{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,30]],"date-time":"2026-09-30T18:36:42Z","timestamp":1790793402502,"version":"4.1.0"},"reference-count":56,"publisher":"The Royal Society","issue":"1725","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2017,6,5]],"date-time":"2017-06-05T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1496620800000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/royalsociety.org\/journals\/ethics-policies\/data-sharing-mining\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100000270","name":"Natural Environment Research Council","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["NE-J001570-1"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["NE-J001570-1"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100000270","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["royalsocietypublishing.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2017,7,19]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>Understanding the emergence and subsequent spread of human infectious diseases is a critical global challenge, especially for high-impact zoonotic and vector-borne diseases. Global climate and land-use change are likely to alter host and vector distributions, but understanding the impact of these changes on the burden of infectious diseases is difficult. Here, we use a Bayesian spatial model to investigate environmental drivers of one of the most important diseases in Africa, Rift Valley fever (RVF). The model uses a hierarchical approach to determine how environmental drivers vary both spatially and seasonally, and incorporates the effects of key climatic oscillations, to produce a continental risk map of RVF in livestock (as a proxy for human RVF risk). We find RVF risk has a distinct seasonal spatial pattern influenced by climatic variation, with the majority of cases occurring in South Africa and Kenya in the first half of an El Ni\u00f1o year. Irrigation, rainfall and human population density were the main drivers of RVF cases, independent of seasonal, climatic or spatial variation. By accounting more subtly for the patterns in RVF data, we better determine the importance of underlying environmental drivers, and also make space- and time-sensitive predictions to better direct future surveillance resources.<\/jats:p>\n                  <jats:p>This article is part of the themed issue \u2018One Health for a changing world: zoonoses, ecosystems and human well-being\u2019.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1098\/rstb.2016.0165","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2017,6,5]],"date-time":"2017-06-05T20:10:29Z","timestamp":1496693429000},"page":"20160165","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1098\/crossmark-policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":62,"title":["Spatial, seasonal and climatic predictive models of Rift Valley fever disease across Africa"],"prefix":"10.1098","volume":"372","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-8615-1798","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"David W.","family":"Redding","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre for Biodiversity and Environment Research, Department of Genetics, Evolution and Environment, University College London, Gower Street, London WC1E 6BT, UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-1967-6436","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Sonia","family":"Tiedt","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre for Biodiversity and Environment Research, Department of Genetics, Evolution and Environment, University College London, Gower Street, London WC1E 6BT, UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-6150-2843","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Gianni","family":"Lo Iacono","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Veterinary Medicine, Disease Dynamics Unit, University of Cambridge, Madingley Road, Cambridge CB3 0ES, UK"},{"name":"Environmental Change, Public Health England, Didcot OX11 0RQ, UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-9376-2941","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Bernard","family":"Bett","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"International Livestock Research Institute, PO Box 30709-00100, Nairobi, Kenya"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-5231-3293","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Kate E.","family":"Jones","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre for Biodiversity and Environment Research, Department of Genetics, Evolution and Environment, University College London, Gower Street, London WC1E 6BT, UK"},{"name":"Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, Regent's Park, London NW1 4RY, UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"175","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2017,6,5]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_3_6_2_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.ppat.1003467"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_3_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(09)60233-6"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_4_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/2041-210X.12549"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_5_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rstb.2016.0164"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_6_2","volume-title":"Human diseases with natural foci","author":"Pavlovsky EN","year":"1963"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_7_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ecolmodel.2005.03.026"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_8_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.2006.0906-7590.04596.x"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_9_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3201\/eid1001.030125"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_10_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/nrmicro3430"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_11_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/nature06536"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_12_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0000388"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_13_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/env.1065"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_14_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1467-9868.2008.00700.x"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_15_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/srep09492"},{"key":"e_1_3_6_16_2","first-page":"1037","article-title":"Rift valley fever","volume":"2","author":"Swanepoel R","year":"2004","journal-title":"Infect. 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