{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,3,3]],"date-time":"2026-03-03T19:09:48Z","timestamp":1772564988316,"version":"3.50.1"},"reference-count":19,"publisher":"Emerald","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2017,2,6]],"date-time":"2017-02-06T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1486339200000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/www.emerald.com\/insight\/site-policies"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["GS"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2017,2,6]]},"abstract":"<jats:sec>\n<jats:title content-type=\"abstract-subheading\">Purpose<\/jats:title>\n<jats:p>The purpose of this paper is to predict the population of Anhui province. The authors analyze the trend of the main demographic indicators.<\/jats:p>\n<\/jats:sec>\n<jats:sec>\n<jats:title content-type=\"abstract-subheading\">Design\/methodology\/approach<\/jats:title>\n<jats:p>On the basis of the main methods of statistics, this paper studies the tendency of the population of Anhui province. It mainly analyzes the sex structure and the age structure of the current population. Based on the GM(1,1) model, this paper forecasts the total population, the population sex structure, and the population age structure of Anhui province in the next ten years.<\/jats:p>\n<\/jats:sec>\n<jats:sec>\n<jats:title content-type=\"abstract-subheading\">Findings<\/jats:title>\n<jats:p>The results show that the total population was controlled well, but there have been many problems of the population structure, such as the aging population, high sex ratio, heavy social dependency burden, and the declining labor force.<\/jats:p>\n<\/jats:sec>\n<jats:sec>\n<jats:title content-type=\"abstract-subheading\">Social implications<\/jats:title>\n<jats:p>This paper forecasts the main indexes of the population of Anhui province and provides policy recommendations for the government and the relevant departments.<\/jats:p>\n<\/jats:sec>\n<jats:sec>\n<jats:title content-type=\"abstract-subheading\">Originality\/value<\/jats:title>\n<jats:p>This paper utilizes data analysis method and the grey forecasting model to study the tendency of the population problems in Anhui province.<\/jats:p>\n<\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1108\/gs-11-2016-0044","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2017,1,12]],"date-time":"2017-01-12T03:18:09Z","timestamp":1484191089000},"page":"19-30","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":12,"title":["Population forecast of Anhui province based on the GM(1,1) model"],"prefix":"10.1108","volume":"7","author":[{"given":"Hong","family":"Gao","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Tianxiang","family":"Yao","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Xiaoru","family":"Kang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"140","reference":[{"issue":"3","key":"key2020120921283164400_ref001","first-page":"82","article-title":"Marriage status analysis on population of Anhui province-based on the \u2018sixth census\u2019 and \u2018fifth census\u2019 data","volume":"37","year":"2016","journal-title":"Journal of Jilin Normal University (Natural Science Edition)"},{"issue":"2","key":"key2020120921283164400_ref015","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"244","DOI":"10.1108\/GS-03-2015-0005","article-title":"Grey systems theory in economics \u2013 bibliometric analysis and applications\u2019 overview","volume":"5","year":"2015","journal-title":"Grey Systems: Theory and Application"},{"issue":"2","key":"key2020120921283164400_ref016","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"263","DOI":"10.1108\/GS-05-2015-0018","article-title":"Grey systems theory in economics \u2013 a historical applications review","volume":"5","year":"2015","journal-title":"Grey Systems: Theory and Application"},{"issue":"5","key":"key2020120921283164400_ref002","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"288","DOI":"10.1016\/S0167-6911(82)80025-X","article-title":"Control problem of grey system","volume":"1","year":"1982","journal-title":"System and Control Letters"},{"key":"key2020120921283164400_ref003","volume-title":"Grey Prediction and Grey Decision","year":"2002"},{"issue":"2","key":"key2020120921283164400_ref004","first-page":"39","article-title":"Economic transition, urbanization and population redistribution in China","volume":"51","year":"2016","journal-title":"Habitat International"},{"issue":"2","key":"key2020120921283164400_ref005","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"196","DOI":"10.1108\/03684920410514139","article-title":"Theory of grey systems: capturing uncertainties of grey information","volume":"33","year":"2004","journal-title":"Kybernetes"},{"issue":"6","key":"key2020120921283164400_ref006","first-page":"30","article-title":"Analysis of Chinese population in twenty-first Century","volume":"33","year":"2009","journal-title":"Population Study"},{"issue":"5","key":"key2020120921283164400_ref007","first-page":"6","article-title":"Evolution and implications of population structure in Anhui in its urbanization","volume":"31","year":"2014","journal-title":"Journal of Anhui University of Technology (Social Science)"},{"key":"key2020120921283164400_ref201","first-page":"4","year":"2010","journal-title":"Grey System Theory and Its Applications"},{"issue":"1","key":"key2020120921283164400_ref008","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2","DOI":"10.1108\/GS-09-2015-0054","article-title":"New progress of grey system theory in the new millennium","volume":"6","year":"2016","journal-title":"Grey Systems: Theory and Application"},{"issue":"9","key":"key2020120921283164400_ref009","first-page":"101","article-title":"Population adjustments in response to local demand shifts in China","volume":"33","year":"2016","journal-title":"Journal of Housing Economics"},{"issue":"5","key":"key2020120921283164400_ref010","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"699","DOI":"10.1016\/j.techfore.2010.01.006","article-title":"On the logistic modeling and forecasting of evolutionary processes: application to human population dynamics","volume":"77","year":"2010","journal-title":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change"},{"key":"key2020120921283164400_ref017","first-page":"110","volume-title":"Management Forecasting and Decision Making Methods","year":"2009"},{"issue":"3","key":"key2020120921283164400_ref011","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"629","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ijforecast.2015.10.002","article-title":"A multilevel functional data method for forecasting population with an application to the United Kingdom","volume":"32","year":"2016","journal-title":"International Journal of Forecasting"},{"issue":"1","key":"key2020120921283164400_ref012","first-page":"93","article-title":"Discrete GM (1, 1) and mechanism of grey forecasting model","volume":"25","year":"2005","journal-title":"System Engineering \u2013 Theory and Practice"},{"issue":"4","key":"key2020120921283164400_ref018","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1894","DOI":"10.1016\/j.apm.2008.03.017","article-title":"On the properties of small sample of GM (1, 1) model","volume":"33","year":"2009","journal-title":"Applied Mathematical Modelling"},{"issue":"3","key":"key2020120921283164400_ref013","first-page":"52","article-title":"The analysis of the floating time expectancy of Anhui province","volume":"31","year":"2015","journal-title":"Population and Society"},{"issue":"1","key":"key2020120921283164400_ref014","first-page":"87","article-title":"Fertility intention for the second child under the selective and universal two-child policies: comparisons and implications","volume":"40","year":"2016","journal-title":"Population Research"}],"container-title":["Grey Systems: Theory and Application"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.emerald.com\/insight\/content\/doi\/10.1108\/GS-11-2016-0044\/full\/xml","content-type":"application\/xml","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/www.emerald.com\/insight\/content\/doi\/10.1108\/GS-11-2016-0044\/full\/html","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,7,25]],"date-time":"2025-07-25T00:46:22Z","timestamp":1753404382000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"http:\/\/www.emerald.com\/gs\/article\/7\/1\/19-30\/204898"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2017,2,6]]},"references-count":19,"journal-issue":{"issue":"1","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2017,2,6]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1108\/GS-11-2016-0044"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1108\/gs-11-2016-0044","relation":{},"ISSN":["2043-9377"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2043-9377","type":"print"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2017,2,6]]}}}