{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,15]],"date-time":"2026-10-15T20:43:13Z","timestamp":1792096993008,"version":"4.4.0"},"reference-count":46,"publisher":"The Royal Society","issue":"1894","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2019,1,16]],"date-time":"2019-01-16T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1547596800000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/royalsociety.org\/journals\/ethics-policies\/data-sharing-mining\/"}],"funder":[{"name":"Medical Research Council","award":["G1100796"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["G1100796"]}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100000925","name":"National Health and Medical Research Council","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100000925","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"crossref"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["royalsocietypublishing.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Proc. R. Soc. B."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2019,1,16]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>\n            The complex transmission ecologies of vector-borne and zoonotic diseases pose challenges to their control, especially in changing landscapes. Human incidence of zoonotic malaria (\n            <jats:italic>Plasmodium knowlesi<\/jats:italic>\n            ) is associated with deforestation although mechanisms are unknown. Here, a novel application of a method for predicting disease occurrence that combines machine learning and statistics is used to identify the key spatial scales that define the relationship between zoonotic malaria cases and environmental change. Using data from satellite imagery, a case\u2013control study, and a cross-sectional survey, predictive models of household-level occurrence of\n            <jats:italic>P. knowlesi<\/jats:italic>\n            were fitted with 16 variables summarized at 11 spatial scales simultaneously. The method identified a strong and well-defined peak of predictive influence of the proportion of cleared land within 1 km of households on\n            <jats:italic>P. knowlesi<\/jats:italic>\n            occurrence. Aspect (1 and 2 km), slope (0.5 km) and canopy regrowth (0.5 km) were important at small scales. By contrast, fragmentation of deforested areas influenced\n            <jats:italic>P. knowlesi<\/jats:italic>\n            occurrence probability most strongly at large scales (4 and 5 km). The identification of these spatial scales narrows the field of plausible mechanisms that connect land use change and\n            <jats:italic>P. knowlesi<\/jats:italic>\n            , allowing for the refinement of disease occurrence predictions and the design of spatially-targeted interventions.\n          <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1098\/rspb.2018.2351","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2019,1,16]],"date-time":"2019-01-16T08:11:08Z","timestamp":1547626268000},"page":"20182351","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1098\/crossmark-policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":57,"title":["Predictive analysis across spatial scales links zoonotic malaria to deforestation"],"prefix":"10.1098","volume":"286","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-1035-1619","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Patrick M.","family":"Brock","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, College of Medical, Veterinary and Life Sciences, University of Glasgow, Glasgow G61 1QH, UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5484-241X","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Kimberly M.","family":"Fornace","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London WC1E 7HT, UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Matthew J.","family":"Grigg","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Global and Tropical Health Division, Menzies School of Health Research and Charles Darwin University, Darwin, Northern Territory 0810, Australia"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Nicholas M.","family":"Anstey","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Global and Tropical Health Division, Menzies School of Health Research and Charles Darwin University, Darwin, Northern Territory 0810, Australia"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Timothy","family":"William","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Gleneagles Kota Kinabalu Hospital, 88100, Kota Kinabalu, Sabah, Malaysia"},{"name":"Infectious Diseases Society, Sabah-Menzies School of Health Research Clinical Research Unit, Kota Kinabalu 88560, Sabah, Malaysia"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jon","family":"Cox","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London WC1E 7HT, UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-4863-075X","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Chris J.","family":"Drakeley","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London WC1E 7HT, UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Heather M.","family":"Ferguson","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, College of Medical, Veterinary and Life Sciences, University of Glasgow, Glasgow G61 1QH, UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-0919-6401","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Rowland R.","family":"Kao","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, College of Medical, Veterinary and Life Sciences, University of Glasgow, Glasgow G61 1QH, UK"},{"name":"Royal (Dick) School of Veterinary Studies and Roslin Institute, University of Edinburgh, Easter Bush Campus, Roslin, Midlothian EH25 9RG, UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"175","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2019,1,16]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_3_6_2_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/nature15535"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_3_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/1475-2875-13-39"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_4_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rstb.2012.0250"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_5_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0003756"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_6_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.pt.2016.05.001"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_7_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0004915"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_8_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/srep29628"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_9_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/nature12060"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_10_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/trstmh\/trv050"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_11_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.7554\/eLife.15272"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_12_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.7554\/eLife.16412"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_13_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1501598112"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_14_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.7554\/eLife.22053"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_15_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3389\/fmicb.2016.01174"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_16_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/ele.12644"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_17_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1365-2656.2008.01390.x"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_18_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/trstmh\/trv113"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_19_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1146\/annurev-ecolsys-121415-032321"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_20_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/1476-072X-10-65"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_21_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.4081\/gh.2014.397"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_22_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1086\/605439"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_23_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0004135"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_24_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(04)15836-4"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_25_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/infdis\/jix091"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_26_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0002780"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_27_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1244693"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_28_2","volume-title":"Expert 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