{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2025,9,20]],"date-time":"2025-09-20T19:05:39Z","timestamp":1758395139980,"version":"3.41.2"},"reference-count":10,"publisher":"Emerald","issue":"10","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2009,10,16]],"date-time":"2009-10-16T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1255651200000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/www.emerald.com\/insight\/site-policies"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2009,10,16]]},"abstract":"<jats:sec><jats:title content-type=\"abstract-heading\">Purpose<\/jats:title><jats:p>With frequent floods occurring, and the fast economic development in China, attention must be paid to flood prevention, water supply, and forecasting precision. In particular, mid\u2010 and long\u2010term runoff prediction is being paid more and more attention by researchers, and it is also the most difficult problem to solve. The purpose of this paper is to apply chaos phase space theory to forecast river run off.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title content-type=\"abstract-heading\">Design\/methodology\/approach<\/jats:title><jats:p>Because the hydrologic system is a complicated huge system, there exist high non\u2010linear characteristics in the space\u2010time change of hydrologic factors. According to theory of chaotic phase space, the paper established four models of the single\u2010point, multi\u2010point, lineal, and three\u2010parameter <jats:italic>D<\/jats:italic>(<jats:italic>m<\/jats:italic>,<jats:italic>\u03c4<\/jats:italic>,<jats:italic>k<\/jats:italic>) models, they have stronger non\u2010linear mapping function and much more information in the time series than traditional ways.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title content-type=\"abstract-heading\">Findings<\/jats:title><jats:p>The results of calculation show that the models are highly effective and worthy of popularization and application. It is reasonable and superior to use these models in mid\u2010 and long\u2010term hydrologic prediction.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title content-type=\"abstract-heading\">Research limitations\/implications<\/jats:title><jats:p>The method cannot reduce or eliminate the un\u2010prediction parts caused by the inner random factors, such as the noise information of the observed data.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title content-type=\"abstract-heading\">Practical implications<\/jats:title><jats:p>The models are applied in the long\u2010term runoff prediction of Baishan reservoir.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title content-type=\"abstract-heading\">Originality\/value<\/jats:title><jats:p>The new approach of hydrology forecasting due to the theory of chaotic phase space. The paper is aimed at hydrology forecasting researches and engineers, especially those who dealt with the mid\u2010 and long\u2010term prediction.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1108\/03684920910994367","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2009,11,14]],"date-time":"2009-11-14T07:01:16Z","timestamp":1258182076000},"page":"1835-1842","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":5,"title":["Similarity model of chaos phase space and its application in mid\u2010 and long\u2010term hydrologic prediction"],"prefix":"10.1108","volume":"38","author":[{"given":"Liping","family":"Zhang","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Jun","family":"Xia","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Xingyuan","family":"Song","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Xiaofeng","family":"Cheng","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"140","reference":[{"key":"key2022021819530371600_b3","unstructured":"Ding, J., Deng, Y. and Hu, J. (1995), \u201cThe approach to flood prediction based on a phase space of flood time sequence\u201d, Journal of Chengdo University of Science and Technology, No. 4, pp. 7\u201011."},{"key":"key2022021819530371600_b4","unstructured":"Hu, J., Ding, J. and Deng, Y. (1996), \u201cPreliminary study on the chaotic behavior of flood flows\u201d, Advances in Water Science, Vol. 7 No. 3, pp. 227\u201030."},{"key":"key2022021819530371600_b10","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Lin, Y. (1998), \u201cDiscontinuity: a weakness of calculus and beginning of a new era\u201d, Kybernetes: The International Journal of Systems & Cybernetics, Vol. 27 Nos 6\/7, pp. 614\u201018.","DOI":"10.1108\/03684929810223021"},{"key":"key2022021819530371600_b8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Lin, Y. 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(1981), \u201cDetecting strange attractors in fluid turbulence\u201d, in Rand, D. and Young, L.S. (Eds), Dynamical Systems and Turbulence, Springer, Berlin.","DOI":"10.1007\/BFb0091924"},{"key":"key2022021819530371600_b7","unstructured":"Wang, D., Xia, J. and Zhang, L. (2002), \u201cChaos analysis of monthly precipitation time series in North\u2010east area\u201d, Water Resources and Power, Vol. 20 No. 3, pp. 17\u201020."},{"key":"key2022021819530371600_b2","unstructured":"Wang, W., Ye, M. and Chen, X. 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