{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,3,20]],"date-time":"2026-03-20T14:42:40Z","timestamp":1774017760499,"version":"3.50.1"},"reference-count":23,"publisher":"Emerald","issue":"2","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2020,7,21]],"date-time":"2020-07-21T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1595289600000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/www.emerald.com\/insight\/site-policies"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["GS"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2020,7,21]]},"abstract":"<jats:sec><jats:title content-type=\"abstract-subheading\">Purpose<\/jats:title><jats:p>To develop the theory and application of the grey prediction model, this investigation constructs a novel discrete grey Riccati model termed DGRM(1,1).<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title content-type=\"abstract-subheading\">Design\/methodology\/approach<\/jats:title><jats:p>By examining a special kind of Riccati difference equation and the structure of the conventional discrete grey model (DGM), we advance a novel DGRM, and the model's prediction effect is evaluated by two numerical examples and an application case and compared with that of other conventional grey models.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title content-type=\"abstract-subheading\">Findings<\/jats:title><jats:p>The average relative simulation error of DGRM(1,1) does not change if the model is built after the original sequence has been transformed by a multiplier, and the new model is suitable to predict monotonically increasing, monotonically decreasing and unimodal sequences.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title content-type=\"abstract-subheading\">Practical implications<\/jats:title><jats:p>DGRM(1,1) is utilized to forecast the development cost of a small plane owned by the Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC) with an original data sequence from 2006 to 2013. The outcomes indicate that DGRM(1,1) exhibits high precision and potential in development cost prediction.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title content-type=\"abstract-subheading\">Originality\/value<\/jats:title><jats:p>Combining the Riccati difference equation with the conventional DGM, the author advances a new grey model that is suitable to predict three kinds of data series with different changing trends.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1108\/gs-03-2020-0034","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2020,7,21]],"date-time":"2020-07-21T10:02:11Z","timestamp":1595325731000},"page":"309-326","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":5,"title":["A novel discrete grey Riccati model and its application"],"prefix":"10.1108","volume":"11","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-7989-4542","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Liang","family":"Zeng","sequence":"first","affiliation":[]}],"member":"140","reference":[{"issue":"1","key":"key2021031005045808700_ref001","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"278","DOI":"10.1016\/j.chaos.2006.08.024","article-title":"Application of the novel nonlinear grey Bernoulli model for forecasting unemployment rate","volume":"37","year":"2008","journal-title":"Chaos, Solitons and Fractals"},{"issue":"1","key":"key2021031005045808700_ref002","first-page":"139","article-title":"On existence of solutions of difference Riccati equation","volume":"39B","year":"2019","journal-title":"Acta Mathematica Scientia"},{"issue":"6","key":"key2021031005045808700_ref003","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"4399","DOI":"10.1016\/j.apm.2012.09.052","article-title":"A novel grey forecasting model and its optimization","volume":"37","year":"2013","journal-title":"Applied Mathematical Modelling"},{"issue":"5","key":"key2021031005045808700_ref004","first-page":"953","article-title":"Morbid property of grey prediction model with time-power","volume":"31","year":"2016","journal-title":"Control and Decision"},{"issue":"5","key":"key2021031005045808700_ref005","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"288","DOI":"10.1016\/S0167-6911(82)80025-X","article-title":"Control problem of grey systems","volume":"1","year":"1982","journal-title":"System and Control Letters"},{"issue":"10","key":"key2021031005045808700_ref006","first-page":"1835","article-title":"Optimized background value in grey Verhulst model and its application","volume":"30","year":"2015","journal-title":"Control and Decision"},{"issue":"3","key":"key2021031005045808700_ref007","first-page":"58","article-title":"Grey forecasting model with polynomial term and its optimization","volume":"29","year":"2017","journal-title":"Journal of Grey System"},{"key":"key2021031005045808700_ref008","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"4876","DOI":"10.1016\/j.apm.2015.12.021","article-title":"Research on the novel recursive discrete multivariate grey prediction model and its applications","volume":"40","year":"2016","journal-title":"Applied Mathematical Modelling"},{"issue":"4","key":"key2021031005045808700_ref009","first-page":"33","article-title":"Improved GM(1,1) model based on Simpson formula and its applications","volume":"31","year":"2019","journal-title":"Journal of Grey System"},{"issue":"10","key":"key2021031005045808700_ref010","first-page":"2247","article-title":"Grey GM(1,1,t\u03b1) model with time power and its application","volume":"32","year":"2012","journal-title":"System Engineering - 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