{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,5]],"date-time":"2026-10-05T08:39:07Z","timestamp":1791189547409,"version":"4.1.0"},"reference-count":69,"publisher":"The Royal Society","issue":"1665","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2015,4,5]],"date-time":"2015-04-05T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1428192000000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/royalsociety.org\/journals\/ethics-policies\/data-sharing-mining\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["royalsocietypublishing.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2015,4,5]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>\n                    Climate change can influence the transmission of vector-borne diseases (VBDs) through altering the habitat suitability of insect vectors. Here we present global climate model simulations and evaluate the associated uncertainties in view of the main meteorological factors that may affect the distribution of the Asian tiger mosquito (\n                    <jats:italic>Aedes albopictus<\/jats:italic>\n                    ), which can transmit pathogens that cause chikungunya, dengue fever, yellow fever and various encephalitides. Using a general circulation model at 50 km horizontal resolution to simulate mosquito survival variables including temperature, precipitation and relative humidity, we present both global and regional projections of the habitat suitability up to the middle of the twenty-first century. The model resolution of 50 km allows evaluation against previous projections for Europe and provides a basis for comparative analyses with other regions. Model uncertainties and performance are addressed in light of the recent CMIP5 ensemble climate model simulations for the RCP8.5 concentration pathway and using meteorological re-analysis data (ERA-Interim\/ECMWF) for the recent past. Uncertainty ranges associated with the thresholds of meteorological variables that may affect the distribution of\n                    <jats:italic>Ae. albopictus<\/jats:italic>\n                    are diagnosed using fuzzy-logic methodology, notably to assess the influence of selected meteorological criteria and combinations of criteria that influence mosquito habitat suitability. From the climate projections for 2050, and adopting a habitat suitability index larger than 70%, we estimate that approximately 2.4 billion individuals in a land area of nearly 20 million km\n                    <jats:sup>2<\/jats:sup>\n                    will potentially be exposed to\n                    <jats:italic>Ae. albopictus<\/jats:italic>\n                    . The synthesis of fuzzy-logic based on mosquito biology and climate change analysis provides new insights into the regional and global spreading of VBDs to support disease control and policy making.\n                  <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1098\/rstb.2013.0554","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2015,2,16]],"date-time":"2015-02-16T21:40:08Z","timestamp":1424122808000},"page":"20130554","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1098\/crossmark-policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":65,"title":["Present and future projections of habitat suitability of the Asian tiger mosquito, a vector of viral pathogens, from global climate simulation"],"prefix":"10.1098","volume":"370","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-5991-0322","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Y.","family":"Proestos","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Computation-based Science and Technology Research Center (CaSToRC), The Cyprus Institute, 20 Konstantinou Kavafi Street, 2121 Aglantzia, Nicosia, Cyprus"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"G. K.","family":"Christophides","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Faculty of Natural Sciences, Department of Life Sciences, South Kensington Campus, Imperial College London, London SW7 2AZ, UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"K.","family":"Erg\u00fcler","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Computation-based Science and Technology Research Center (CaSToRC), The Cyprus Institute, 20 Konstantinou Kavafi Street, 2121 Aglantzia, Nicosia, Cyprus"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"M.","family":"Tanarhte","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Atmospheric Chemistry, Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, Hahn-Meitnerweg 1, 55128 Mainz, Germany"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"J.","family":"Waldock","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Computation-based Science and Technology Research Center (CaSToRC), The Cyprus Institute, 20 Konstantinou Kavafi Street, 2121 Aglantzia, Nicosia, Cyprus"},{"name":"Faculty of Natural Sciences, Department of Life Sciences, South Kensington Campus, Imperial College London, London SW7 2AZ, UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"J.","family":"Lelieveld","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Computation-based Science and Technology Research Center (CaSToRC), The Cyprus Institute, 20 Konstantinou Kavafi Street, 2121 Aglantzia, Nicosia, Cyprus"},{"name":"Department of Atmospheric Chemistry, Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, Hahn-Meitnerweg 1, 55128 Mainz, Germany"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"175","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2015,4,5]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_3_4_2_2","volume-title":"Climate Change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability: Working Group II contribution to the fourth assessment report of the IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change","author":"Parry ML","year":"2007"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_3_2","unstructured":"Centre for Agriculture Bioscience International. 2014 Invasive species compendium. 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