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R. Soc. B."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2023,2,8]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>Vaccination has been critical to the decline in infectious disease prevalence in recent centuries. Nonetheless, vaccine refusal has increased in recent years, with complacency associated with reductions in disease prevalence highlighted as an important contributor. We exploit a natural experiment in Glasgow at the beginning of the twentieth century to investigate whether prior local experience of an infectious disease matters for vaccination decisions. Our study is based on smallpox surveillance data and administrative records of parental refusal to vaccinate their infants. We analyse variation between administrative units of Glasgow in cases and deaths from smallpox during two epidemics over the period 1900\u20131904, and vaccine refusal following its legalization in Scotland in 1907 after a long period of compulsory vaccination. We find that lower local disease incidence and mortality during the epidemics were associated with higher rates of subsequent vaccine refusal. This finding indicates that complacency influenced vaccination decisions in periods of higher infectious disease risk, responding to local prior experience of the relevant disease, and has not emerged solely in the context of the generally low levels of infectious disease risk of recent decades. These results suggest that vaccine delivery strategies may benefit from information on local variation in incidence.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1098\/rspb.2022.1986","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2023,2,1]],"date-time":"2023-02-01T03:09:54Z","timestamp":1675220994000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1098\/crossmark-policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":3,"title":["Local infectious disease experience influences vaccine refusal rates: a natural experiment"],"prefix":"10.1098","volume":"290","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-0702-3673","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Konstantinos","family":"Angelopoulos","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Economics, Adam Smith Business School, University of Glasgow, University Avenue, Glasgow G12 8QQ, UK"},{"name":"CESifo GmbH, Poschingerstrasse 5, 81679 Munich, Germany"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8789-6318","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Gillian","family":"Stewart","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"MRC\/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit, University of Glasgow, Clarice Pears Building, 90 Byres Road, Glasgow, G12 8TB"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-4667-9229","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Rebecca","family":"Mancy","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Biodiversity, One Health and Veterinary Medicine, University of Glasgow, University Avenue, Glasgow G12 8QQ, UK"},{"name":"MRC\/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit, University of Glasgow, Clarice Pears Building, 90 Byres Road, Glasgow, G12 8TB"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"175","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2023,2]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_3_6_2_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41586-019-1656-7"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_3_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S1473-3099(20)30130-4"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_4_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/d41586-019-03642-w"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_5_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/d41586-019-02232-0"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_6_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.vaccine.2015.09.035"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_7_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJMc1209037"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_8_2","volume-title":"Calling the shots: why parents reject vaccines","author":"Reich JA","year":"2016","unstructured":"Reich JA. 2016 Calling the shots: why parents reject vaccines. 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