{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,5]],"date-time":"2026-05-05T12:26:48Z","timestamp":1777984008359,"version":"3.51.4"},"reference-count":56,"publisher":"The Royal Society","issue":"2067","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,3,18]],"date-time":"2026-03-18T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1773792000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,3,18]],"date-time":"2026-03-18T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1773792000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100000270","name":"Natural Environment Research Council","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100000270","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,3,18]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>Plague, the zoonotic vector-borne disease caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis, shows seasonal infection patterns across the Central Highlands of Madagascar. The disease persists within a complex ecological network involving host and vector species, all influenced by climate. Due to this complexity, links between climate, Y. pestis ecology and human infection remain incomplete. This study developed microclimate-based models to assess climatic impacts on growth cycles of plague vectors Xenopsylla cheopis and Synopsyllus fonquerniei. Using microclimatic modelling, the vector development index (VDI) was calculated to estimate annual developmental phases for each flea species. The uncorrected VDI suggested that development rates were highly variable for X. cheopis compared to S. fonquerniei, which shows greater temporal consistency. Elevated VDI slopes, representing an increased rate of vector development, correlated with plague cases across 61.8\u201314.7% of areas, implying possible climatic influence on vector-driven disease cycles. However, these associations were not maintained after adjusting modelled temperatures using limited field validation. These findings highlight the complex interactions between climate, vector dynamics and Y. pestis transmission, and emphasize the need for further investigation into burrow microclimates and their seasonal epidemiological roles.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1098\/rspb.2025.2496","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,3,18]],"date-time":"2026-03-18T15:26:29Z","timestamp":1773847589000},"source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Integrating microclimate to understand vector development and disease patterns: challenges and lessons from plague in Madagascar\u2019s Central Highlands"],"prefix":"10.1098","volume":"293","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-6009-4270","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Henry Gillies","family":"Fell","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"University of Nottingham 1 , ,","place":["Nottingham, UK"],"department":["School of Geography"]},{"name":"University of York 2 , ,","place":["York, UK"],"department":["BioArCh, Department of Archaeology"]}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Joseph","family":"Bailey","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Anglia Ruskin University\u2014Cambridge Campus 3 , ,","place":["Cambridge, UK"],"department":["Department of Biology"]}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Fanohinjanaharinirina","family":"Rasoamalala","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institut Pasteur de Madagascar 4 , ,","place":["Antananarivo, Madagascar"],"department":["Plague Unit"]},{"name":"University of Antananarivo 5 , ,","place":["Antananarivo, Madagascar"],"department":["Faculty of Sciences"]}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Beza","family":"Ramasindrazana","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institut Pasteur de Madagascar 4 , ,","place":["Antananarivo, Madagascar"],"department":["Plague Unit"]}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-1521-8670","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Luke","family":"Shipley","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"University of Nottingham 6 , ,","place":["Nottingham, UK"],"department":["Biodiscovery Institute"]}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-8116-5568","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Matthew","family":"Jones","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"University of Nottingham 1 , ,","place":["Nottingham, UK"],"department":["School of Geography"]}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Voahangy","family":"Andrianaivoarimanana","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"University of Nottingham 6 , ,","place":["Nottingham, UK"],"department":["Biodiscovery Institute"]}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Katharina","family":"Kreppel","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute of Tropical Medicine 7 , , ,","place":["Antwerp, Flanders, Belgium"],"department":["Department of Public Health"]}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-1591-5399","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Nils Christian","family":"Stenseth","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"University of Oslo 8 , ,","place":["Oslo, Norway"],"department":["The Centre for Pandemics and One-Health Research, Sustainable Health Unit, Institute of Health and Society, Faculty of Medicine"]},{"name":"University of Oslo 9 , ,","place":["Oslo, Norway"],"department":["Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES), Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences"]},{"name":"Tsinghua University 10 , ,","place":["Beijing, People's Republic of China"],"department":["Vanke School of Public Health"]}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-8030-9136","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Ilya M. D.","family":"Maclean","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"University of Exeter 11 , ,","place":["Exeter, UK"],"department":["Environment and Sustainability Institute"]}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Minoarisoa","family":"Rajerison","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institut Pasteur de Madagascar 4 , ,","place":["Antananarivo, Madagascar"],"department":["Plague Unit"]}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-8095-0097","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Adam C.","family":"Algar","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Lakehead University 12 , ,","place":["Ontario, Canada"],"department":["Department of Biology"]}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Steve","family":"Atkinson","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"University of Nottingham 6 , ,","place":["Nottingham, UK"],"department":["Biodiscovery Institute"]}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"175","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,3,18]]},"reference":[{"key":"2026031811262038500_R1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pmed.0050003","article-title":"Plague: past, present, and future","volume":"5","author":"Stenseth","year":"2008","journal-title":"PLoS Med."},{"key":"2026031811262038500_R2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"319","DOI":"10.1016\/S0169-5347(00)89118-1","article-title":"Emerging infectious disease: what are the relative roles of ecology and evolution?","volume":"10","author":"Schrag","year":"1995","journal-title":"Trends Ecol. Evol."},{"key":"2026031811262038500_R3","first-page":"89","article-title":"Plague around the world, 2010\u20132015\/La peste a travers le monde: 2010\u20132015","volume":"91","author":"Bertherat","year":"2016","journal-title":"Weekly Epidemiol. Record"},{"key":"2026031811262038500_R4","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"101","DOI":"10.3201\/eid0401.980114","article-title":"Plague, a reemerging disease in Madagascar","volume":"4","author":"Chanteau","year":"1998","journal-title":"Emerg. Infect. Dis."},{"key":"2026031811262038500_R5","article-title":"Factors influencing the re-emergence of plague in Madagascar","volume":"4","author":"Alderson","year":"2020","journal-title":"Emerg. Top. 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Entomol."},{"key":"2026031811262038500_R8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"34","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ecolmodel.2016.09.023","article-title":"Cross-scale modeling of a vector-borne disease, from the individual to the metapopulation: the seasonal dynamics of sylvatic plague in Kazakhstan","volume":"342","author":"Laperri\u00e8re","year":"2016","journal-title":"Ecol. Model."},{"key":"2026031811262038500_R9","first-page":"89","article-title":"Epidemiologie de la peste a Madagascar","volume":"26","author":"Brygoo","year":"1966","journal-title":"Med. Trop. 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Dis."},{"key":"2026031811262038500_R13","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1228","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1365-3156.2006.01677.x","article-title":"Epidemiological trends for human plague in Madagascar during the second half of the 20th century: a survey of 20,900 notified cases","volume":"11","author":"Migliani","year":"2006","journal-title":"Trop. Med. Int. Health"},{"key":"2026031811262038500_R14","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0006072","article-title":"The Asian house shrew Suncus murinus as a reservoir and source of human outbreaks of plague in Madagascar","volume":"11","author":"Rahelinirina","year":"2017","journal-title":"PLoS Neglected Trop. Dis."},{"key":"2026031811262038500_R15","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"439","DOI":"10.1007\/0-306-48416-1_87","volume-title":"The Genus Yersinia. Advances in Experimental Medicine and Biology","author":"Rahalison","year":"2004"},{"key":"2026031811262038500_R16","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0002382","article-title":"Understanding the persistence of plague foci in Madagascar","volume":"7","author":"Andrianaivoarimanana","year":"2013","journal-title":"PLoS Neglected Trop. Dis."},{"key":"2026031811262038500_R17","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1128\/CMR.00044-19","article-title":"Yersinia pestis: the natural history of Plague","volume":"34","author":"Barbieri","year":"2020","journal-title":"Clin. Microbiol. Rev."},{"key":"2026031811262038500_R18","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"13110","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.0602447103","article-title":"Plague dynamics are driven by climate variation","volume":"103","author":"Stenseth","year":"2006","journal-title":"Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. 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PhD thesis, University of Liverpool. https:\/\/livrepository.liverpool.ac.uk\/id\/eprint\/3174073."},{"key":"2026031811262038500_R26","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"581","DOI":"10.1098\/rstb.1949.0004","article-title":"Effects of constant temperature and humidity on the development of the larvae and the pupae of the three Indian species of Xenopsylla (Insecta: Siphonaptera)","volume":"233","author":"Sharif","year":"1949","journal-title":"Phil. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. B"},{"key":"2026031811262038500_R27","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"672","DOI":"10.1111\/geb.13453","article-title":"Biotic factors limit the invasion of the plague pathogen (Yersinia pestis) in novel geographical settings","volume":"31","author":"Fell","year":"2022","journal-title":"Glob. Ecol. 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Meteorol."},{"key":"2026031811262038500_R30","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"664","DOI":"10.1111\/ecog.02360","article-title":"NicheMapR \u2013 an R package for biophysical modelling: the microclimate model","volume":"40","author":"Kearney","year":"2017","journal-title":"Ecography"},{"key":"2026031811262038500_R31","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"280","DOI":"10.1111\/2041-210X.13093","article-title":"Microclima: an R package for modelling meso- and microclimate","volume":"10","author":"Maclean","year":"2019","journal-title":"Methods Ecol. Evol."},{"key":"2026031811262038500_R32","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"8175","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-017-08514-9","article-title":"Microclimatic temperatures increase the potential for vector-borne disease transmission in the Scandinavian climate","volume":"7","author":"Haider","year":"2017","journal-title":"Sci. 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Entomol."},{"key":"2026031811262038500_R49","first-page":"31","article-title":"Donn\u00e9es faunistiques et \u00e9cologiques sur les puces de Madagascar (Siphonaptera)","volume":"4","author":"Klein","year":"1966","journal-title":"Cahiers ORSTOM Entomologie M\u00e9dicale"},{"key":"2026031811262038500_R50","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"736","DOI":"10.4269\/ajtmh.2010.10-0042","article-title":"Range-wide determinants of plague distribution in North America","volume":"83","author":"Maher","year":"2010","journal-title":"Am. J. Trop. Med. Hyg."},{"key":"2026031811262038500_R51","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"37","DOI":"10.1111\/1749-4877.12944","article-title":"Plague in small mammals from an endemic focus of the malagasy central highlands: a longitudinal survey with a special reference on black rats (Rattus rattus)","volume":"21","author":"Parany","year":"2026","journal-title":"Integr. Zool."},{"key":"2026031811262038500_R52","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"776","DOI":"10.4269\/ajtmh.14-0504","article-title":"Effects of land use on plague (Yersinia pestis) activity in rodents in Tanzania","volume":"92","author":"McCauley","year":"2015","journal-title":"Am. J. Trop. Med. Hyg."},{"key":"2026031811262038500_R53","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"371","DOI":"10.1002\/ps.3346","article-title":"Population dynamics and breeding patterns of multimammate mouse, Mastomys natalensis (Smith 1834), in irrigated rice fields in eastern Tanzania","volume":"69","author":"Mulungu","year":"2013","journal-title":"Pest Manag. Sci."},{"key":"2026031811262038500_R54","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"820","DOI":"10.1111\/1749-4877.12511","article-title":"Plague reservoir species throughout the world","volume":"16","author":"Mahmoudi","year":"2020","journal-title":"Integr. 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