{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,11]],"date-time":"2026-09-11T23:08:02Z","timestamp":1789168082742,"version":"build-2803163510"},"reference-count":46,"publisher":"The Royal Society","issue":"1829","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,8,6]],"date-time":"2025-08-06T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1754438400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":1528,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,8,6]],"date-time":"2025-08-06T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1754438400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":1528,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,8,6]],"date-time":"2025-08-06T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1754438400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":1528,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2021,5,31]],"date-time":"2021-05-31T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1622419200000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/royalsociety.org\/journals\/ethics-policies\/data-sharing-mining\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100000266","name":"Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","award":["EP\/S022244\/1"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["EP\/S022244\/1"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100000266","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"crossref"}]},{"name":"Medical Research Council","award":["MR\/V009761\/1"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["MR\/V009761\/1"]}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100000266","name":"Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","award":["EP\/S022244\/1"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["EP\/S022244\/1"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100000266","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"crossref"}]},{"name":"Medical Research Council","award":["MR\/V009761\/1"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["MR\/V009761\/1"]}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["royalsocietypublishing.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":[],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2021,7,19]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>By mid-May 2020, cases of COVID-19 in the UK had been declining for over a month; a multi-phase emergence from lockdown was planned, including a scheduled partial reopening of schools on 1 June 2020. Although evidence suggests that children generally display mild symptoms, the size of the school-age population means the total impact of reopening schools is unclear. Here, we present work from mid-May 2020 that focused on the imminent opening of schools and consider what these results imply for future policy. We compared eight strategies for reopening primary and secondary schools in England. Modifying a transmission model fitted to UK SARS-CoV-2 data, we assessed how reopening schools affects contact patterns, anticipated secondary infections and the relative change in the reproduction number, R. We determined the associated public health impact and its sensitivity to changes in social distancing within the wider community. We predicted that reopening schools with half-sized classes or focused on younger children was unlikely to push R above one. Older children generally have more social contacts, so reopening secondary schools results in more cases than reopening primary schools, while reopening both could have pushed R above one in some regions. Reductions in community social distancing were found to outweigh and exacerbate any impacts of reopening. In particular, opening schools when the reproduction number R is already above one generates the largest increase in cases. Our work indicates that while any school reopening will result in increased mixing and infection amongst children and the wider population, reopening schools alone in June 2020 was unlikely to push R above one. Ultimately, reopening decisions are a difficult trade-off between epidemiological consequences and the emotional, educational and developmental needs of children. Into the future, there are difficult questions about what controls can be instigated such that schools can remain open if cases increase.<\/jats:p>\n                  <jats:p>This article is part of the theme issue \u2018Modelling that shaped the early COVID-19 pandemic response in the UK\u2019.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1098\/rstb.2020.0261","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2021,5,31]],"date-time":"2021-05-31T03:36:55Z","timestamp":1622432215000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1098\/crossmark-policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":49,"title":["The impact of school reopening on the spread of COVID-19 in England"],"prefix":"10.1098","volume":"376","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-4639-4765","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Matt J.","family":"Keeling","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"1 The Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, School of Life Sciences and Mathematics InstituteUniversity of Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL, UK"},{"name":"2 Joint UNIversities Pandemic and Epidemiological Research, https:\/\/maths.org\/juniper\/, University of Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL, UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-6875-7232","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Michael J.","family":"Tildesley","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"1 The Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, School of Life Sciences and Mathematics InstituteUniversity of Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL, UK"},{"name":"2 Joint UNIversities Pandemic and Epidemiological Research, https:\/\/maths.org\/juniper\/, University of Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL, UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Benjamin D.","family":"Atkins","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"1 The Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, School of Life Sciences and Mathematics InstituteUniversity of Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL, UK"},{"name":"2 Joint UNIversities Pandemic and Epidemiological Research, https:\/\/maths.org\/juniper\/, University of Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL, UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Bridget","family":"Penman","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"1 The Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, School of Life Sciences and Mathematics InstituteUniversity of Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL, UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-7319-3080","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Emma","family":"Southall","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"1 The Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, School of Life Sciences and Mathematics InstituteUniversity of Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL, UK"},{"name":"3 Mathematics for Real World Systems Centre for Doctoral Training, Mathematics InstituteUniversity of Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL, UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-9820-966X","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Glen","family":"Guyver-Fletcher","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"1 The Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, School of Life Sciences and Mathematics InstituteUniversity of Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL, UK"},{"name":"4 Midlands Integrative Biosciences Training Partnership, School of Life SciencesUniversity of Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL, UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5913-851X","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Alex","family":"Holmes","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"1 The Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, School of Life Sciences and Mathematics InstituteUniversity of Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL, UK"},{"name":"3 Mathematics for Real World Systems Centre for Doctoral Training, Mathematics InstituteUniversity of Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL, UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Hector","family":"McKimm","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"1 The Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, School of Life Sciences and Mathematics InstituteUniversity of Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL, UK"},{"name":"5 Department of Statistics, University of Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL, UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-3017-0540","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Erin E.","family":"Gorsich","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"1 The Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, School of Life Sciences and Mathematics InstituteUniversity of Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL, UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-2992-2004","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Edward M.","family":"Hill","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"1 The Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, School of Life Sciences and Mathematics InstituteUniversity of Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL, UK"},{"name":"2 Joint UNIversities Pandemic and Epidemiological Research, https:\/\/maths.org\/juniper\/, University of Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL, UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-9788-4858","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Louise","family":"Dyson","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"1 The Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, School of Life Sciences and Mathematics InstituteUniversity of Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL, UK"},{"name":"2 Joint UNIversities Pandemic and 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Paediatr."},{"key":"2026010105284540300_RSTB20200261C3","unstructured":"Forbes\n              MB\n            , MehtaK, KumarK, LuJ, Le SauxN, SampsonM, RobinsonJ. 2020COVID-19 infection in children: estimating pediatric morbidity and mortality. medRxiv (doi:10.1101\/2020.05.05.20091751)"},{"key":"2026010105284540300_RSTB20200261C4","unstructured":"NHS England. 2020COVID-19 total announced deaths 27 May 2020. https:\/\/www.england.nhs.uk\/statistics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/05\/COVID-19-total-announced-deaths-28-May-2020.xlsx [Online] (accessed 23 June 2020)."},{"key":"2026010105284540300_RSTB20200261C5","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e20200702","DOI":"10.1542\/peds.2020-0702","article-title":"Epidemiology of COVID-19 among children in China","volume":"145","author":"Dong","year":"2020","journal-title":"Pediatrics"},{"key":"2026010105284540300_RSTB20200261C6","first-page":"1915","article-title":"Evolving epidemiology and impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on the outbreak of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in Wuhan, China","volume":"323","author":"Wang","year":"2020","journal-title":"JAMA"},{"key":"2026010105284540300_RSTB20200261C7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"143","DOI":"10.1001\/jamapediatrics.2020.4573","article-title":"Susceptibility to and transmission of COVID-19 amongst children and adolescents compared with adults: a systematic review and meta-analysis","volume":"175","author":"Viner","year":"2020","journal-title":"JAMA Pediatr."},{"key":"2026010105284540300_RSTB20200261C8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"397","DOI":"10.1016\/S2352-4642(20)30095-X","article-title":"School closure and management practices during coronavirus outbreaks including COVID-19: a rapid systematic review","volume":"4","author":"Viner","year":"2020","journal-title":"The Lancet Child and Adolescent Health"},{"key":"2026010105284540300_RSTB20200261C9","first-page":"eabb8001","article-title":"Changes in contact patterns shape the dynamics of the COVID-19 outbreak in China","volume":"8001","author":"Zhang","year":"2020","journal-title":"Science"},{"key":"2026010105284540300_RSTB20200261C10","article-title":"Modes of contact and risk of transmission in COVID-19 among close contacts","author":"Luo","year":"2020","journal-title":"medRxiv"},{"key":"2026010105284540300_RSTB20200261C11","first-page":"1","article-title":"Epidemiology and transmission of COVID-19 in 391 cases and 1286 of their close contacts in Shenzhen, China: a retrospective cohort study","volume":"3099","author":"Bi","year":"2020","journal-title":"Lancet Infect. 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(accessed 23 June 2020)."},{"key":"2026010105284540300_RSTB20200261C40","unstructured":"Department of Health and Social Care. 2020 NHS test and trace: how it works. https:\/\/www.gov.uk\/guidance\/nhs-test-and-trace-how-it-works. (accessed 29 July 2020)."},{"key":"2026010105284540300_RSTB20200261C41","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"344","DOI":"10.1016\/S1473-3099(20)30882-3","article-title":"SARS-CoV-2 infection and transmission in educational settings: a prospective, cross-sectional analysis of infection clusters and outbreaks in England","volume":"21","author":"Ismail","year":"2021","journal-title":"The Lancet Infect. 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Infect."},{"key":"2026010105284540300_RSTB20200261C44","article-title":"An analysis of school absences in England during the Covid-19 pandemic","author":"Southall","year":"2021","journal-title":"medRxiv"},{"key":"2026010105284540300_RSTB20200261C45","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"796","DOI":"10.1016\/S2352-4642(20)30249-2","article-title":"Finding a path to reopen schools during the COVID-19 pandemic","volume":"4","author":"Edmunds","year":"2020","journal-title":"Lancet Child and Adolescent Health"},{"key":"2026010105284540300_RSTB20200261C46","article-title":"Assessing the impact of secondary school reopening strategies on withinschool COVID-19 transmission and absences: a modelling study","author":"Leng","year":"2021","journal-title":"medRxiv."}],"container-title":["Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/royalsocietypublishing.org\/doi\/pdf\/10.1098\/rstb.2020.0261","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/royalsocietypublishing.org\/doi\/full-xml\/10.1098\/rstb.2020.0261","content-type":"application\/xml","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/royalsocietypublishing.org\/rstb\/article-pdf\/doi\/10.1098\/rstb.2020.0261\/167932\/rstb.2020.0261.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"syndication"},{"URL":"https:\/\/royalsocietypublishing.org\/rstb\/article-pdf\/doi\/10.1098\/rstb.2020.0261\/167932\/rstb.2020.0261.pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,1]],"date-time":"2026-01-01T10:28:58Z","timestamp":1767263338000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/royalsocietypublishing.org\/rstb\/article\/376\/1829\/20200261\/31588\/The-impact-of-school-reopening-on-the-spread-of"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2021,5,31]]},"references-count":46,"journal-issue":{"issue":"1829","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2021,5,31]]},"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2021,7,19]]}},"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1098\/rstb.2020.0261","relation":{"has-preprint":[{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.1101\/2020.06.04.20121434","asserted-by":"object"}]},"ISSN":["0962-8436","1471-2970"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0962-8436","type":"print"},{"value":"1471-2970","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2021,5,31]]},"assertion":[{"value":"2020-10-12","order":1,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2021-05-31","order":2,"name":"published","label":"Published","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}}],"article-number":"20200261"}}