{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,5]],"date-time":"2026-05-05T12:26:48Z","timestamp":1777984008486,"version":"3.51.4"},"reference-count":48,"publisher":"The Royal Society","issue":"2065","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,18]],"date-time":"2026-02-18T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1771372800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,18]],"date-time":"2026-02-18T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1771372800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,18]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>Newcastle disease virus (NDV) is a virulent poultry pathogen with global circulation. Several vaccines reduce individual disease burden, including the attenuated, thermotolerant, avirulent, live-virus I-2 vaccine, but estimates of the population-scale impact of such vaccines in natural transmission settings are still lacking. Here, we leverage a unique 8 year dataset of poultry mortality from village settings in Madagascar, spanning pre-vaccination and vaccination periods with the I-2 vaccine, and fit a compartmental transmission model to characterize transmission and impact of vaccination. Pre-vaccination, the basic reproduction number, or number of new infections per infected individual in a completely susceptible population, is estimated to be R0=1.41 [s.d. = 0.45] and the mean herd immunity threshold for local elimination is estimated to be \u03b7=25% [s.d. = 17%]. We estimate that the protective effectiveness of the I-2 vaccine in preventing viral shedding under village conditions was 83% (95% confidence interval [28%, 95%]). We also simulated counterfactual trajectories of no vaccine deployment versus true vaccine coverage levels in villages, estimating that 90 infections of NDV were averted per month (60% reduction compared with baseline number of infections) due to the vaccination campaign. Additionally, we report descriptive statistics on the ownership and epidemiology of backyard poultry populations. Our results provide a foundation to delineate prospects of vaccination campaigns for local elimination to promote nutritional and economic sustainability in smallholder poultry farms.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1098\/rspb.2025.2630","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,18]],"date-time":"2026-02-18T00:13:32Z","timestamp":1771373612000},"source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Characterizing Newcastle disease virus transmission dynamics and the impact of vaccination in village settings"],"prefix":"10.1098","volume":"293","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-7842-1364","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Justin","family":"Sheen","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Princeton University 1 , , ,","place":["Princeton, NJ, USA"],"department":["Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology"]},{"name":"Harvard T H Chan School of Public Health 2 , , ,","place":["Boston, MA, USA"],"department":["Department of Global Health and Population"]}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-4378-5050","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Maximilian M","family":"Nguyen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Princeton University 1 , , ,","place":["Princeton, NJ, USA"],"department":["Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology"]}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-5253-0036","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"M Ando","family":"Ravelomanantsoa","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institut Malgache des Vaccins V\u00e9t\u00e9rinaires (IMVAVET) 3 , ,","place":["Antananarivo, Madagascar"],"department":["Departement Production et Partenariat"]},{"name":"Madagascar Health and Environmental Research (MAHERY) 4 , ,","place":["Maroantsetra, Madagascar"]}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Hervet J","family":"Randriamady","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Madagascar Health and Environmental Research (MAHERY) 4 , ,","place":["Maroantsetra, Madagascar"]},{"name":"Harvard T H Chan School of Public Health 5 , , ,","place":["Boston, MA, USA"],"department":["Department of Nutrition"]}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Kaliana","family":"Andriamananjara-Cunderlik","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Macalester College 6 , , ,","place":["Saint Paul, MN, USA"]}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"C Jessica E","family":"Metcalf","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Princeton University 1 , , ,","place":["Princeton, NJ, USA"],"department":["Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology"]},{"name":"Princeton University 7 , , ,","place":["Princeton, NJ, USA"],"department":["School of Public and International Affairs"]}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Christopher D","family":"Golden","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Madagascar Health and Environmental Research (MAHERY) 4 , ,","place":["Maroantsetra, Madagascar"]},{"name":"Harvard T H Chan School of Public Health 5 , , ,","place":["Boston, MA, USA"],"department":["Department of Nutrition"]},{"name":"Harvard T H Chan School of Public Health 8 , , ,","place":["Boston, MA, USA"],"department":["Department of Environmental Health"]}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"175","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,18]]},"reference":[{"key":"2026021719132885000_R1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"71","DOI":"10.1016\/j.virusres.2014.02.016","article-title":"Newcastle disease virus: current status and our understanding","volume":"184","author":"Ganar","year":"2014","journal-title":"Virus Res."},{"key":"2026021719132885000_R2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"5","DOI":"10.1080\/713655022","article-title":"Newcastle disease","volume":"42","author":"Alexander","year":"2001","journal-title":"Br. Poult. Sci."},{"key":"2026021719132885000_R3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"60","DOI":"10.1016\/j.onehlt.2015.10.002","article-title":"Modeling the burden of poultry disease on the rural poor in Madagascar","volume":"1","author":"Rist","year":"2015","journal-title":"One Health"},{"key":"2026021719132885000_R4","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.3389\/fvets.2019.00305","article-title":"Modeling the impact of Newcastle disease virus vaccinations on chicken production systems in northeastern Madagascar","volume":"6","author":"Annapragada","year":"2019","journal-title":"Front. Vet. Sci."},{"key":"2026021719132885000_R5","first-page":"42","article-title":"Field trial of Malaysian thermostable Newcastle disease vaccine in village chickens in Kaduna state, Nigeria","volume":"7","author":"Nwanta","year":"2008","journal-title":"Sokoto J. Vet. Sci."},{"key":"2026021719132885000_R6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"205","DOI":"10.1016\/S0167-5877(97)00065-2","article-title":"Vietnamese trials with a thermostable Newcastle disease vaccine (strain I2) in experimental and village chickens","volume":"34","author":"Tu","year":"1998","journal-title":"Prev. Vet. Med."},{"key":"2026021719132885000_R7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"131","DOI":"10.1016\/S0378-1135(99)00069-3","article-title":"Newcastle disease virus strain I2--a prospective thermostable vaccine for use in developing countries","volume":"68","author":"Bensink","year":"1999","journal-title":"Vet. Microbiol."},{"key":"2026021719132885000_R8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"76","DOI":"10.12688\/gatesopenres.13212.3","article-title":"Newcastle disease vaccine virus I-2 fails to acquire virulence during repeated passage in vivo","volume":"5","author":"Bisschop","year":"2021","journal-title":"Gates Open Res."},{"key":"2026021719132885000_R9","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"253","DOI":"10.1007\/s11250-009-9414-8","article-title":"Implementing poultry vaccination and biosecurity at the village level in Tanzania: a social strategy to promote health in free-range poultry populations","volume":"42","author":"Msoffe","year":"2010","journal-title":"Trop. Anim. Health Prod."},{"key":"2026021719132885000_R10","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"17","DOI":"10.1016\/j.prevetmed.2009.04.007","article-title":"Evaluation of strategies to improve village chicken production-controlled field trials to assess effects of Newcastle disease vaccination and altered chick rearing in Myanmar","volume":"90","author":"Henning","year":"2009","journal-title":"Prev. Vet. Med."},{"key":"2026021719132885000_R11","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"753","DOI":"10.1016\/j.it.2015.10.004","article-title":"Understanding herd immunity","volume":"36","author":"Metcalf","year":"2015","journal-title":"Trends Immunol."},{"key":"2026021719132885000_R12","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"27","DOI":"10.1080\/03079450094243","article-title":"Oral Newcastle disease vaccination trials in Ethiopia","volume":"29","author":"Nasser","year":"2000","journal-title":"Avian Pathol."},{"key":"2026021719132885000_R13","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1080\/03079450701772391","article-title":"Herd immunity to Newcastle disease virus in poultry by vaccination","volume":"37","author":"van Boven","year":"2008","journal-title":"Avian Pathol."},{"key":"2026021719132885000_R14","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"17","DOI":"10.1016\/j.vetmic.2012.05.003","article-title":"Newcastle disease virus outbreaks: vaccine mismatch or inadequate application?","volume":"160","author":"Dortmans","year":"2012","journal-title":"Vet. Microbiol."},{"key":"2026021719132885000_R15","first-page":"80","volume-title":"Immunization: vaccine adjuvant delivery system and strategies","author":"Sharif","year":"2018"},{"key":"2026021719132885000_R16","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"136","DOI":"10.1016\/j.biologicals.2014.11.003","article-title":"Development of an improved vaccine evaluation protocol to compare the efficacy of Newcastle disease vaccines","volume":"43","author":"Cardenas-Garcia","year":"2015","journal-title":"Biologicals"},{"key":"2026021719132885000_R17","first-page":"244","article-title":"Evaluation of I2 thermostable newcastle disease vaccine on local chickens in selected districts of western Amhara","volume":"2","author":"Nega","year":"2012","journal-title":"Online J. Anim. Feed Res."},{"key":"2026021719132885000_R18","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1155\/2019\/3024965","article-title":"Application of optimal control theory to Newcastle disease dynamics in village chicken by considering wild birds as reservoir of disease virus","volume":"2019","author":"Chuma","year":"2019","journal-title":"J. Appl. Math."},{"key":"2026021719132885000_R19","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"81","DOI":"10.48185\/jmam.v5i2.1127","article-title":"Modeling the impact of vaccination on Newcastle disease dynamics in caged chickens","volume":"5","author":"Kigodi","year":"2024","journal-title":"J. Math. Anal. Model."},{"key":"2026021719132885000_R20","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"215","DOI":"10.1504\/IJCSM.2019.10022401","article-title":"An eco-epidemiological model for Newcastle disease in central zone Tanzania","volume":"10","author":"Hugo","year":"2019","journal-title":"Int. J. Comput. Sci. Math."},{"key":"2026021719132885000_R21","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.3390\/vaccines8040614","article-title":"A herpesvirus of turkey-based vector vaccine reduces transmission of Newcastle disease virus in commercial broiler chickens with maternally derived antibodies","volume":"8","author":"Tat\u00e1r-Kis","year":"2020","journal-title":"Vaccines"},{"key":"2026021719132885000_R22","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"126","DOI":"10.1016\/j.vetmic.2016.12.019","article-title":"Newcastle disease vaccines\u2014a solved problem or a continuous challenge?","volume":"206","author":"Dimitrov","year":"2017","journal-title":"Vet. Microbiol."},{"key":"2026021719132885000_R23","article-title":"Data, analyses, and plots to characterize Newcastle disease virus transmission and impact of I-2 vaccination. Zenodo","author":"Sheen","year":"2025"},{"key":"2026021719132885000_R24","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"386","DOI":"10.1017\/S0030605309000131","article-title":"Bushmeat hunting and use in the Makira Forest, north-eastern Madagascar: a conservation and livelihoods issue","volume":"43","author":"Golden","year":"2009","journal-title":"Oryx"},{"key":"2026021719132885000_R25","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"289","DOI":"10.1111\/j.2517-6161.1995.tb02031.x","article-title":"Controlling the false discovery rate: a practical and powerful approach to multiple testing","volume":"57","author":"Benjamini","year":"1995","journal-title":"J. R. Stat. Soc. Series B"},{"key":"2026021719132885000_R26","unstructured":"R Core Team\n          . 2013R: a language and environment for statistical computing, Vienna, Austria: R Foundation for Statistical Computing. Seehttps:\/\/www.R-project.org\/."},{"key":"2026021719132885000_R27","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"39","DOI":"10.1637\/8407-071208-Reg.1","article-title":"Comparison of viral shedding following vaccination with inactivated and live Newcastle disease vaccines formulated with wild-type and recombinant viruses","volume":"53","author":"Miller","year":"2009","journal-title":"Avian Dis."},{"key":"2026021719132885000_R28","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"441","DOI":"10.4172\/2157-7579.1000441","article-title":"Review on newcastle disease of poultry and its public health importance","volume":"8","author":"Abdisa","year":"2017","journal-title":"J. Vet. Sci. Technol."},{"key":"2026021719132885000_R29","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1186\/s12917-018-1355-x","article-title":"Evaluation of spray and oral delivery of Newcastle disease I2 vaccine in chicken reared by smallholder farmers in central Ethiopia","volume":"14","author":"Mebrahtu","year":"2018","journal-title":"BMC Vet. Res."},{"key":"2026021719132885000_R30","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"245","DOI":"10.1637\/11555-120816-ResNote.1","article-title":"Repeated challenge with virulent Newcastle disease virus does not decrease the efficacy of vaccines","volume":"61","author":"Taylor","year":"2017","journal-title":"Avian Dis."},{"key":"2026021719132885000_R31","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1715","DOI":"10.1128\/JCM.02818-14","article-title":"Presence of virulent Newcastle disease virus in vaccinated chickens in farms in Pakistan","volume":"53","author":"Rehmani","year":"2015","journal-title":"J. Clin. Microbiol."},{"key":"2026021719132885000_R32","first-page":"1","article-title":"A review of virulent Newcastle disease viruses in the United States and the role of wild birds in viral persistence and spread","volume":"48","author":"Brown","year":"2017","journal-title":"Vet. Res."},{"key":"2026021719132885000_R33","first-page":"46","article-title":"Vaccination with newcastle disease vaccines strain i2 and lasota in commercial and local chickens in Plateau State Nigeria","volume":"31","author":"Musa","year":"2010","journal-title":"Nig. Vet. J."},{"key":"2026021719132885000_R34","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"11069","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1818433116","article-title":"Decreasing measles burden by optimizing campaign timing","volume":"116","author":"Thakkar","year":"2019","journal-title":"Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA"},{"key":"2026021719132885000_R35","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"865","DOI":"10.1093\/aje\/kwu209","article-title":"Serial intervals of respiratory infectious diseases: a systematic review and analysis","volume":"180","author":"Vink","year":"2014","journal-title":"Am. J. Epidemiol."},{"key":"2026021719132885000_R36","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.18637\/jss.v069.i12","article-title":"Statistical inference for partially observed Markov processes via the R package pomp","volume":"69","author":"King","year":"2016","journal-title":"J. Stat. Software"},{"key":"2026021719132885000_R37","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0004761","article-title":"Challenges in real-time prediction of infectious disease: a case study of dengue in Thailand","volume":"10","author":"Reich","year":"2016","journal-title":"PLoS Negl. Trop. Dis."},{"key":"2026021719132885000_R38","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.2403808121","article-title":"Modeling the population-level impact of a third dose of MMR vaccine on a mumps outbreak at the University of Iowa","volume":"121","author":"Park","year":"2024","journal-title":"Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA"},{"key":"2026021719132885000_R39","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"420","DOI":"10.1080\/03079457.2014.951832","article-title":"Effect of vaccination on transmission characteristics of highly virulent Newcastle disease virus in experimentally infected chickens","volume":"43","author":"Fentie","year":"2014","journal-title":"Avian Pathol."},{"key":"2026021719132885000_R40","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1155\/2024\/5597050","article-title":"Spatiotemporal patterns and risk factors for Newcastle disease virus among chickens in a Tanzania live bird market","volume":"2024","author":"Tsaxra","year":"2024","journal-title":"Transbound. Emerg. Dis."},{"key":"2026021719132885000_R41","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"405","DOI":"10.1080\/03079459408419012","article-title":"The epidemiology of Newcastle disease in rural poultry: a review","volume":"23","author":"Awan","year":"1994","journal-title":"Avian Pathol."},{"key":"2026021719132885000_R42","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"505","DOI":"10.1016\/j.dci.2013.06.007","article-title":"Effects of Newcastle disease virus vaccine antibodies on the shedding and transmission of challenge viruses","volume":"41","author":"Miller","year":"2013","journal-title":"Dev. Comp. Immunol."},{"key":"2026021719132885000_R43","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0013987","article-title":"Newcastle disease virus in Madagascar: identification of an original genotype possibly deriving from a died out ancestor of genotype IV","volume":"5","author":"Maminiaina","year":"2010","journal-title":"PLoS ONE"},{"key":"2026021719132885000_R44","first-page":"1","article-title":"Serological response and protection level evaluation in chickens exposed to grains coated with I2 Newcastle disease virus for effective oral vaccination of village chickens","volume":"12","author":"Abdi","year":"2016","journal-title":"BMC Vet. Res."},{"key":"2026021719132885000_R45","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.3390\/v13010103","article-title":"Surveillance and genetic characterization of virulent Newcastle disease virus subgenotype V.3 in indigenous chickens from backyard poultry farms and live bird markets in Kenya","volume":"13","author":"Kariithi","year":"2021","journal-title":"Viruses"},{"key":"2026021719132885000_R46","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"321","DOI":"10.1016\/j.prevetmed.2015.03.021","article-title":"Understanding the poultry trade network in Kenya: implications for regional disease prevention and control","volume":"120","author":"McCarron","year":"2015","journal-title":"Prev. Vet. Med."},{"key":"2026021719132885000_R47","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1409","DOI":"10.1126\/science.adj5918","article-title":"Unlock the potential of vaccines in food-producing animals","volume":"384","author":"Laxminarayan","year":"2024","journal-title":"Science"},{"key":"2026021719132885000_R48","article-title":"Supplementary material from: Characterizing Newcastle disease virus transmission dynamics and the impact of vaccination in village settings. Figshare.","author":"Sheen","year":"2025"}],"container-title":["Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/royalsocietypublishing.org\/rspb\/article-pdf\/doi\/10.1098\/rspb.2025.2630\/6111183\/rspb.2025.2630.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"syndication"},{"URL":"https:\/\/royalsocietypublishing.org\/rspb\/article-pdf\/doi\/10.1098\/rspb.2025.2630\/6111183\/rspb.2025.2630.pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,18]],"date-time":"2026-02-18T00:13:40Z","timestamp":1771373620000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/royalsocietypublishing.org\/rspb\/article\/293\/2065\/20252630\/480365\/Characterizing-Newcastle-disease-virus"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,18]]},"references-count":48,"journal-issue":{"issue":"2065","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,18]]}},"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1098\/rspb.2025.2630","relation":{"has-review":[{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.1098\/RSPB.2025.2630\/v4\/decision1","asserted-by":"object"},{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.1098\/RSPB.2025.2630\/v4\/response1","asserted-by":"object"},{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.1098\/RSPB.2025.2630\/v3\/response1","asserted-by":"object"},{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.1098\/RSPB.2025.2630\/v2\/response1","asserted-by":"object"},{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.1098\/RSPB.2025.2630\/v1\/review2","asserted-by":"object"},{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.1098\/RSPB.2025.2630\/v1\/review1","asserted-by":"object"},{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.1098\/RSPB.2025.2630\/v2\/decision1","asserted-by":"object"},{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.1098\/RSPB.2025.2630\/v1\/review3","asserted-by":"object"},{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.1098\/RSPB.2025.2630\/v1\/decision1","asserted-by":"object"},{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.1098\/RSPB.2025.2630\/v2\/review2","asserted-by":"object"},{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.1098\/RSPB.2025.2630\/v2\/review1","asserted-by":"object"},{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.1098\/RSPB.2025.2630\/v3\/decision1","asserted-by":"object"}]},"ISSN":["1471-2954"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1471-2954","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,18]]},"article-number":"20252630"}}