{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,5]],"date-time":"2026-08-05T11:08:02Z","timestamp":1785928082239,"version":"3.56.0"},"reference-count":32,"publisher":"The Royal Society","issue":"1829","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,8,6]],"date-time":"2025-08-06T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1754438400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":1528,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,8,6]],"date-time":"2025-08-06T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1754438400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":1528,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,8,6]],"date-time":"2025-08-06T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1754438400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":1528,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2021,5,31]],"date-time":"2021-05-31T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1622419200000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/royalsociety.org\/journals\/ethics-policies\/data-sharing-mining\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100002141","name":"Public Health England","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100002141","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"crossref"}]},{"name":"Medical Research Council","award":["MC UU 00002\/11"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["MC UU 00002\/11"]}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100000664","name":"Health Technology Assessment Programme","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","award":["11\/46\/03"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["11\/46\/03"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100000664","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"crossref"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100002141","name":"Public Health England","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100002141","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"crossref"}]},{"name":"Medical Research Council","award":["MC UU 00002\/11"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["MC UU 00002\/11"]}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100000664","name":"Health Technology Assessment Programme","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","award":["11\/46\/03"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["11\/46\/03"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100000664","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"crossref"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["royalsocietypublishing.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":[],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2021,7,19]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>England has been heavily affected by the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, with severe \u2018lockdown\u2019 mitigation measures now gradually being lifted. The real-time pandemic monitoring presented here has contributed to the evidence informing this pandemic management throughout the first wave. Estimates on the 10 May showed lockdown had reduced transmission by 75%, the reproduction number falling from 2.6 to 0.61. This regionally varying impact was largest in London with a reduction of 81% (95% credible interval: 77\u201384%). Reproduction numbers have since then slowly increased, and on 19 June the probability of the epidemic growing was greater than 5% in two regions, South West and London. By this date, an estimated 8% of the population had been infected, with a higher proportion in London (17%). The infection-to-fatality ratio is 1.1% (0.9\u20131.4%) overall but 17% (14\u201322%) among the over-75s. This ongoing work continues to be key to quantifying any widespread resurgence, should accrued immunity and effective contact tracing be insufficient to preclude a second wave.<\/jats:p>\n                  <jats:p>This article is part of the theme issue \u2018Modelling that shaped the early COVID-19 pandemic response in the UK\u2019.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1098\/rstb.2020.0279","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2021,5,31]],"date-time":"2021-05-31T03:36:55Z","timestamp":1622432215000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1098\/crossmark-policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":80,"title":["Real-time nowcasting and forecasting of COVID-19 dynamics in England: the first wave"],"prefix":"10.1098","volume":"376","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-8131-4893","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Paul","family":"Birrell","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"1 Public Health England, National Infection Service, 61 Colindale Avenue, London NW9 5HT, UK"},{"name":"2 MRC Biostatistics Unit, University of Cambridge, East Forvie Site Building, Forvie Site, Robinson Way, Cambridge Biomedical Campus, Cambridge CB2 OSR, UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-7522-3741","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Joshua","family":"Blake","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"2 MRC Biostatistics Unit, University of Cambridge, East Forvie Site Building, Forvie Site, Robinson Way, Cambridge Biomedical Campus, Cambridge CB2 OSR, UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-2383-5305","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Edwin","family":"van Leeuwen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"1 Public Health England, National Infection Service, 61 Colindale Avenue, London NW9 5HT, UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Nick","family":"Gent","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"3 Public Health England, Emergency Response Department, Porton Down, SP4 0JG, UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-6619-6112","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Daniela","family":"De Angelis","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"2 MRC Biostatistics Unit, University of Cambridge, East Forvie Site Building, Forvie Site, Robinson Way, Cambridge Biomedical Campus, Cambridge CB2 OSR, UK"},{"name":"1 Public Health England, National Infection Service, 61 Colindale Avenue, London NW9 5HT, UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"175","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2021,5,31]]},"reference":[{"key":"2026010105290239300_RSTB20200279C1","unstructured":"Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE), Johns Hopkins University. 2020 COVID-19 Case Tracker. 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