{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"institution":[{"name":"medRxiv"}],"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,16]],"date-time":"2026-01-16T13:35:59Z","timestamp":1768570559802,"version":"3.49.0"},"posted":{"date-parts":[[2025,1,6]]},"group-title":"Epidemiology","reference-count":59,"publisher":"openRxiv","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,1,6]],"date-time":"2025-01-06T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1736121600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nd\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"accepted":{"date-parts":[[2025,1,6]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n                <jats:sec>\n                  <jats:title>Objective(s)<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>To predict the burden of HIV in the United States (US) nationally and by region, transmission type, and race\/ethnicity through 2030.<\/jats:p>\n                <\/jats:sec>\n                <jats:sec>\n                  <jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>\n                    Using publicly available data from the CDC NCHHSTP\n                    <jats:italic>AtlasPlus<\/jats:italic>\n                    dashboard, we generated 11-year prospective forecasts of incident HIV diagnoses nationally and by region (South, non-South), race\/ethnicity (White, Hispanic\/Latino, Black\/African American), and transmission type (Injection-Drug Use, Male-to-Male Sexual Contact (MMSC), and Heterosexual Contact (HSC)). We employed weighted (W) and unweighted (UW)\n                    <jats:italic>n<\/jats:italic>\n                    -sub-epidemic ensemble models, calibrated using 12 years of historical data (2008-2019), and forecasted trends for 2020-2030. We compared results to identify persistent, concerning trends across models.\n                  <\/jats:p>\n                <\/jats:sec>\n                <jats:sec>\n                  <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>We projected substantial decreases in incident HIV diagnoses nationally (W: 27.9%, UW: 21.9%), and in the South (W:18.0%, UW: 9.2%) and non-South (W: 21.2%, UW: 19.5%) from 2019 to 2030. However, concerning non-decreasing trends were observed nationally in key sub-populations during this period: Hispanic\/Latino persons (W: 1.4%, UW: 2.6%), Hispanic\/Latino MMSC (W: 9.0%, UW: 9.9%), people who inject drugs (PWID) (W: 25.6%, UW: 9.2%), and White PWID (W: 3.5%, UW: 44.9%). The rising trends among Hispanic\/Latino MMSC and overall PWID were consistent across the South and non-South regions.<\/jats:p>\n                <\/jats:sec>\n                <jats:sec>\n                  <jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>\n                    Although the forecasted national-level decrease in the number of incident HIV diagnoses is encouraging, the US is unlikely to achieve the\n                    <jats:italic>Ending the HIV Epidemic in the U.S.<\/jats:italic>\n                    goal of a 90% reduction in HIV incidence by 2030. Additionally, the observed increases among specific subpopulations highlight the importance of a targeted and equitable approach to effectively combat HIV in the US.\n                  <\/jats:p>\n                <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1101\/2025.01.06.25320033","type":"posted-content","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,1,6]],"date-time":"2025-01-06T22:20:16Z","timestamp":1736202016000},"source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["The Future of HIV: Challenges in meeting the 2030\n                  <i>Ending the HIV Epidemic in the U.S. (EHE)<\/i>\n                  reduction goal"],"prefix":"10.64898","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0007-2524-369X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Amanda M","family":"Bleichrodt","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-2476-9370","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Justin T","family":"Okano","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-5496-2529","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Isaac Ch","family":"Fung","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-2194-2251","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Gerardo","family":"Chowell","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-4342-3911","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Sally","family":"Blower","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"54368","reference":[{"key":"2025010809101126000_2025.01.06.25320033v1.1","unstructured":"Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. 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