{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"institution":[{"name":"medRxiv"}],"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,16]],"date-time":"2026-01-16T06:52:56Z","timestamp":1768546376320,"version":"3.49.0"},"posted":{"date-parts":[[2020,7,1]]},"group-title":"Public and Global Health","reference-count":30,"publisher":"openRxiv","content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"accepted":{"date-parts":[[2020,7,1]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>ABSTRACT<\/jats:title>\n                <jats:sec>\n                  <jats:title>Background<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>Healthcare resource constraints in low and middle-income countries necessitate selection of cost-effective public health interventions to address COVID-19.<\/jats:p>\n                <\/jats:sec>\n                <jats:sec>\n                  <jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>\n                    We developed a dynamic COVID-19 microsimulation model to evaluate clinical and economic outcomes and cost-effectiveness of epidemic control strategies in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Interventions assessed were Healthcare Testing (HT), where diagnostic testing is performed only for those presenting to healthcare centres; Contact Tracing (CT) in households of cases; Isolation Centres (IC), for cases not requiring hospitalisation; community health worker-led Mass Symptom Screening and diagnostic testing for symptomatic individuals (MS); and Quarantine Centres (QC), for contacts who test negative. Given uncertainties about epidemic dynamics in South Africa, we evaluated two main epidemic scenarios over 360 days, with effective reproduction numbers (R\n                    <jats:sub>e<\/jats:sub>\n                    ) of 1\u00b75 and 1\u00b72. We compared\n                    <jats:italic>HT, HT+CT, HT+CT+IC, HT+CT+IC+MS, HT+CT+IC+QC<\/jats:italic>\n                    , and\n                    <jats:italic>HT+CT+IC+MS+QC<\/jats:italic>\n                    , considering strategies with incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) &lt;US$1,290\/year-of-life saved (YLS) to be cost-effective.\n                  <\/jats:p>\n                <\/jats:sec>\n                <jats:sec>\n                  <jats:title>Findings<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>\n                    With R\n                    <jats:sub>e<\/jats:sub>\n                    1\u00b75,\n                    <jats:italic>HT<\/jats:italic>\n                    resulted in the most COVID-19 deaths and lowest costs over 360 days. Compared with\n                    <jats:italic>HT, HT+CT+IC+MS<\/jats:italic>\n                    reduced mortality by 76%, increased costs by 16%, and was cost-effective (ICER $350\/YLS).\n                    <jats:italic>HT+CT+IC+MS+QC<\/jats:italic>\n                    provided the greatest reduction in mortality, but increased costs by 95% compared with\n                    <jats:italic>HT+CT+IC+MS<\/jats:italic>\n                    and was not cost-effective (ICER $8,000\/YLS). With R\n                    <jats:sub>e<\/jats:sub>\n                    1\u00b72,\n                    <jats:italic>HT+CT+IC+MS<\/jats:italic>\n                    was the least costly strategy, and\n                    <jats:italic>HT+CT+IC+MS+QC<\/jats:italic>\n                    was not cost-effective (ICER $294,320\/YLS).\n                  <\/jats:p>\n                <\/jats:sec>\n                <jats:sec>\n                  <jats:title>Interpretation<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>In South Africa, a strategy of household contact tracing, isolation, and mass symptom screening would substantially reduce COVID-19 mortality and be cost-effective. Adding quarantine centres for COVID-19 contacts is not cost-effective.<\/jats:p>\n                <\/jats:sec>\n                <jats:sec>\n                  <jats:title>Funding<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>Royal Society, Wellcome Trust, National Institutes of Health<\/jats:p>\n                <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1101\/2020.06.29.20140111","type":"posted-content","created":{"date-parts":[[2020,7,1]],"date-time":"2020-07-01T12:47:26Z","timestamp":1593607646000},"source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":9,"title":["Cost-effectiveness of public health strategies for COVID-19 epidemic control in South Africa"],"prefix":"10.64898","author":[{"given":"Krishna P.","family":"Reddy","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Fatma M.","family":"Shebl","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Julia H. 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