{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"institution":[{"name":"medRxiv"}],"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,16]],"date-time":"2026-01-16T07:46:04Z","timestamp":1768549564649,"version":"3.49.0"},"posted":{"date-parts":[[2020,3,31]]},"group-title":"Epidemiology","reference-count":8,"publisher":"openRxiv","content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"accepted":{"date-parts":[[2020,4,7]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n                <jats:p>The Coronavirus (COVID-19) is a world pandemic that has been affecting Portugal since 2 of March 2020. Portuguese government has been making efforts to contradict the exponential growth through social isolation measures. We have developed a mathematical model to predict the impact of such measures in the number of infected cases and peak of infection. We estimate the peak to be around 2 million infected cases by the beginning of May if no additional measures are taken. The model shows that current measures effectively isolated 25-30% of the population, contributing for some reduction on the infection peak. Importantly, our simulations show that the infection burden can be further reduced with higher isolation degree, providing information for a second intervention.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1101\/2020.03.28.20046250","type":"posted-content","created":{"date-parts":[[2020,3,31]],"date-time":"2020-03-31T16:53:45Z","timestamp":1585673625000},"source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":1,"title":["Predicting the evolution and control of COVID-19 pandemic in Portugal"],"prefix":"10.64898","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-5489-8790","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Ricardo J.","family":"Pais","sequence":"first","affiliation":[]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-0176-5585","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Nuno","family":"Taveira","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]}],"member":"54368","reference":[{"key":"2020112213250786000_2020.03.28.20046250v2.1","unstructured":"WHO. Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) Situation Report \u201362 [Internet]. 2020. Available: https:\/\/www.who.int\/docs\/default-source\/coronaviruse\/situation-reports\/20200322-sitrep-62-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=755c76cd_2"},{"key":"2020112213250786000_2020.03.28.20046250v2.2","unstructured":"Christopher J.L. Murray . Forecasting COVID-19 impact on hospital bed-days, ICU-days, ventilator-days and deaths by US state in the next 4 months Key Points [Internet]. 2020. doi:MEDRXIV\/2020\/043752"},{"key":"2020112213250786000_2020.03.28.20046250v2.3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S1473-3099(20)30243-7"},{"key":"2020112213250786000_2020.03.28.20046250v2.4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/s40249-020-00640-3"},{"key":"2020112213250786000_2020.03.28.20046250v2.5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/1469-0691.12308"},{"key":"2020112213250786000_2020.03.28.20046250v2.6","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1056\/nejmoa2001316"},{"key":"2020112213250786000_2020.03.28.20046250v2.7","unstructured":"Eberhard O. Voit . Computational Analysis of Biochemical Systems: A Practical Guide for Biochemists and Molecular Biologists. Cambridge University Press; 2000."},{"key":"2020112213250786000_2020.03.28.20046250v2.8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.socnet.2007.04.005"}],"container-title":[],"original-title":[],"link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/syndication.highwire.org\/content\/doi\/10.1101\/2020.03.28.20046250","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,15]],"date-time":"2026-01-15T13:35:53Z","timestamp":1768484153000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"http:\/\/medrxiv.org\/lookup\/doi\/10.1101\/2020.03.28.20046250"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2020,3,31]]},"references-count":8,"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1101\/2020.03.28.20046250","relation":{"is-preprint-of":[{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.12688\/f1000research.23401.1","asserted-by":"subject"}]},"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2020,3,31]]},"subtype":"preprint"}}