{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,12]],"date-time":"2026-06-12T00:50:44Z","timestamp":1781225444940,"version":"3.54.1"},"reference-count":15,"publisher":"Emerald","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2005,2,1]],"date-time":"2005-02-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1107216000000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/www.emerald.com\/insight\/site-policies"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2005,2,1]]},"abstract":"<jats:sec><jats:title content-type=\"abstract-heading\">Purpose<\/jats:title><jats:p>Valuation is the process of estimating price. The methods used to determine value attempt to model the thought processes of the market and thus estimate price by reference to observed historic data. This information is utilised in the discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation model to determine the single point valuation figure. However, the valuation will be affected by uncertainties: uncertainty in the comparable data available; uncertainty in the current and future market conditions and uncertainty in the specific inputs for the subject property. These input uncertainties will translate into an uncertainty with the output figure, the estimate of price. This paper discusses ways in which uncertainty can be incorporated into the DCF model.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title content-type=\"abstract-heading\">Design\/methodology\/approach<\/jats:title><jats:p>This paper looks at the way in which uncertainty can be incorporated into the explicit DCF model. This is done by recognising that the input variables are uncertain and will have a probability distribution pertaining to each of them. Thus by utilising a probability\u2010based valuation model (using Crystal Ball) it is possible to incorporate uncertainty into the analysis and address the shortcomings of the current model.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title content-type=\"abstract-heading\">Findings<\/jats:title><jats:p>The outcome of introducing uncertainty in the inputs is to produce a range of different answers. The central tendency of this distribution is very close to the single point estimate of the static model, yet the user of the technique now benefits from an understanding of the upside and downside risk pertaining to this single point estimate.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title content-type=\"abstract-heading\">Originality\/value<\/jats:title><jats:p>This study contributes significantly to the practical application of probability\u2010based models to valuation. In particular, the findings from the study will be useful for clients to understand better the context in which a valuation figure is provided to them.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1108\/14635780510575102","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2005,2,14]],"date-time":"2005-02-14T19:56:36Z","timestamp":1108410996000},"page":"75-89","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":60,"title":["Discounted cash flow: accounting for uncertainty"],"prefix":"10.1108","volume":"23","author":[{"given":"Nick","family":"French","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Laura","family":"Gabrielli","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"140","reference":[{"key":"key2022031719415092700_b2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Byrne, P. (1996), \u201cFuzzy analysis: a vague way of dealing with uncertainty in real estate analysis\u201d, Journal of Property Valuation and Investment, Vol. 13 No. 3, pp. 22\u201041.","DOI":"10.1108\/14635789510088591"},{"key":"key2022031719415092700_b3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Crosby, N., Lavers, A. and Murdoch, J. (1998), \u201cProperty valuation variance and the \u2018margin of error\u2019 in the UK\u201d, Journal of Property Research, Vol. 15 No. 4, pp. 305\u201030.","DOI":"10.1080\/095999198368310"},{"key":"key2022031719415092700_b5","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"French, N. (1997), \u201cMarket information management for better valuations: concepts and definitions of price and worth\u201d, Journal of Property Valuation and Investment, Vol. 15 No. 5, pp. 403\u201011.","DOI":"10.1108\/14635789710189164"},{"key":"key2022031719415092700_b6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"French, N. and Gabrielli, L. (2004), \u201cThe uncertainty of valuation\u201d, Journal of Property Valuation and Investment, Vol. 22 No. 6, pp. 484\u2010500.","DOI":"10.1108\/14635780410569470"},{"key":"key2022031719415092700_b8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Mallinson, M. and French, N. (2000), \u201cUncertainty in property valuation: the nature and relevance of uncertainty and how it might be measured and reported\u201d, Journal of Property Investment and Finance, Vol. 18 No. 1, pp. 13\u201032.","DOI":"10.1108\/14635780010316636"},{"key":"key2022031719415092700_b9","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Peto, R. (1997), \u201cMarket information management for better valuations: data availability and application\u201d, Journal of Property Valuation and Investment, Vol. 15 No. 5, pp. 411\u201022.","DOI":"10.1108\/EUM0000000004423"},{"key":"key2022031719415092700_b10","unstructured":"RICS (1994), Mallinson Report \u2013 Commercial Property Valuations, Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors, London."},{"key":"key2022031719415092700_b12","unstructured":"RICS (1997a), Commercia Investment Property \u2013 Valuation Methods: An Information Paper, Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors, London."},{"key":"key2022031719415092700_b13","unstructured":"RICS (1997b), Calculation of Worth: An Information Paper, Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors, London."},{"key":"key2022031719415092700_b14","unstructured":"RICS (2002), The Carsberg Report, Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors."},{"key":"key2022031719415092700_frg1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Baum, A. and MacGregor, B. (1992), \u201cExplicit valuations and the future of property investment\u201d, Journal of Property Valuation and Investment, Vol. 10 No. 4, pp. 709\u201024.","DOI":"10.1108\/14635789210031334"},{"key":"key2022031719415092700_frg2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"French, N. (1996), \u201cInvestment valuations: developments from the Mallinson Report\u201d, Journal of Property Valuation and Investment, Vol. 14 No. 5, pp. 48\u201058.","DOI":"10.1108\/14635789610154280"},{"key":"key2022031719415092700_frg3","unstructured":"IVSC (2001), IVSC International Valuation Standards, International Valuation Standards Committee, London."},{"key":"key2022031719415092700_frg4","unstructured":"RICS (1996), RICS RICS Appraisal and Valuation Manual, Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors, London."},{"key":"key2022031719415092700_frg5","unstructured":"RICS (2003), RICS Appraisal and Valuation Standards, Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors, London."}],"container-title":["Journal of Property Investment &amp; Finance"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"http:\/\/www.emeraldinsight.com\/doi\/full-xml\/10.1108\/14635780510575102","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/www.emerald.com\/insight\/content\/doi\/10.1108\/14635780510575102\/full\/xml","content-type":"application\/xml","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/www.emerald.com\/insight\/content\/doi\/10.1108\/14635780510575102\/full\/html","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,7,25]],"date-time":"2025-07-25T00:28:44Z","timestamp":1753403324000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"http:\/\/www.emerald.com\/jpif\/article\/23\/1\/75-89\/236098"}},"subtitle":[],"editor":[{"given":"Eamonn","family":"D'Arcy","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"editor"}]}],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2005,2,1]]},"references-count":15,"journal-issue":{"issue":"1","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2005,2,1]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1108\/14635780510575102"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1108\/14635780510575102","relation":{},"ISSN":["1463-578X"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1463-578X","type":"print"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2005,2,1]]}}}