{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"institution":[{"name":"medRxiv"}],"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,30]],"date-time":"2026-04-30T12:00:42Z","timestamp":1777550442209,"version":"3.51.4"},"posted":{"date-parts":[[2022,3,13]]},"group-title":"Public and Global Health","reference-count":24,"publisher":"openRxiv","content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"accepted":{"date-parts":[[2022,3,13]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n                <jats:p>In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the South African government employed various nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in order to reduce the spread of SARS-CoV-2. In addition to mitigating transmission of SARS-CoV-2, these public health measures have also functioned in slowing the spread of other endemic respiratory pathogens. Surveillance data from South Africa indicates low circulation of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) throughout the 2020-2021 Southern Hemisphere winter seasons. Here we fit age-structured epidemiological models to national surveillance data to predict the 2022 RSV outbreak following two suppressed seasons. We project a 32% increase in the peak number of monthly hospitalizations among infants \u2264 2 years, with older infants (6-23 month olds) experiencing a larger portion of severe disease burden than typical. Our results suggest that hospital system readiness should be prepared for an intense RSV season in early 2022.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1101\/2022.03.12.22271872","type":"posted-content","created":{"date-parts":[[2022,3,13]],"date-time":"2022-03-13T20:05:12Z","timestamp":1647201912000},"source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":3,"title":["The impact of COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical interventions on future respiratory syncytial virus transmission in South Africa"],"prefix":"10.64898","author":[{"given":"Samantha","family":"Bents","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"C\u00e9cile","family":"Viboud","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Bryan","family":"Grenfell","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Alexandra","family":"Hogan","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Stefano","family":"Tempia","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Anne von","family":"Gottberg","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Jocelyn","family":"Moyes","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Sibongile","family":"Walaza","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-0376-2302","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Cheryl","family":"Cohen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Rachel","family":"Baker","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"54368","reference":[{"key":"2022031509401702000_2022.03.12.22271872v1.1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/s0140-6736(16)31012-1"},{"key":"2022031509401702000_2022.03.12.22271872v1.2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Tempia, S. et al. Decline of influenza and respiratory syncytial virus detection in facility-based surveillance during the COVID-19 pandemic, South Africa, January to October 2020. Eurosurveillance 26, (2021).","DOI":"10.2807\/1560-7917.ES.2021.26.29.2001600"},{"key":"2022031509401702000_2022.03.12.22271872v1.3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/cid\/ciac055"},{"key":"2022031509401702000_2022.03.12.22271872v1.4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/aje\/kws257"},{"key":"2022031509401702000_2022.03.12.22271872v1.5","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Hardelid, P. , Verfuerden, M. , McMenamin, J. , Smyth, R. L. & Gilbert, R. The contribution of child, family and health service factors to respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) hospital admissions in the first 3 years of life: birth cohort study in Scotland, 2009 to 2015. Eurosurveillance 24, (2019).","DOI":"10.2807\/1560-7917.ES.2019.24.1.1800046"},{"key":"2022031509401702000_2022.03.12.22271872v1.6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"144","DOI":"10.2174\/1874285801105010144","article-title":"Risk Factors for Severe Respiratory Syncytial Virus Lower Respiratory Tract Infection","volume":"5","year":"2011","journal-title":"TOMICROJ"},{"key":"2022031509401702000_2022.03.12.22271872v1.7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"ofab159","DOI":"10.1093\/ofid\/ofab159","article-title":"The Global Epidemiology of RSV in Community and Hospitalized Care: Findings From 15 Countries","volume":"8","year":"2021","journal-title":"Open Forum Infectious Diseases"},{"key":"2022031509401702000_2022.03.12.22271872v1.8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"van Summeren, J. et al. Low levels of respiratory syncytial virus activity in Europe during the 2020\/21 season: what can we expect in the coming summer and autumn\/winter? 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