{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,12]],"date-time":"2026-05-12T22:22:01Z","timestamp":1778624521766,"version":"3.51.4"},"reference-count":36,"publisher":"The Royal Society","issue":"1918","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,1,23]],"date-time":"2025-01-23T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1737590400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,1,23]],"date-time":"2025-01-23T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1737590400000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000001","name":"National Science Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000001","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"name":"Cornell University College of Agricultural and Life Sciences"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["royalsocietypublishing.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2025,1,23]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>The multiplication rates of pathogenic organisms influence disease progression, efficacy of immunity and therapeutics, and potential for within-host evolution. Thus, accurate estimates of multiplication rates are essential for biological understanding. We recently showed that common methods for inferring multiplication rates from malaria infection data substantially overestimate true values (i.e. under simulated scenarios), providing context for extraordinarily large estimates in human malaria parasites. A key unknown is whether this bias arises specifically from malaria parasite biology or represents a broader concern. Here, we identify the potential for biased multiplication rate estimates across pathogenic organisms with different developmental biology by generalizing a within-host malaria model. We find that diverse patterns of developmental sampling bias\u2014the change in detectability over developmental age\u2014reliably generate overestimates of the fold change in abundance, obscuring not just true growth rates but potentially even whether populations are expanding or declining. This pattern emerges whenever synchrony\u2014the degree to which development is synchronized across the population of pathogenic organisms comprising an infection\u2014decays with time. Only with simulated increases in synchrony do we find noticeable underestimates of multiplication rates. Obtaining robust estimates of multiplication rates may require accounting for diverse patterns of synchrony in pathogenic organisms.<\/jats:p>\n                  <jats:p>This article is part of the Theo Murphy meeting issue \u2018Circadian rhythms in infection and immunity\u2019.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1098\/rstb.2023.0337","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,1,22]],"date-time":"2025-01-22T19:08:02Z","timestamp":1737572882000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1098\/crossmark-policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":2,"title":["Developmental synchrony and extraordinary multiplication rates in pathogenic organisms"],"prefix":"10.1098","volume":"380","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-7521-9344","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Megan A.","family":"Greischar","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853, USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3904-3895","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Lauren M.","family":"Childs","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Mathematics, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA 24061, USA"},{"name":"Virginia Tech Center for the Mathematics of Biosystems, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA 24061, USA"},{"name":"Center for Emerging, Zoonotic, and Arthropod-borne Pathogens, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA 24061, USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"175","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,1,23]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_3_8_2_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/1937747"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_3_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1715874115"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_4_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rspb.2014.0566"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_5_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1004689"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_6_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1420-9101.2008.01658.x"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_7_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rstb.2003.1414"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_8_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1243727"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_9_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.pt.2021.05.001"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_10_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.pt.2023.05.006"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_11_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1046\/j.1461-0248.2003.00509.x"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_12_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.pt.2012.10.006"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_13_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.pt.2019.03.002"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_14_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0035-9203(92)90141-X"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_15_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1128\/IAI.00705-13"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_16_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/0748730417718904"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_17_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.ppat.1010770"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_18_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.tcsw.2023.100113"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_19_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0035-9203(78)90008-1"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_20_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/s13071-021-04980-3"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_21_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0166-6851(03)00195-6"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_22_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1006\/jtbi.2002.3030"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_23_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1804388115"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_24_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1046\/j.1365-2958.2003.03784.x"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_25_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1129720"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_26_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.ppat.0030171"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_27_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/biomet\/33.3.183"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_28_2","first-page":"966","volume-title":"Malariology--a comprehensive survey of all aspects of this group of diseases from a global standpoint","author":"Kitchen SF","year":"1949","unstructured":"Kitchen SF. 1949 Symptomatology: General Considerations. In Malariology--a comprehensive survey of all aspects of this group of diseases from a global standpoint (ed. MF Boyd), pp. 966\u2013994, vol. 2. Philadelphia, PA: W.B. Saunders Company."},{"key":"e_1_3_8_29_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/2041-210X.14164"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_30_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1137\/S0036144598335107"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_31_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1128\/JVI.00127-10"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_32_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.ppat.1006900"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_33_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/s12879-018-3117-6"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_34_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1086\/663201"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_35_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/1940484"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_36_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1238477"},{"key":"e_1_3_8_37_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Greischar MA Childs L. 2024 Supplementary material from: Developmental synchrony and extraordinary multiplication rates in pathogenic organisms. Figshare. 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