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R. Soc. B."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2020,8,12]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>Temperature is widely known to influence the spatio-temporal dynamics of vector-borne disease transmission, particularly as temperatures vary across critical thermal thresholds. When temperature conditions exhibit such \u2018transcritical variation\u2019, abrupt spatial or temporal discontinuities may result, generating sharp geographical or seasonal boundaries in transmission. Here, we develop a spatio-temporal machine learning algorithm to examine the implications of transcritical variation for West Nile virus (WNV) transmission in the Los Angeles metropolitan area (LA). Analysing a large vector and WNV surveillance dataset spanning 2006\u20132016, we found that mean temperatures in the previous month strongly predicted the probability of WNV presence in pools of<jats:italic>Culex quinquefasciatus<\/jats:italic>mosquitoes, forming distinctive inhibitory (10.0\u201321.0\u00b0C) and favourable (22.7\u201330.2\u00b0C) mean temperature ranges that bound a narrow 1.7\u00b0C transitional zone (21\u201322.7\u00b0C). Temperatures during the most intense months of WNV transmission (August\/September) were more strongly associated with infection probability in<jats:italic>Cx. quinquefasciatus<\/jats:italic>pools in coastal LA, where temperature variation more frequently traversed the narrow transitional temperature range compared to warmer inland locations. This contributed to a pronounced expansion in the geographical distribution of human cases near the coast during warmer-than-average periods. Our findings suggest that transcritical variation may influence the sensitivity of transmission to climate warming, and that especially vulnerable locations may occur where present climatic fluctuations traverse critical temperature thresholds.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1098\/rspb.2020.1065","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2020,8,5]],"date-time":"2020-08-05T07:05:41Z","timestamp":1596611141000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1098\/crossmark-policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":12,"title":["Thermal thresholds heighten sensitivity of West Nile virus transmission to changing temperatures in coastal California"],"prefix":"10.1098","volume":"287","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5929-3966","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Nicholas K.","family":"Skaff","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Division of Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Qu","family":"Cheng","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Division of Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Rachel E. S.","family":"Clemesha","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92037, USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Philip A.","family":"Collender","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Division of Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Alexander","family":"Gershunov","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92037, USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Jennifer R.","family":"Head","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Division of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Christopher M.","family":"Hoover","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Division of Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Dennis P.","family":"Lettenmaier","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Geography, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90095, USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Jason R.","family":"Rohr","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Biological Sciences, Eck Institute for Global Health, and Environmental Change Initiative, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN 46556, USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Robert E.","family":"Snyder","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"California Department of Public Health, Vector-Borne Disease Section, Sacramento, CA 95814, USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-0223-4615","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Justin V.","family":"Remais","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Division of Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"175","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2020,8,5]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_3_6_2_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1001\/jama.1996.03530270057032"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_3_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1890\/08-0079.1"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_4_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1239401"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_5_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/ele.13335"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_6_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.12688\/wellcomeopenres.12928.1"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_7_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/1475-2875-10-183"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_8_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.0508929103"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_9_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.7554\/eLife.02130"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_10_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.4269\/ajtmh.2010.09-0648"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_11_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1521657113"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_12_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.4269\/ajtmh.2008.79.974"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_13_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3201\/eid2502.180765"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_14_2","unstructured":"Department of Public Health. 2019 WNV levels elevated in Los Angeles County. 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