{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,25]],"date-time":"2026-09-25T15:25:28Z","timestamp":1790349928777,"version":"4.1.0"},"reference-count":18,"publisher":"The Royal Society","issue":"1887","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,9,9]],"date-time":"2025-09-09T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1757376000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":750,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,9,9]],"date-time":"2025-09-09T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1757376000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":750,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,9,9]],"date-time":"2025-09-09T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1757376000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":750,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2023,8,21]],"date-time":"2023-08-21T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1692576000000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/royalsociety.org\/journals\/ethics-policies\/data-sharing-mining\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000865","name":"Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","award":["INV-030046"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["INV-030046"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000865","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"crossref"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000865","name":"Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","award":["INV-030046"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["INV-030046"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000865","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"crossref"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["royalsocietypublishing.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":[],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2023,10,9]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>Current WHO guidelines set prevalence thresholds below which a neglected tropical disease can be considered to have been eliminated as a public health problem, and specify how surveys to assess whether elimination has been achieved should be designed and analysed, based on classical survey sampling methods. In this paper, we describe an alternative approach based on geospatial statistical modelling. We first show the gains in efficiency that can be obtained by exploiting any spatial correlation in the underlying prevalence. We then suggest that the current guidelines' implicit use of a significance testing argument is not appropriate; instead, we argue for a predictive inferential framework, leading to design criteria based on controlling the rates at which areas whose true prevalence lies above and below the elimination threshold are incorrectly classified. We describe how this approach naturally accommodates context-specific information in the form of georeferenced covariates that have been shown to be predictive of disease prevalence. Finally, we give a progress report of an ongoing collaboration with the Guyana Ministry of Health Neglected Tropical Disease programme on the design of an IDA (ivermectin, diethylcarbamazine and albendazole) Impact Survey of lymphatic filariasis to be conducted in Guyana in early 2023.<\/jats:p>\n                  <jats:p>This article is part of the theme issue \u2018Challenges and opportunities in the fight against neglected tropical diseases: a decade from the London Declaration on NTDs\u2019.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1098\/rstb.2022.0276","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2023,8,20]],"date-time":"2023-08-20T19:05:40Z","timestamp":1692558340000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1098\/crossmark-policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":8,"title":["Modernizing the design and analysis of prevalence surveys for neglected tropical diseases"],"prefix":"10.1098","volume":"378","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3521-5020","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Peter J","family":"Diggle","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"CHICAS, Lancaster Medical School, Lancaster University 1 ,"},{"name":"Lancaster, LA1 3YF, UK 1 ,"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Claudio","family":"Fronterre","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"CHICAS, Lancaster Medical School, Lancaster University 1 ,"},{"name":"Lancaster, LA1 3YF, UK 1 ,"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Katherine","family":"Gass","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Task Force for Global Health 2 ,"},{"name":"325 Swanton Way, Decatur, 30030, GA, USA 2 ,"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-4120-4398","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Lee","family":"Hundley","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Task Force for Global Health 2 ,"},{"name":"325 Swanton Way, Decatur, 30030, GA, USA 2 ,"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-5948-4335","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Reza","family":"Niles-Robin","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Neglected Tropical Disease Program, Vector Control Services 3 , ,"},{"name":"Ministry of Health 3 , ,"},{"name":"Georgetown, Guyana 3 , ,"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Annastacia","family":"Sampson","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Neglected Tropical Disease Program, Vector Control Services 3 , ,"},{"name":"Ministry of Health 3 , ,"},{"name":"Georgetown, Guyana 3 , ,"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Ana","family":"Morice","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Neglected, Tropical, and Vector-Borne Diseases Unit, Communicable Diseases and Environmental Determinants of Health Department, Pan American Health Organization 4 ,"},{"name":"Washington, 20037, DC, USA 4 ,"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Ronaldo Carvalho","family":"Scholte","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Neglected, Tropical, and Vector-Borne Diseases Unit, Communicable Diseases and Environmental Determinants of Health Department, Pan American Health Organization 4 ,"},{"name":"Washington, 20037, DC, USA 4 ,"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"175","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2023,8,21]]},"reference":[{"key":"2026010106405783600_RSTB20220276C1","volume-title":"Ending the neglect to attain the sustainable development goals: a road map for neglected tropical diseases 2021\u20132030","author":"WHO","year":"2020"},{"key":"2026010106405783600_RSTB20220276C2","volume-title":"Monitoring and epidemiological assessment of mass drug administration in the global programme to eliminate lymphatic filariasis: a manual for national elimination programmes","author":"WHO","year":"2011"},{"key":"2026010106405783600_RSTB20220276C3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"208","DOI":"10.1093\/trstmh\/trab020","article-title":"Rethinking NTD prevalence survey design and analysis: a geospatial paradigm","volume":"115","author":"Diggle","year":"2021","journal-title":"Trans. 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