{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,25]],"date-time":"2026-09-25T02:09:58Z","timestamp":1790302198966,"version":"4.1.0"},"reference-count":58,"publisher":"The Royal Society","issue":"1830","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2016,5,11]],"date-time":"2016-05-11T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1462924800000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/royalsociety.org\/journals\/ethics-policies\/data-sharing-mining\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100000268","name":"Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","award":["BB\/L023458\/1"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["BB\/L023458\/1"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100000268","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"crossref"}]},{"name":"Medical Research Council","award":["MR\/K010174\/1B"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["MR\/K010174\/1B"]}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100000272","name":"National Institute for Health Research","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","award":["HPRU-2012-10080"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["HPRU-2012-10080"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100000272","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"crossref"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["royalsocietypublishing.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Proc. R. Soc. B."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2016,5,11]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>\n            Plague, caused by the bacterium\n            <jats:italic>Yersinia pestis<\/jats:italic>\n            , is one of the deadliest infectious diseases in human history, and still causes worrying outbreaks in Africa and South America. Despite the historical and current importance of plague, several questions remain unanswered concerning its transmission routes and infection risk factors. The plague outbreak that started in September 1665 in the Derbyshire village of Eyam claimed 257 lives over 14 months, wiping out entire families. Since previous attempts at modelling the Eyam plague, new data have been unearthed from parish records revealing a much more complete record of the disease. Using a stochastic compartmental model and Bayesian analytical methods, we found that both rodent-to-human and human-to-human transmission played an important role in spreading the infection, and that they accounted, respectively, for a quarter and three-quarters of all infections, with a statistically significant seasonality effect. We also found that the force of infection was stronger for infectious individuals living in the same household compared with the rest of the village. Poverty significantly increased the risk of disease, whereas adulthood decreased the risk. These results on the Eyam outbreak contribute to the current debate on the relative importance of plague transmission routes.\n          <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1098\/rspb.2016.0618","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2016,5,11]],"date-time":"2016-05-11T09:23:15Z","timestamp":1462958595000},"page":"20160618","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1098\/crossmark-policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":44,"title":["Epidemiological analysis of the Eyam plague outbreak of 1665\u20131666"],"prefix":"10.1098","volume":"283","author":[{"given":"Lilith K.","family":"Whittles","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-1885-500X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Xavier","family":"Didelot","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"175","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2016,5,11]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_3_5_2_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1128\/CMR.10.1.35"},{"key":"e_1_3_5_3_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(07)60566-2"},{"key":"e_1_3_5_4_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/BF03208570"},{"key":"e_1_3_5_5_2","volume-title":"Plague and the end of antiquity: the pandemic of 541\u2013750","author":"Little LK","year":"2007"},{"key":"e_1_3_5_6_2","volume-title":"The black death","author":"Ziegler P","year":"1998"},{"key":"e_1_3_5_7_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.95.21.12637"},{"key":"e_1_3_5_8_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.220225197"},{"key":"e_1_3_5_9_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1099\/mic.0.26885-0"},{"key":"e_1_3_5_10_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.ppat.1003349"},{"key":"e_1_3_5_11_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S1473-3099(13)70323-2"},{"key":"e_1_3_5_12_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pmed.0050003"},{"key":"e_1_3_5_13_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0002382"},{"key":"e_1_3_5_14_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0002680"},{"key":"e_1_3_5_15_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1001\/jama.283.17.2281"},{"key":"e_1_3_5_16_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0085374"},{"key":"e_1_3_5_17_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3201\/eid0809.010536"},{"key":"e_1_3_5_18_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1128\/AAC.00306-06"},{"key":"e_1_3_5_19_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0000309"},{"key":"e_1_3_5_20_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jinf.2012.09.010"},{"key":"e_1_3_5_21_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3201\/eid1605.091280"},{"key":"e_1_3_5_22_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S1473-3099(06)70438-8"},{"key":"e_1_3_5_23_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3201\/eid1305.061084"},{"key":"e_1_3_5_24_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3201\/eid2008.130629"},{"key":"e_1_3_5_25_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/jme\/tjv128"},{"key":"e_1_3_5_26_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(99)05163-6"},{"key":"e_1_3_5_27_2","volume-title":"A history of bubonic plague in the British Isles","author":"Shrewsbury JFD","year":"1970"},{"key":"e_1_3_5_28_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rspb.2000.1272"},{"key":"e_1_3_5_29_2","volume-title":"The history and antiquities of Eyam","author":"Wood W","year":"1859"},{"key":"e_1_3_5_30_2","volume-title":"A history of epidemics in Britain. 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