{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,1]],"date-time":"2026-01-01T14:11:57Z","timestamp":1767276717243,"version":"3.48.0"},"reference-count":32,"publisher":"The Royal Society","issue":"1887","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,9,9]],"date-time":"2025-09-09T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1757376000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":750,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,9,9]],"date-time":"2025-09-09T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1757376000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":750,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,9,9]],"date-time":"2025-09-09T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1757376000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":750,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2023,8,21]],"date-time":"2023-08-21T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1692576000000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/royalsociety.org\/journals\/ethics-policies\/data-sharing-mining\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000865","name":"Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","award":["OPP1184344"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["OPP1184344"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000865","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"crossref"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000865","name":"Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","award":["OPP1184344"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["OPP1184344"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000865","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"crossref"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["royalsocietypublishing.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":[],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2023,10,9]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>Several countries have come close to eliminating leprosy, but leprosy cases continue to be detected at low levels. Due to the long, highly variable delay from infection to detection, the relationship between observed cases and transmission is uncertain. The World Health Organization's new technical guidance provides a path for countries to reach elimination. We use a simple probabilistic model to simulate the stochastic dynamics of detected cases as transmission declines, and evaluate progress through the new public health milestones. In simulations where transmission is halted, 5 years of zero incidence in autochthonous children, combined with 3 years of zero incidence in all\u00a0ages is a flawed indicator that transmission has halted (54% correctly classified). A further 10 years of only occasional sporadic cases is associated with a high probability of having interrupted transmission (99%). If, however, transmission continues at extremely low levels, it is possible that cases could be misidentified as historic cases from the tail of the incubation period distribution, although misleadingly achieving all three milestones is unlikely (less than 1% probability across a 15-year period of ongoing low-level transmission). These results demonstrate the feasibility and challenges of a phased progression of milestones towards interruption of transmission, allowing assessment of programme status.<\/jats:p>\n                  <jats:p>This article is part of the theme issue \u2018Challenges and opportunities in the fight against neglected tropical diseases: a decade from the London Declaration on NTDs\u2019.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1098\/rstb.2022.0408","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2023,8,20]],"date-time":"2023-08-20T19:05:40Z","timestamp":1692558340000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1098\/crossmark-policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":4,"title":["A modelling analysis of a new multi-stage pathway for classifying achievement of public health milestones for leprosy"],"prefix":"10.1098","volume":"378","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-6261-775X","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Emma L.","family":"Davis","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick 1 ,"},{"name":"Coventry, CV4 7AL, UK 1 ,"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Ron E.","family":"Crump","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick 1 ,"},{"name":"Coventry, CV4 7AL, UK 1 ,"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Graham F.","family":"Medley","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine 2 ,"},{"name":"London, WC1E 7HT, UK 2 ,"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Anthony W.","family":"Solomon","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Global Neglected Tropical Diseases Programme, World Health Organization 3 ,"},{"name":"Geneva, 1211, Switzerland 3 ,"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Venkata Ranganadha Rao","family":"Pemmaraju","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Global Leprosy Programme 4 , ,"},{"name":"World Health Organization 4 , ,"},{"name":"New Delhi, India 4 , ,"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-5962-4238","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"T. D\u00e9irdre","family":"Hollingsworth","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford 5 ,"},{"name":"Oxford, OX3 7LF, UK 5 ,"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"175","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2023,8,21]]},"reference":[{"year":"2023","author":"World Health Organization (WHO)","key":"2026010106400712700_RSTB20220408C1"},{"key":"2026010106400712700_RSTB20220408C2","first-page":"513","article-title":"Weekly epidemiological record, 2022, vol. 97, 41 [full issue]","volume":"97","author":"World Health Organization","year":"2022","journal-title":"Wkly Epidemiol. Rec."},{"key":"2026010106400712700_RSTB20220408C3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"161","DOI":"10.1093\/oxfordjournals.epirev.a036245","article-title":"Leprosy: the epidemiology of a slow bacterium","volume":"4","author":"Fine","year":"1982","journal-title":"Epidemiol. 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