{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,21]],"date-time":"2026-09-21T15:41:20Z","timestamp":1790005280371,"version":"4.0.1"},"reference-count":44,"publisher":"The Royal Society","issue":"1614","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2013,3,19]],"date-time":"2013-03-19T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1363651200000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/royalsociety.org\/journals\/ethics-policies\/data-sharing-mining\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["royalsocietypublishing.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":[],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2013,3,19]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>The factors that determine the origin and fate of cross-species transmission events remain unclear for the majority of human pathogens, despite being central for the development of predictive models and assessing the efficacy of prevention strategies. Here, we describe a flexible Bayesian statistical framework to reconstruct virus transmission between different host species based on viral gene sequences, while simultaneously testing and estimating the contribution of several potential predictors of cross-species transmission. Specifically, we use a generalized linear model extension of phylogenetic diffusion to perform Bayesian model averaging over candidate predictors. By further extending this model with branch partitioning, we allow for distinct host transition processes on external and internal branches, thus discriminating between recent cross-species transmissions, many of which are likely to result in dead-end infections, and host shifts that reflect successful onwards transmission in the new host species. Our approach corroborates genetic distance between hosts as a key determinant of both host shifts and cross-species transmissions of rabies virus in North American bats. Furthermore, our results indicate that geographical range overlap is a modest predictor for cross-species transmission, but not for host shifts. Although our evolutionary framework focused on the multi-host reservoir dynamics of bat rabies virus, it is applicable to other pathogens and to other discrete state transition processes.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1098\/rstb.2012.0196","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2013,2,4]],"date-time":"2013-02-04T20:49:31Z","timestamp":1360010971000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1098\/crossmark-policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":147,"title":["Simultaneously reconstructing viral cross-species transmission history and identifying the underlying constraints"],"prefix":"10.1098","volume":"368","author":[{"given":"Nuno Rodrigues","family":"Faria","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"1","department":["Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Rega Institute, KU Leuven, Leuven, Belgium"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Marc A.","family":"Suchard","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"2","department":["Department of Biomathematics, David Geffen School of Medicine at UCLA, University of California, Los Angeles, CA, USA"]},{"name":"3","department":["Department of Human Genetics, David Geffen School of Medicine at UCLA, University of California, Los Angeles, CA, USA"]},{"name":"4","department":["Department of Biostatistics, UCLA School of Public Health, University of California, Los Angeles, CA, USA"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Andrew","family":"Rambaut","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"5","department":["Institute of Evolutionary Biology, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK"]},{"name":"6","department":["Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Daniel G.","family":"Streicker","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"7","department":["Odum School of Ecology, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, USA"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Philippe","family":"Lemey","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"1","department":["Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Rega Institute, KU Leuven, Leuven, Belgium"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"175","reference":[{"key":"2026010319104041100_RSTB20120196C1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"710","DOI":"10.1016\/S1473-3099(08)70256-1","article-title":"Emerging infections: a perpetual challenge","volume":"8","author":"Morens,","year":"2008","journal-title":"Lancet Infect. 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