has revealed a host abundance threshold for epizootics, and climatic influences on plague prevalence. Here, we present a model describing the local space\u2013time dynamics of the disease at a spatial scale of 20 \u00d7 20 km<jats:sup>2<\/jats:sup>and a biannual temporal scale, distinguishing between invasion and persistence events. We used a Bayesian imputation method to account for uncertainties resulting from poor data in explanatory variables and response variables. Spatial autocorrelation in the data was accounted for in imputations and analyses through random effects. The results show (i) a clear effect of spatial transmission, (ii) a high probability of persistence compared with invasion, and (iii) a stronger influence of rodent abundance on invasion than on persistence. In particular, there was a substantial probability of persistence also at low host abundance.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1098\/rspb.2010.2614","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2011,2,23]],"date-time":"2011-02-23T10:26:49Z","timestamp":1298456809000},"page":"2915-2923","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1098\/crossmark-policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":19,"title":["Emergence, spread, persistence and fade-out of sylvatic plague in Kazakhstan"],"prefix":"10.1098","volume":"278","author":[{"given":"Lise","family":"Heier","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES), Department of Biology, University of Oslo, PO Box 1066 Blindern, 0316 Oslo, Norway"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Geir O.","family":"Storvik","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES), Department of Biology, University of Oslo, PO Box 1066 Blindern, 0316 Oslo, Norway"},{"name":"Department of Mathematics, University of Oslo, PO Box 1053 Blindern, 0316 Oslo, Norway"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Stephen A.","family":"Davis","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Theoretical Epidemiology, Department of Farm Animal Health, University of Utrecht, Yalelaan 7, 3584 Utrecht, The Netherlands"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Hildegunn","family":"Viljugrein","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES), Department of Biology, University of Oslo, PO Box 1066 Blindern, 0316 Oslo, Norway"},{"name":"Norwegian Veterinary Institute, PO Box 75 Sentrum, 0106 Oslo, Norway"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Vladimir S.","family":"Ageyev","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Kazakh Scientific Centre for Quarantine and Zoonotic Diseases, 14 Kapalskaya Street, Almaty 050054, Republic of Kazakhstan"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Evgeniya","family":"Klassovskaya","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Taldykorgan Plague Control Station, 104 Tauelsizdyk Street, Taldykorgan 040000, Republic of Kazakhstan"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Nils Chr.","family":"Stenseth","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES), Department of Biology, University of Oslo, PO Box 1066 Blindern, 0316 Oslo, Norway"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"175","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2011,2,23]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_3_3_2_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S1286-4579(01)01515-5"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_3_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.96.24.14043"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_4_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pmed.0050003"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_5_2","volume-title":"Epidemiology and distribution of plague.","author":"Tikhomirov E.","year":"1999"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_6_2","first-page":"278","article-title":"International meeting on preventing and controlling plague: the old calamity still has a future","volume":"81","author":"WHO","year":"2006","journal-title":"Wkly Epidemiol. 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