{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,20]],"date-time":"2026-05-20T02:13:40Z","timestamp":1779243220355,"version":"3.51.4"},"reference-count":34,"publisher":"Emerald","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2021,10,20]],"date-time":"2021-10-20T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1634688000000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/www.emerald.com\/insight\/site-policies"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["AJIM"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2022,1,3]]},"abstract":"<jats:sec><jats:title content-type=\"abstract-subheading\">Purpose<\/jats:title><jats:p>The purpose of this paper is to predict bibliometric indicators based on ARIMA models and to study the short-term trends of bibliometric indicators.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title content-type=\"abstract-subheading\">Design\/methodology\/approach<\/jats:title><jats:p>This paper establishes a non-stationary time series ARIMA (<jats:italic>p<\/jats:italic>, <jats:italic>d<\/jats:italic>, <jats:italic>q<\/jats:italic>) model for forecasting based on the bibliometric index data of 13 journals in the library intelligence category selected from the Chinese Social Sciences Citation Index (CSSCI) as the data source database for the period 1998\u20132018, and uses ACF and PACF methods for parameter estimation to predict the development trend of the bibliometric index in the next 5 years. The predicted model was also subjected to error analysis.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title content-type=\"abstract-subheading\">Findings<\/jats:title><jats:p>ARIMA models are feasible for predicting bibliometric indicators. The model predicted the trend of the four bibliometric indicators in the next 5 years, in which the number of publications showed a decreasing trend and the H-value, average citations and citations showed an increasing trend. Error analysis of the model data showed that the average absolute percentage error of the four bibliometric indicators was within 5%, indicating that the model predicted well.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title content-type=\"abstract-subheading\">Research limitations\/implications<\/jats:title><jats:p>This study has some limitations. 13 Chinese journals were selected in the field of Library and Information Science as the research objects. However, the scope of research based on bibliometric indicators of Chinese journals is relatively small and cannot represent the evolution trend of the entire discipline. Therefore, in the future, the authors will select different fields and different sources for further research.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title content-type=\"abstract-subheading\">Originality\/value<\/jats:title><jats:p>This study predicts the trend changes of bibliometric indicators in the next 5 years to understand the trend of bibliometric indicators, which is beneficial for further in-depth research. At the same time, it provides a new and effective method for predicting bibliometric indicators.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1108\/ajim-03-2021-0072","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2021,10,20]],"date-time":"2021-10-20T20:26:35Z","timestamp":1634761595000},"page":"94-109","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":16,"title":["An ARIMA-based study of bibliometric index prediction"],"prefix":"10.1108","volume":"74","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-2456-222X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Yanhui","family":"Song","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Jiayi","family":"Cao","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"140","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2021,10,20]]},"reference":[{"issue":"2","key":"key2021122804205764400_ref001","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"485","DOI":"10.1016\/j.joi.2019.02.011","article-title":"Predicting citation counts based on deep neural network learning techniques","volume":"13","year":"2019","journal-title":"Journal of Informetrics"},{"issue":"7415","key":"key2021122804205764400_ref002","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"201","DOI":"10.1038\/489201a","article-title":"Predicting scientific success","volume":"489","year":"2012","journal-title":"Nature: International Weekly Journal of Science"},{"key":"key2021122804205764400_ref016","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"106","DOI":"10.1109\/UKSim.2014.67","article-title":"Stock price prediction using the ARIMA model","year":"2014"},{"issue":"3","key":"key2021122804205764400_ref003","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"993","DOI":"10.1007\/s11192-017-2618-1","article-title":"Predicting scientific impact based on h-index","volume":"114","year":"2018","journal-title":"Scientometrics"},{"key":"key2021122804205764400_ref004","first-page":"351","article-title":"Towards a stratified learning approach to predict future citation counts","volume-title":"14th IEEE\/ACM Joint Conference on Digital Libraries","year":"2014"},{"issue":"3","key":"key2021122804205764400_ref005","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1014","DOI":"10.1109\/TPWRS.2002.804943","article-title":"ARIMA models to predict next-day electricity prices","volume":"18","year":"2003","journal-title":"IEEE Transactions on Power Systems"},{"issue":"1","key":"key2021122804205764400_ref006","first-page":"31","article-title":"Analysis on bibliometric indicators in discipline assessment activity","volume":"52","year":"2008","journal-title":"Library And Information Service"},{"issue":"1","key":"key2021122804205764400_ref007","first-page":"37","article-title":"Research on the evaluation of foreign subjects and its bibliometric evaluation index","volume":"31","year":"2008","journal-title":"Information Studies: Theory and Application"},{"issue":"1","key":"key2021122804205764400_ref008","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"257","DOI":"10.1007\/s11192-010-0160-5","article-title":"Using content-based and bibliometric features for machine learning models to predict citation counts in the biomedical literature","volume":"85","year":"2010","journal-title":"Scientometrics"},{"key":"key2021122804205764400_ref009","first-page":"24","article-title":"Predicting citation count of Bioinformatics papers within four years of publication","volume":"25","year":"2009","journal-title":"Bioinformatics"},{"issue":"5","key":"key2021122804205764400_ref010","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"751","DOI":"10.1007\/s00477-009-0361-8","article-title":"ARIMA forecasting of ambient air pollutants (O3, NO, NO2 and CO)","volume":"24","year":"2010","journal-title":"Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment"},{"issue":"3","key":"key2021122804205764400_ref011","article-title":"Short-term traffic flow prediction using seasonal ARIMA model with limited input data","volume":"7","year":"2015","journal-title":"European Transport Research Review"},{"issue":"4","key":"key2021122804205764400_ref012","first-page":"54","article-title":"H-Index time trends analysis based on author contribution","volume":"34","year":"2015","journal-title":"Journal of Intelligence"},{"issue":"1","key":"key2021122804205764400_ref013","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"22","DOI":"10.1016\/j.crte.2012.12.001","article-title":"Trend analysis and ARIMA modelling of pre-monsoon rainfall data for western India","volume":"345","year":"2013","journal-title":"Comptes Rendus Geoscience"},{"issue":"2","key":"key2021122804205764400_ref014","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1233","DOI":"10.1007\/s11192-014-1279-6","article-title":"Citation impact prediction for scientific papers using stepwise regression analysis","volume":"101","year":"2014","journal-title":"Scientometrics"},{"issue":"1","key":"key2021122804205764400_ref015","first-page":"2546","article-title":"ARIMA-based frequency-decomposed modeling of wind speed time series","volume":"31","year":"2016","journal-title":"IEEE Transactions on Power Systems"},{"key":"key2021122804205764400_fur1","first-page":"11","article-title":"The future h-index is an excellent way to predict scientists' future impact","volume":"40","year":"2013","journal-title":"Medical Physics"},{"issue":"1","key":"key2021122804205764400_fur3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"169","DOI":"10.1007\/s11192-006-0147-4","article-title":"A Hirsch-type index for journals","volume":"69","year":"2006","journal-title":"Scientometrics"},{"key":"key2021122804205764400_fur4","first-page":"259","article-title":"Will this paper increase your h -index?","volume":"9286","year":"2015","journal-title":"Web Search and Data Mining"},{"issue":"2","key":"key2021122804205764400_fur5","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"342","DOI":"10.1148\/radiol.09090626","article-title":"Bibliometric indicators: quality measurements of scientific publication","volume":"255","year":"2010","journal-title":"Radiology"},{"issue":"1","key":"key2021122804205764400_fur6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"153","DOI":"10.1007\/s11192-009-0066-2","article-title":"Is there a place for a mock h -index?","volume":"84","year":"2010","journal-title":"Scientometrics"},{"issue":"5","key":"key2021122804205764400_fur7","first-page":"66","article-title":"A study on the computing method of the individual's academic impact over time","volume":"37","year":"2017","journal-title":"Journal of Modern Information"},{"issue":"2","key":"key2021122804205764400_fur8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"410","DOI":"10.1002\/asi.20973","article-title":"Simulating growth of the h-index","volume":"60","year":"2009","journal-title":"Journal of the American Society for Information Science and Technology"},{"issue":"49","key":"key2021122804205764400_fur9","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"19193","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.0707962104","article-title":"Does the h index have predictive power?","volume":"104","year":"2007","journal-title":"Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America"},{"issue":"3","key":"key2021122804205764400_fur10","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"455","DOI":"10.1002\/asi.22776","article-title":"Correlation over time for citations to mathematics articles","volume":"64","year":"2013","journal-title":"Journal of the American Society for Information Science and Technology"},{"issue":"1","key":"key2021122804205764400_fur11","first-page":"91","article-title":"Citation analysis and research impact of National Metallurgical Laboratory, India during 1972-2007: a case study","volume":"15","year":"2010","journal-title":"Malaysian Journal of Library and Information Science"},{"key":"key2021122804205764400_fur12","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"94","DOI":"10.1016\/j.envsoft.2015.10.007","article-title":"Can we predict citation counts of environmental modelling papers? Fourteen bibliographic and categorical variables predict less than 30% of the variability in citation counts","volume":"75","year":"2016","journal-title":"Environmental Modelling and Software"},{"issue":"1","key":"key2021122804205764400_fur13","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2","DOI":"10.1108\/AJIM-01-2013-0001","article-title":"A note on the interpolated or real-valued h -index with a generalization for fractional counting","volume":"66","year":"2014","journal-title":"Aslib Journal of Information Management"},{"issue":"11","key":"key2021122804205764400_fur14","first-page":"74","article-title":"An empirical study on the evaluation of academic influence from the perspective of time series","volume":"37","year":"2017","journal-title":"Journal of Modern Information"},{"issue":"2","key":"key2021122804205764400_fur15","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"215","DOI":"10.1108\/AJIM-01-2017-0027","article-title":"The most influential researchers in information behaviour an integrative view on influence indicators","volume":"69","year":"2017","journal-title":"Aslib Journal of Information Management"},{"issue":"3","key":"key2021122804205764400_fur16","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"642","DOI":"10.1016\/j.joi.2015.06.005","article-title":"Predicting the long-term citation impact of recent publications","volume":"9","year":"2015","journal-title":"Journal of Informetrics"},{"key":"key2021122804205764400_fur17","first-page":"1","article-title":"Prediction and application of article potential citations based on nonlinear citation-forecasting combined model","year":"2021","journal-title":"Scientometrics (prepublish)"},{"issue":"2","key":"key2021122804205764400_fur18","first-page":"238","article-title":"Bibliometric analysis of global circular RNA research trends from 2007 to 2018","volume":"23","year":"2021","journal-title":"Cell Journal"},{"key":"key2021122804205764400_fur19","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3389\/fpsyg.2021.669000","article-title":"Coronary heart disease and depression or anxiety: a bibliometric analysis","volume":"12","year":"2021","journal-title":"Frontiers in Psychology"}],"container-title":["Aslib Journal of Information Management"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.emerald.com\/insight\/content\/doi\/10.1108\/AJIM-03-2021-0072\/full\/xml","content-type":"application\/xml","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/www.emerald.com\/insight\/content\/doi\/10.1108\/AJIM-03-2021-0072\/full\/html","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,7,24]],"date-time":"2025-07-24T23:00:30Z","timestamp":1753398030000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"http:\/\/www.emerald.com\/ajim\/article\/74\/1\/94-109\/60678"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2021,10,20]]},"references-count":34,"journal-issue":{"issue":"1","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2021,10,20]]},"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2022,1,3]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1108\/AJIM-03-2021-0072"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1108\/ajim-03-2021-0072","relation":{},"ISSN":["2050-3806"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2050-3806","type":"print"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2021,10,20]]}}}