{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"institution":[{"name":"medRxiv"}],"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,22]],"date-time":"2026-01-22T10:56:01Z","timestamp":1769079361505,"version":"3.49.0"},"posted":{"date-parts":[[2024,8,31]]},"group-title":"Epidemiology","reference-count":20,"publisher":"openRxiv","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2024,8,31]],"date-time":"2024-08-31T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1725062400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nc-nd\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"accepted":{"date-parts":[[2024,8,31]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n                <jats:p>\n                  Coccidioidomycosis, or Valley fever, is an infectious disease caused by inhalation of\n                  <jats:italic>Coccidioides<\/jats:italic>\n                  spp., fungi found primarily in soils of the southwestern United States. Prior work showed that coccidioidomycosis cases in California sharply increase by nearly 2-fold following wet winters that occur one- and two-years following drought. Statewide drought between 2020-2022 followed by heavy precipitation during the 2022-2023 winter raised concerns over potential increases in coccidioidomycosis cases in the fall of 2023, prompting California Department of Public Health (CDPH) to issue public health alerts. As anticipated, California saw a near record number of cases in 2023, with 9,054 provisional cases reported. During the 2023-2024 California wet season, precipitation was 115% the long-term average, furthering concerns about continued high coccidioidomycosis risk. We developed an ensemble model to forecast coccidioidomycosis cases in California in 2024-2025. Using this model, we predicted a total of 11,846 cases (90% PI: 10,056\u201314,094) in California between April 1, 2023, and March 31, 2024, encompassing the preliminary state report of 10,593. Our model forecasted 12,244 cases statewide between April 1, 2024, and March 31, 2025 \u2014 a 62% increase over the cases reported during the same period two years prior, and on par with the high incidence seen in 2023. The Southern San Joaquin Valley (5,398 cases, 90% PI: 4,556\u20136,442), Southern Coast (3,322, 90% PI: 2,694\u20133,961), and Central Coast (1,207 cases, 90% PI: 867\u20131,585) regions are expected to see the largest number of infections. Our model forecasts that disease incidence will exhibit pronounced seasonality, particularly in endemic regions, with cases rising in June and peaking in November at 1,411 (90% PI: 815\u20132,172) cases statewide \u2013 98% higher than the peak two years prior (714) and nearly as high as the peak in 2023 (1,462). Near-term forecasts have the potential to inform public health messaging to enhance provider and patient awareness, encourage risk reduction practices, and improve recognition and management of coccidioidomycosis.\n                <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1101\/2024.08.30.24312858","type":"posted-content","created":{"date-parts":[[2024,8,31]],"date-time":"2024-08-31T15:40:11Z","timestamp":1725118811000},"source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":4,"title":["Recent and forecasted increases in coccidioidomycosis incidence in California linked to hydroclimatic swings"],"prefix":"10.64898","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3787-170X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Simon K.","family":"Camponuri","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-5104-5418","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Alexandra K.","family":"Heaney","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-3019-4470","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Gail Sondermeyer","family":"Cooksey","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-2595-7354","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Duc J.","family":"Vugia","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Seema","family":"Jain","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-4276-3092","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Daniel L.","family":"Swain","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-2246-7002","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"John","family":"Balmes","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-0223-4615","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Justin V.","family":"Remais","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-1449-4171","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Jennifer R","family":"Head","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"54368","reference":[{"issue":"48","key":"2024090309350579000_2024.08.30.24312858v1.1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1817","DOI":"10.15585\/mmwr.mm6948a4","article-title":"Regional Analysis of Coccidioidomycosis Incidence - California, 2000-2018","volume":"69","year":"2020","journal-title":"Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report"},{"key":"2024090309350579000_2024.08.30.24312858v1.2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Heaney AK , Camponuri SK , Head JR , Collender P , Weaver A , Sondermeyer Cooksey G , et al. Coccidioidomycosis seasonality in California: a longitudinal surveillance study of the climate determinants and spatiotemporal variability of seasonal dynamics, 2000&#x2013;2021. The Lancet Regional Health \u2013 Americas. 2024;38.","DOI":"10.1016\/j.lana.2024.100864"},{"key":"2024090309350579000_2024.08.30.24312858v1.3","unstructured":"Nguyen A , Sondermeyer Cooksey G , Djamba Y , D. V. Coccidioidomycosis in California Provisional Monthly Report, January - July 2024. Sacramento, California: California Department of Public Health; 2024."},{"key":"2024090309350579000_2024.08.30.24312858v1.4","unstructured":"Administration NOaA. Climate at a Glance [Online Tool] 2024 [Available from: https:\/\/www.ncei.noaa.gov\/access\/monitoring\/climate-at-a-glance\/statewide."},{"issue":"10","key":"2024090309350579000_2024.08.30.24312858v1.5","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e793","DOI":"10.1016\/S2542-5196(22)00202-9","article-title":"Effects of precipitation, heat, and drought on incidence and expansion of coccidioidomycosis in western USA: a longitudinal surveillance study","volume":"6","year":"2022","journal-title":"The Lancet Planetary Health"},{"key":"2024090309350579000_2024.08.30.24312858v1.6","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/3761498"},{"key":"2024090309350579000_2024.08.30.24312858v1.7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/mmy\/myy039"},{"key":"2024090309350579000_2024.08.30.24312858v1.8","unstructured":"Potential Increased Risk for Valley Fever Expected [press release]. 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Fugitive Dust Control Measures and Best Practices: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; 2022 [Available from: www.epa.gov\/system\/files\/documents\/2022-02\/fugitive-dust-control-best-practices.pdf."}],"container-title":[],"original-title":[],"link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/syndication.highwire.org\/content\/doi\/10.1101\/2024.08.30.24312858","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,15]],"date-time":"2026-01-15T20:10:45Z","timestamp":1768507845000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"http:\/\/medrxiv.org\/lookup\/doi\/10.1101\/2024.08.30.24312858"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2024,8,31]]},"references-count":20,"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1101\/2024.08.30.24312858","relation":{},"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2024,8,31]]},"subtype":"preprint"}}