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The rise of dinosaurs and other archosaurs during the Triassic was a spectacular example of such a radiation; it set the stage for Mesozoic faunas and gave rise to the largest land animals on Earth. Previous attempts to understand its dynamics have relied on phylogeny, necessitating the exclusion of much data. We use the Bayesian occurrence-based approach PyRate, allowing speciation and extinction dynamics to be estimated without recourse to phylogeny. We analyse stratigraphic range-based data for all archosauromorphs from the late Permian to the Early Jurassic, and test for association of body size with diversification using a body size proxy. We find an \u2018early burst\u2019 pattern of diversification, with initial high speciation giving way to increased extinction. Falling speciation is consistent with niche-filling following extinction, but increasing extinction may indicate a role for neutral dynamics during radiation. Cryptic diversification may be evidenced by a peak earlier than inferred using phylogenetic estimates. Body size is not statistically associated with diversification, but the positive direction of association potentially reflects the concurrent passive \u2018trend\u2019 of increasing size.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1098\/rspb.2026.0485","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,19]],"date-time":"2026-08-19T00:15:22Z","timestamp":1787098522000},"source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Dawn of the dinosaurs demonstrates early diversification bursts and a potential role for neutral dynamics during major evolutionary radiations"],"prefix":"10.1098","volume":"293","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5189-4011","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Roland B.","family":"Sookias","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Evolution and Diversity Dynamics Lab, University of Li\u00e8ge 1 , Li\u00e8ge, Belgium"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Luciano A.","family":"Pradelli","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Secci\u00f3n Paleontolog\u00eda de Vertebrados, CONICET-Museo Argentino de Ciencias Naturales \u2018Bernardino Rivadavia\u2019 2 , Buenos Aires, Argentina"},{"name":"Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Universidad de Buenos Aires 3 , Buenos Aires, Argentina"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Eduardo","family":"Ascarrunz","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Geosciences, University of Fribourg 4 , Fribourg, Switzerland"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-0100-0961","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Daniele","family":"Silvestro","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Biosystems Science and Engineering, ETH Zurich 5 , Z\u00fcrich, Switzerland"},{"name":"Department of Biological and Environmental Sciences and Gothenburg Global Biodiversity Centre, University of Gothenburg 6 , Gothenburg, Sweden"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-6000-6450","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Mart\u00edn D.","family":"Ezcurra","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Secci\u00f3n Paleontolog\u00eda de Vertebrados, CONICET-Museo Argentino de Ciencias Naturales \u2018Bernardino Rivadavia\u2019 2 , Buenos Aires, Argentina"},{"name":"School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham 7 , Birmingham, UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"175","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,19]]},"reference":[{"key":"2026081820151546300_RSPB20260485C1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e1001854","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pbio.1001854","article-title":"From dinosaurs to modern bird diversity: extending the time scale of adaptive radiation","volume":"12","author":"Moen","year":"2014","journal-title":"PLoS Biol."},{"key":"2026081820151546300_RSPB20260485C2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"20130095","DOI":"10.1098\/rsbl.2013.0095","article-title":"Triassic\u2013Jurassic mass extinction as trigger for the Mesozoic radiation of Crocodylomorphs","volume":"9","author":"Toljagi\u0107","year":"2013","journal-title":"Biol. 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