{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,19]],"date-time":"2026-01-19T05:58:28Z","timestamp":1768802308145,"version":"3.49.0"},"reference-count":42,"publisher":"Emerald","issue":"2","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,2,20]],"date-time":"2025-02-20T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1740009600000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/www.emerald.com\/insight\/site-policies"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["GS"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2025,3,25]]},"abstract":"<jats:sec><jats:title content-type=\"abstract-subheading\">Purpose<\/jats:title><jats:p>This study aims to design a novel seasonal discrete grey model for forecasting monthly natural gas consumption by incorporating damping accumulation and time-polynomial term.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title content-type=\"abstract-subheading\">Design\/methodology\/approach<\/jats:title><jats:p>Considering the principle of new information priority and nonlinear patterns in the original series of monthly natural gas consumption, we establish a novel discrete seasonal grey model by adding the damping accumulation and time-polynomial term into the existing model. In addition, the order of damping accumulation and the coefficient of time-power term can be determined by the moth flame optimization (MFO) algorithm.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title content-type=\"abstract-subheading\">Findings<\/jats:title><jats:p>The empirical cases show that the proposed model has a better prediction performance when compared with other benchmark models, including six seasonal grey models, one statistical model and one artificial intelligent model. Based on forecasts, the proposed model can be considered a promising tool for monthly natural gas consumption (NGC) in US.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title content-type=\"abstract-subheading\">Originality\/value<\/jats:title><jats:p>By combining the damping accumulation and the time-polynomial term, a new discrete seasonal grey model for improving the prediction performance of the existing grey model is proposed. The\u00a0properties of the proposed model are given, and the newly-designed model is initially applied to predict monthly NGC in US.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1108\/gs-06-2024-0073","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,2,19]],"date-time":"2025-02-19T14:39:23Z","timestamp":1739975963000},"page":"305-334","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":4,"title":["A novel damping discrete grey model\u00a0with time-polynomial term\u00a0for\u00a0forecasting monthly natural\u00a0gas 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