{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,1]],"date-time":"2026-10-01T19:39:19Z","timestamp":1790883559587,"version":"4.1.0"},"reference-count":63,"publisher":"The Royal Society","issue":"2011","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2023,11,22]],"date-time":"2023-11-22T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1700611200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2023,11,22]],"date-time":"2023-11-22T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1700611200000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"name":"NSF\/BBSRC Ecology and Evolution of Infectious Diseases Program","award":["BB\/V003798\/1"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["BB\/V003798\/1"]}]},{"name":"NSF\/BBSRC Ecology and Evolution of Infectious Diseases Program","award":["DEB 2011069"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["DEB 2011069"]}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100010269","name":"Wellcome Trust","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","award":["217221\/Z\/19\/Z"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["217221\/Z\/19\/Z"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100010269","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"crossref"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["royalsocietypublishing.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Proc. R. Soc. B."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2023,11,29]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>Predicting the spatial occurrence of wildlife is a major challenge for ecology and management. In Latin America, limited knowledge of the number and locations of vampire bat roosts precludes informed allocation of measures intended to prevent rabies spillover to humans and livestock. We inferred the spatial distribution of vampire bat roosts while accounting for observation effort and environmental effects by fitting a log Gaussian Cox process model to the locations of 563 roosts in three regions of Peru. Our model explained 45% of the variance in the observed roost distribution and identified environmental drivers of roost establishment. When correcting for uneven observation effort, our model estimated a total of 2340 roosts, indicating that undetected roosts (76%) exceed known roosts (24%) by threefold. Predicted hotspots of undetected roosts in rabies-free areas revealed high-risk areas for future viral incursions. Using the predicted roost distribution to inform a spatial model of rabies spillover to livestock identified areas with disproportionate underreporting and indicated a higher rabies burden than previously recognized. We provide a transferrable approach to infer the distribution of a mostly unobserved bat reservoir that can inform strategies to prevent the re-emergence of an important zoonosis.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1098\/rspb.2023.1739","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2023,11,21]],"date-time":"2023-11-21T19:05:40Z","timestamp":1700593540000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1098\/crossmark-policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":9,"title":["Incorporating environmental heterogeneity and observation effort to predict host distribution and viral spillover from a bat reservoir"],"prefix":"10.1098","volume":"290","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-9976-3731","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Rita","family":"Ribeiro","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Biodiversity, One Health and Veterinary Medicine, College of Medical, Veterinary and Life Sciences, University of Glasgow, University Avenue, Graham Kerr Building, Glasgow G12 8QQ, UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3639-8172","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Jason","family":"Matthiopoulos","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Biodiversity, One Health and Veterinary Medicine, College of Medical, Veterinary and Life Sciences, University of Glasgow, University Avenue, Graham Kerr Building, Glasgow G12 8QQ, UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5833-2011","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Finn","family":"Lindgren","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Mathematics, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Carlos","family":"Tello","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"ILLARIY (Asociaci\u00f3n para el Desarrollo y Conservaci\u00f3n de los Recursos Naturales), Lima, Per\u00fa"},{"name":"Yunkawasi, Lima, Per\u00fa"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Carlos M.","family":"Zariquiey","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"ILLARIY (Asociaci\u00f3n para el Desarrollo y Conservaci\u00f3n de los Recursos Naturales), Lima, Per\u00fa"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-4626-1444","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"William","family":"Valderrama","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"ILLARIY (Asociaci\u00f3n para el Desarrollo y Conservaci\u00f3n de los Recursos Naturales), Lima, Per\u00fa"},{"name":"Facultad de Medicina Veterinaria y Zootecnia, Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Lima, Per\u00fa"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3933-1563","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Tonie E.","family":"Rocke","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"National Wildlife Health Center, US Geological Survey, Madison, Wisconsin, USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-7475-2705","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Daniel G.","family":"Streicker","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Biodiversity, One Health and Veterinary Medicine, College of Medical, Veterinary and Life Sciences, University of Glasgow, University Avenue, Graham Kerr Building, Glasgow G12 8QQ, UK"},{"name":"Medical Research Council\u2014University of Glasgow Centre for Virus Research, Glasgow, UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"175","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2023,11,22]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_3_8_2_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/nrmicro.2017.45"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_4_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3389\/fvets.2021.790701"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_5_2","first-page":"1","article-title":"Paiting maps with bats: species distribution modelling in bat research and conservation","volume":"27","author":"Razgour O","year":"2016","unstructured":"Razgour O, Rebelo H, Di Febbraro M, Russo D. 2016 Paiting maps with bats: species distribution modelling in bat research and conservation. Hystrix, Ital. J. Mammal. 27, 1-8. (doi:10.4404\/hystrix-27.1-11753)","journal-title":"Hystrix, Ital. J. Mammal."},{"key":"e_1_3_8_6_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/env.2446"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_7_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2021.100523"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_8_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/bij.12567"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_9_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/0309133312442522"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_10_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/2041-210X.13957"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_11_2","unstructured":"World Health Organization. 2018 WHO Expert Consultation on rabies third report. WHO Tech. Rep. Ser. Licence CC BY-NC-SA 3.0 IGO. 1012. Washington DC: World Health Organization."},{"key":"e_1_3_8_12_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3390\/v6051911"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_13_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rspb.2012.0538"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_14_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0006105"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_15_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/clinids\/10.Supplement_4.S707"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_16_2","first-page":"100","article-title":"Control of vampire bats by topical application of an anticoagulant, Chlorophacinone","volume":"6","author":"Linhart SB","year":"1972","unstructured":"Linhart SB, Crespo RF, Mitchell GC. 1972 Control of vampire bats by topical application of an anticoagulant, Chlorophacinone. Bolet\u00edn Sanit. Panam. 6, 100-109.","journal-title":". Bolet\u00edn Sanit. Panam."},{"key":"e_1_3_8_17_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.7589\/0090-3558-10.4.310"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_18_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1308817110"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_19_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/sciadv.add7437"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_20_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rspb.2016.0328"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_21_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3390\/v14112318"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_22_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1155\/2023\/2611577"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_23_2","first-page":"1","article-title":"Geographic distribution of Desmodus rotundus in Mexico under current and future climate change scenarios: implications for bovine paralytic rabies infection","volume":"4","author":"Zarza H","year":"2017","unstructured":"Zarza H, Mart\u00ednez-Meyer E, Suz\u00e1n G, Ceballos G. 2017 Geographic distribution of Desmodus rotundus in Mexico under current and future climate change scenarios: implications for bovine paralytic rabies infection. Vet. Mex. 4, 1-16. (doi:10.21753\/vmoa.4.3.390)","journal-title":"Vet. Mex."},{"key":"e_1_3_8_24_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0192887"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_25_2","first-page":"1","article-title":"Present and potential future distribution of common vampire bats in the Americas and the associated risk to cattle","volume":"7","author":"Lee DN","year":"2012","unstructured":"Lee DN, Pape\u015f M, van Den Bussche RA. 2012 Present and potential future distribution of common vampire bats in the Americas and the associated risk to cattle. PLoS ONE 7, 1-9. (doi:10.1371\/journal.pone.0042466)","journal-title":"PLoS ONE"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_26_2","unstructured":"Strimas-Mackey M. 2021 smoothr: Smooth and tidy spatial features. See https:\/\/strimas.com\/smoothr\/."},{"key":"e_1_3_8_27_2","volume-title":"R: a language and environment for statistical computing","author":"R Core Team","year":"2021","unstructured":"R Core Team. 2021 R: a language and environment for statistical computing. Vienna, Austria: R Foundation for Statistical Computing."},{"key":"e_1_3_8_28_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1089\/vbz.2020.2730"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_29_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3390\/pathogens11080942"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_30_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/3503895"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_31_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/clinids\/10.Supplement_4.S615"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_32_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s11135-017-0584-6"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_33_2","volume-title":"Species-Habitat associations: spatial data, predictive models, and ecological insights","author":"Matthiopoulos J","year":"2023","unstructured":"Matthiopoulos J, Fieberg J, Aarts G. 2023 Species-Habitat associations: spatial data, predictive models, and ecological insights, 2nd edn. University of Minnesota Libraries Publishing. Retrieved from the University of Minnesota Digital Conservancy. See http:\/\/hdl.handle.net\/11299\/217469.","edition":"2"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_34_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1214\/11-AOAS530"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_35_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1467-9868.2011.00777.x"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_36_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1201\/9780203492024"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_37_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/2041-210X.13168"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_38_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1467-9868.2008.00700.x"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_39_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1523-1739.2011.01656.x"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_40_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/nature25181"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_41_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.18637\/jss.v063.i19"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_42_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/01621459.2017.1415907"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_43_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/35090566"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_44_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/2041-210X.13107"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_45_2","first-page":"209","article-title":"R-squared measures for count data regression models with applications to health-care utilization","volume":"14","author":"Cameron AC","year":"1996","unstructured":"Cameron AC, Windmeijer FAG. 1996 R-squared measures for count data regression models with applications to health-care utilization. J. Bus. Econ. Stat. 14, 209-220. (doi:10.1080\/07350015.1996.10524648)","journal-title":"J. Bus. Econ. Stat."},{"key":"e_1_3_8_46_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rsos.160959"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_47_2","unstructured":"Castro A et al. 2021 Climas del Per\u00fa - Mapa de clasificaci\u00f3n clim\u00e1tica nacional. See https:\/\/www.gob.pe\/institucion\/senamhi\/informes-publicaciones\/2158106-climas-del-peru-mapa-de-clasificacion-climatica."},{"key":"e_1_3_8_48_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/1378876"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_49_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/1377361"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_50_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/2388857"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_51_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1890\/04-1619"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_52_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.biocon.2013.12.034"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_53_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1606587113"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_54_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1365-2435.2011.01933.x"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_55_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/icb\/icz007"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_56_2","first-page":"1","article-title":"Evolution of rabies in South America and inter-species dynamics (2009\u20132018)","volume":"6","author":"Meske M","year":"2021","unstructured":"Meske M, Fanelli A, Rocha F, Awada L, Soto PC, Mapitse N, Tizzani P. 2021 Evolution of rabies in South America and inter-species dynamics (2009\u20132018). Trop. Med. Infect. Dis. 6, 1-18. (doi:10.3390\/tropicalmed6020098)","journal-title":"Trop. Med. Infect. Dis."},{"key":"e_1_3_8_57_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/tbed.13512"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_58_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pbio.3001366"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_59_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/2388777"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_60_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0010699"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_61_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0002800"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_62_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1214\/17-AOAS1078"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_63_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1890\/03-3127"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_64_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Ribeiro R Matthiopoulos J Lindgren F Tello C Zariquiey CM Valderrama W Rocke TE Streicker DG. 2023 Code and data for manuscript: incorporating environmental heterogeneity and observation effort to predict host distribution and viral spillover from a bat reservoir. (Version 3) [Data set]. Zenodo. (doi:10.5281\/zenodo.10026623)","DOI":"10.1101\/2023.04.04.535562"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_65_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Ribeiro R Matthiopoulos J Lindgren F Tello C Zariquiey CM Valderrama W Rocke TE Streicker DG. 2023 Incorporating environmental heterogeneity and observation effort to predict host distribution and viral spillover from a bat reservoir. Figshare. (doi:10.6084\/m9.figshare.c.6922516)","DOI":"10.1101\/2023.04.04.535562"}],"container-title":["Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/royalsocietypublishing.org\/doi\/pdf\/10.1098\/rspb.2023.1739","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/royalsocietypublishing.org\/doi\/full-xml\/10.1098\/rspb.2023.1739","content-type":"application\/xml","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/royalsocietypublishing.org\/doi\/pdf\/10.1098\/rspb.2023.1739","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2024,1,9]],"date-time":"2024-01-09T04:41:21Z","timestamp":1704775281000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/royalsocietypublishing.org\/doi\/10.1098\/rspb.2023.1739"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2023,11,22]]},"references-count":63,"journal-issue":{"issue":"2011","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2023,11,29]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1098\/rspb.2023.1739"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1098\/rspb.2023.1739","relation":{"has-review":[{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.1098\/RSPB.2023.1739\/v1\/review2","asserted-by":"object"},{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.1098\/RSPB.2023.1739\/v1\/review1","asserted-by":"object"},{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.1098\/RSPB.2023.1739\/v2\/review1","asserted-by":"object"},{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.1098\/RSPB.2023.1739\/v2\/decision1","asserted-by":"object"},{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.1098\/RSPB.2023.1739\/v1\/decision1","asserted-by":"object"},{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.1098\/RSPB.2023.1739\/v3\/decision1","asserted-by":"object"}],"has-preprint":[{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.1101\/2023.04.04.535562","asserted-by":"object"}]},"ISSN":["0962-8452","1471-2954"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0962-8452","type":"print"},{"value":"1471-2954","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2023,11,22]]},"assertion":[{"value":"2023-03-08","order":0,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2023-10-30","order":1,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2023-11-22","order":2,"name":"published","label":"Published","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}}],"article-number":"20231739"}}