{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,19]],"date-time":"2026-10-19T09:44:55Z","timestamp":1792403095253,"version":"4.4.0"},"reference-count":61,"publisher":"The Royal Society","issue":"2080","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,14]],"date-time":"2026-10-14T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1791936000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":7,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100004562","name":"French Ministry of Higher Education and Research","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100004562","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100004794","name":"CNRS","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100004794","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,7]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>Localized perturbations may affect spatially structured populations (SSPs) as a whole by altering dispersal between patches. Yet, such large-scale consequences remain poorly understood and may depend on the proportion of the SSP affected by the perturbation. Here, we used correlative analyses and integrated population models to investigate the impact of pond draining\u2014localized perturbations of breeding site availability\u2014on the structure and demographics of an SSP of black-headed gulls (Chroicocephalus ridibundus). Pond draining regularly affected patches occupied by colonies, reducing the occupancy probability of those patches in subsequent years, but causing no visible changes in population growth or structure as breeders relocated to unperturbed patches. However, the draining of the pond occupied by the largest colony in the system (64% of total breeders) triggered the immediate emigration of over 60% of breeders outside the SSP, with no subsequent recovery. In the following years, apparent survival showed increased interannual variability, suggesting greater sensitivity of the SSP to the perturbation of smaller colonies. Dispersal between colonies also became more uniform, reflecting the homogenization of colony sizes after the emigration event in a context of informed dispersal. Considering perturbation magnitude and dispersal mechanisms appears essential for understanding the response and resilience of SSPs to local perturbations.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1098\/rspb.2026.0388","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,14]],"date-time":"2026-10-14T00:20:29Z","timestamp":1791937229000},"source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Change in the demographic dynamics of a spatially structured population of a colonial waterbird after a perturbation affecting a large colony"],"prefix":"10.1098","volume":"293","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-0316-5041","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Killian A.","family":"Gregory","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"CEFE, Univ Montpellier, CNRS, EPHE, IRD 1 , Montpellier, France"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Odin","family":"Rumianowski","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"CEFE, Univ Montpellier, CNRS, EPHE, IRD 1 , Montpellier, France"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jean-Dominique","family":"Lebreton","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"CEFE, Univ Montpellier, CNRS, EPHE, IRD 1 , Montpellier, France"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Pierre-Andr\u00e9","family":"Crochet","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"CEFE, Univ Montpellier, CNRS, EPHE, IRD 1 , Montpellier, France"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Aurelien","family":"Besnard","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"CEFE, Univ Montpellier, CNRS, EPHE-PSL University, IRD 2 , Montpellier, France"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"175","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,14]]},"reference":[{"key":"2026101905165805900_RSPB20260388C1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1093\/oso\/9780198849834.001.0001","volume-title":"Perturbation, behavioural feedbacks, and population dynamics in social animals: when to leave and where to go","author":"Oro","year":"2020"},{"key":"2026101905165805900_RSPB20260388C2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1020","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1365-2656.2008.01422.x","article-title":"The demographic impact of extreme events: stochastic weather drives survival and population dynamics in a long-lived seabird","volume":"77","author":"Frederiksen","year":"2008","journal-title":"J. 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Lett."},{"key":"2026101905165805900_RSPB20260388C4","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"438","DOI":"10.1007\/s004420050746","article-title":"Food availability and nest predation influence life history traits in Audouin's gull, Larus audouinii","volume":"118","author":"Oro","year":"1999","journal-title":"Oecologia"},{"key":"2026101905165805900_RSPB20260388C5","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"63","DOI":"10.1007\/978-1-4757-9921-7_3","volume-title":"Current ornithology","author":"G\u00f6tmark","year":"1992"},{"key":"2026101905165805900_RSPB20260388C6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1971","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-018-20333-0","article-title":"Predator arrival elicits differential dispersal, change in age structure and reproductive performance in a prey population","volume":"8","author":"Payo-Payo","year":"2018","journal-title":"Sci. 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Appl."},{"key":"2026101905165805900_RSPB20260388C27","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"555","DOI":"10.1890\/09-2339.1","article-title":"Studying the reproductive skipping behavior in long-lived birds by adding nest inspection to individual-based data","volume":"21","author":"Sanz-Aguilar","year":"2011","journal-title":"Ecol. Appl."},{"key":"2026101905165805900_RSPB20260388C28","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"538","DOI":"10.1098\/rsbl.2008.0291","article-title":"Public information affects breeding dispersal in a colonial bird: kittiwakes cue on neighbours","volume":"4","author":"Boulinier","year":"2008","journal-title":"Biol. Lett."},{"key":"2026101905165805900_RSPB20260388C29","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"12\u202f690\u201312\u202f699","DOI":"10.1002\/ece3.6922","article-title":"A review of conspecific attraction for habitat selection across taxa","volume":"10","author":"Buxton","year":"2020","journal-title":"Ecol. Evol."},{"key":"2026101905165805900_RSPB20260388C30","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"377","DOI":"10.2307\/3545775","article-title":"Habitat choice in breeding seabirds: when to cross the information barrier","volume":"70","author":"Forbes","year":"1994","journal-title":"Oikos"},{"key":"2026101905165805900_RSPB20260388C31","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e70349","DOI":"10.1002\/ecy.70349","article-title":"Social cues from neighboring patches influence patch dynamics in a spatially structured population of a colonial bird","volume":"107","author":"Gregory","year":"2026","journal-title":"Ecology"},{"key":"2026101905165805900_RSPB20260388C32","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"342","DOI":"10.1016\/S0169-5347(97)01124-5","article-title":"The evolution of coloniality: the emergence of new perspectives","volume":"12","author":"Danchin","year":"1997","journal-title":"Trends Ecol. Evol."},{"key":"2026101905165805900_RSPB20260388C33","first-page":"293","volume-title":"Paysages et milieux de la plaine du forez","author":"Lebreton","year":"1984"},{"key":"2026101905165805900_RSPB20260388C34","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"317","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1365-2656.2009.01635.x","article-title":"Breeding dispersal in black-headed gull: the value of familiarity in a contrasted environment","volume":"79","author":"P\u00e9ron","year":"2010","journal-title":"J. Anim. Ecol."},{"key":"2026101905165805900_RSPB20260388C35","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3365","DOI":"10.1890\/09-1525.1","article-title":"Studying dispersal at the landscape scale: efficient combination of population surveys and capture\u2013recapture data","volume":"91","author":"P\u00e9ron","year":"2010","journal-title":"Ecology"},{"key":"2026101905165805900_RSPB20260388C36","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"62","DOI":"10.1007\/s004420000564","article-title":"Hatching date influences age at first reproduction in the black-headed gull","volume":"127","author":"Pr\u00e9vot-Julliard","year":"2001","journal-title":"Oecologia"},{"key":"2026101905165805900_RSPB20260388C37","first-page":"159","article-title":"F\u00e9condit\u00e9 de la mouette rieuse (Larus ridibundus) dans une colonie importante de la plaine du Forez (Loire, France)","volume":"69","author":"Lebreton","year":"1979","journal-title":"Le Gerfaut"},{"key":"2026101905165805900_RSPB20260388C38","unstructured":"Lebreton\n              J-D\n            \n          . 1981Contribution \u00e0 la dynamique des populations d'oiseaux\u202f: mod\u00e8les math\u00e9matiques en temps discret. PhD thesis, Universit\u00e9 Claude Bernard, France."},{"key":"2026101905165805900_RSPB20260388C39","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1225","DOI":"10.1890\/0012-9658(2003)084[1225:MDWCDD]2.0.CO;2","article-title":"Modeling dispersal with capture\u2013recapture data: disentangling decisions of leaving and settlement","volume":"84","author":"Grosbois","year":"2003","journal-title":"Ecology"},{"key":"2026101905165805900_RSPB20260388C40","unstructured":"Grosbois\n              V\n            \n          . 2001La dispersion\u202f: trait d'histoire de vie et param\u00e8tre d\u00e9mographique\u202f: \u00e9tude empirique dans une population de mouette rieuse Larus ridibundus. PhD thesis, Universit\u00e9 de Montpellier, France."},{"key":"2026101905165805900_RSPB20260388C41","volume-title":"R: a language and environment for statistical computing","author":"R Core Team","year":"2022"},{"key":"2026101905165805900_RSPB20260388C42","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"378","DOI":"10.32614\/RJ-2017-066","article-title":"glmmTMB balances speed and flexibility among packages for zero-inflated generalized linear mixed modeling","volume":"9","author":"Brooks","year":"2017","journal-title":"R J."},{"key":"2026101905165805900_RSPB20260388C43","article-title":"Emmeans: estimated marginal means, aka least-squares means","author":"Lenth","year":"2025"},{"key":"2026101905165805900_RSPB20260388C44","article-title":"Ineq: measuring inequality, concentration, and poverty","author":"Zeileis","year":"2014"},{"key":"2026101905165805900_RSPB20260388C45","volume-title":"Integrated population models: theory and ecological applications with R and JAGS","author":"Schaub","year":"2021"},{"key":"2026101905165805900_RSPB20260388C46","first-page":"173","article-title":"R\u00e9gulation par le recrutement chez la mouette rieuse Larus ridibundus","volume":"4","author":"Lebreton","year":"1987","journal-title":"Rev. Ecol. Terre Vie"},{"key":"2026101905165805900_RSPB20260388C47","article-title":"JAGS: a program for analysis of Bayesian graphical models using gibbs sampling","volume-title":"Proc. 3rd Int. Workshop Distrib. Stat. Comput.","author":"Plummer","year":"2003"},{"key":"2026101905165805900_RSPB20260388C48","article-title":"JagsUI: a wrapper around \u2018rjags\u2019 to streamline \u2018JAGS\u2019 analyses","author":"Kellner","year":"2024"},{"key":"2026101905165805900_RSPB20260388C49","article-title":"IPMbook: functions and data for the book \u2018Integrated population models\u2019","author":"Schaub","year":"2023"},{"key":"2026101905165805900_RSPB20260388C50","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"457","DOI":"10.1214\/ss\/1177011136","article-title":"Inference from iterative simulation using multiple sequences","volume":"7","author":"Gelman","year":"1992","journal-title":"Stat. Sci."},{"key":"2026101905165805900_RSPB20260388C51","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"13","DOI":"10.1139\/cjz-2016-0281","article-title":"Predation and food\u2013weather interactions drive colony collapse in a managed metapopulation of Arctic Terns (Sterna paradisaea)","volume":"96","author":"Scopel","year":"2018","journal-title":"Can. J. Zool."},{"key":"2026101905165805900_RSPB20260388C52","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"8953","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1713621114","article-title":"Black-swan events: population crashes or temporary emigration?","volume":"114","author":"Youngflesh","year":"2017","journal-title":"Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. U.S.A."},{"key":"2026101905165805900_RSPB20260388C53","unstructured":"Francesiaz\n              C\n            \n          . 2016S\u00e9lection d'habitat et dynamique spatio-temporelle des colonies chez deux esp\u00e8ces de larid\u00e9s, la mouette rieuse et le go\u00e9land railleur. PhD thesis, Universit\u00e9 de Montpellier, France."},{"key":"2026101905165805900_RSPB20260388C54","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"144","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1474-919X.1999.tb04275.x","article-title":"Spatial organization of foraging within a black-headed gull Larus ridibundus colony","volume":"141","author":"Prevot-Julliard","year":"1999","journal-title":"IBIS"},{"key":"2026101905165805900_RSPB20260388C55","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"238","DOI":"10.1002\/1438-390X.12083","article-title":"Demographic impact of landfill closure on a resident opportunistic gull","volume":"63","author":"Delgado","year":"2021","journal-title":"Popul. Ecol."},{"key":"2026101905165805900_RSPB20260388C56","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"520","DOI":"10.1111\/1365-2656.14087","article-title":"Redefining \u2018state-of-the-art\u2019 for integrated population models with immigration","volume":"93","author":"Nater","year":"2024","journal-title":"J. Anim. Ecol."},{"key":"2026101905165805900_RSPB20260388C57","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"881","DOI":"10.1007\/s10336-010-0526-8","article-title":"Costs and benefits of colony size vary during the breeding cycle in black-headed gulls Chroicocephalus ridibundus","volume":"151","author":"P\u00e9ron","year":"2010","journal-title":"J. Ornithol."},{"key":"2026101905165805900_RSPB20260388C58","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1429","DOI":"10.1098\/rspb.2005.3448","article-title":"Spatial network structure and amphibian persistence in stochastic environments","volume":"273","author":"Fortuna","year":"2006","journal-title":"Proc. R. Soc. B"},{"key":"2026101905165805900_RSPB20260388C59","article-title":"Rare events and their role in ecological dynamics. Trends in Ecology & Evolution","author":"Oro","year":"2026"},{"key":"2026101905165805900_RSPB20260388C60","article-title":"Code and data for: change in the demographic dynamics of a spatially structured population of a colonial waterbird after a perturbation affecting a large colony","author":"Gregory","year":"2026"},{"key":"2026101905165805900_RSPB20260388C61","article-title":"Supplementary material from: Change in the demographic dynamics of as patially structured population of a colonial waterbird after a perturbation affecting a large colony","author":"Gregory","year":"2026"}],"container-title":["Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/royalsocietypublishing.org\/rspb\/article-pdf\/doi\/10.1098\/rspb.2026.0388\/6169847\/rspb.2026.0388.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"syndication"},{"URL":"https:\/\/royalsocietypublishing.org\/rspb\/article-pdf\/doi\/10.1098\/rspb.2026.0388\/6169847\/rspb.2026.0388.pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,19]],"date-time":"2026-10-19T09:17:12Z","timestamp":1792401432000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/royalsocietypublishing.org\/rspb\/article\/293\/2080\/20260388\/483592\/Change-in-the-demographic-dynamics-of-a-spatially"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,7]]},"references-count":61,"journal-issue":{"issue":"2080","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,7]]}},"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1098\/rspb.2026.0388","relation":{"has-review":[{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.1098\/RSPB.2026.0388\/v3\/decision1","asserted-by":"object"},{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.1098\/RSPB.2026.0388\/v1\/review1","asserted-by":"object"},{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.1098\/RSPB.2026.0388\/v1\/review2","asserted-by":"object"},{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.1098\/RSPB.2026.0388\/v3\/response1","asserted-by":"object"},{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.1098\/RSPB.2026.0388\/v2\/decision1","asserted-by":"object"},{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.1098\/RSPB.2026.0388\/v2\/review1","asserted-by":"object"},{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.1098\/RSPB.2026.0388\/v1\/decision1","asserted-by":"object"},{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.1098\/RSPB.2026.0388\/v2\/response1","asserted-by":"object"}]},"ISSN":["1471-2954"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1471-2954","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,7]]},"article-number":"20260388"}}